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 Post subject: Re: Brexit; Government's First Proposal to the EU
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 1:02 pm 
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Ave_IT wrote:
• Major financial firms have already shipped thousands of jobs to the EU and many companies are setting up operations over there specifically to avoid Brexit (my own company included).


Not only that, but a draft EU law is being reviewed this week which may require many clearing banks having to move to the EU zone from London, which has gone down like a cup of cold sick in the City.

Quote:
• We’ve already accepted we will have to pay tens of billions as part of the ‘divorce settlement’ but we’re still arguing over exactly how many tens of billions. (Funny how this wasn’t on the side of Boris’s bus isn’t it?).


It still annoys me that Brexiters still refer to it as a divorce settlement. It isn't.

Quote:
• We are now told by pro-Brexiteers in cabinet we have to spend many hundreds of millions building border posts & recruiting staff “just in case” no deal is reached – to show we’re serious apparently. (Again not on the side of the bus).


Irrespective of what deal is reached (if one is), I think it's a given we'll have to recruit more border agency staff because goods will have to be checked. And this game-changing IT system which would allow seamless crossing of the border was nothing more than a fanciful idea (as David Davis said in the cheeky smile kind of way you want to clobber with a brick).

Quote:
• The ports authorities have stated that even an extra delay of just two minutes checking each lorry at Dover will result in queues in excess of 17 miles (they stress this is a very conservative estimate).


It'll be even worse for crossings to and from Ireland, especially if this becomes the border point between the EU and the UK. Ports like Dover has massive parking for lorries about to cross, but there is no setup at the likes of Holyhead. You think the Channel crossing will be bad, although there'll be less traffic to and from Ireland the woefully poor setup there will make it feel just as bad, if not worse than at Dover.

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• If we don’t make a formal agreement with the EU’s ‘open skies’ policies & regulations all flights to and from the EU will stop. Yes – literally stop. We simply don’t have the trained people to make it work.


Which won't just affect business and holiday travel, but a fair percentage of freight too.

Quote:
• We haven’t even heard a credible suggestion of what to do about the Northern Ireland border other than a tentative suggestion about treating the island of Ireland as a border – angrily shot down by the DUP (propping up our government) and by the EU.


I personally think this'll be the biggest problem for the UK. I know they're dancing around it and nobody wants to ruin the GFA, but I get the impression there has to be a hard border between NI and Ireland to protect the EU. The DUP / Unionists won't stand for passport checks between Belfast and the UK because they're British citizens and they should not have to show their passports to cross between different parts of the UK. And the entire point everyone who voted for Brexit was clammering about was protecting the UK from too many immigrants, but now they can just wander up and squat somewhere in Belfast. At the same time the EU has to protect itself from illegal goods: take for instance the famed chlorinated chicken. Say we get the UK/US deal which Trump wants (and will get - apparently the UK delegation who went to the US earlier this year with Liam Fox was so ill-prepared it was likened someone going to Wimbledon with a ping-pong bat) and our food practises were relaxed to the extent where farmers here started to use the same technique, there is a real risk of it being shipped to the EU from Northern Ireland. The EU simply won't allow that to happen.

If anything will torpedo Brexit, I think it'll be Ireland.

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• Theresa May has asked for a “transitional period” where we still pay in to the EU & abide by their rules. No answer when asked if we will adhere to new rules they make during this period – rules we have absolutely no say in.


And aren't the Brexiters happy when they heard we'd still be bound by the ECJ during this transition period. Bless 'em :greensmile:

Quote:
• The EU have now said no agreement to even a transitional period will be made unless we first agree their priorities – divorce bill, EU citizens’ rights post Brexit and the NI border.


As is their right. Article 50 clearly stipulated (and we should know because we helped write it) that the rules about how and when the talks are conducted is decided by the remaining EU states. They said from the outset, no trade talks until the the priorites are sorted out. The UK team start to panic, ask for a transition period. Fine, says the EU. Once the priorities have been sorted.

Quote:
• Signs of cutting a spiffing new deal with Trumps’ America post-Brexit are not looking good. They’ve just supported Boeing in utterly shafting us over the Bombardier deal that could cost us thousands of high-tech jobs ….sadly for the government most in the DUP’s constituencies. They’ve completely ignored Theresa’s strongly worded letter on the subject…….. bodes well for our post Brexit cap-in-hand negotiations doesn’t it?


The main thing here, though, is that this was a spat between the US and Canada: the plant in Belfast was just an unfortunate victim. It does explain why Theresa May was ignored, though: it has nothing to do with her. However, it now looks like the NAFTA agreement could be ripped up, just when the Brexit team are looking at this as being an alternative trading bloc.


Quote:
• Our glorious leaders are engaged in daily public disagreement about what we want and how we should get it.


Embarrassing, isn't it? Unfortunately if Labour were in power I suspect we'd see exactly the same infighting within their party.

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 Post subject: Re: Brexit; Government's First Proposal to the EU
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 1:10 pm 
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The only intelligent way out of this mess would be to call off Brexit. Right now Theresa May is a PM without any power, controlling a party running rings about her. She was made a laughing stock over her snap election, and has reneged on nearly every single manifesto pledge. She wanted to bring back grammar schools, but was shot down. She wanted to introduce a vote on hunting and was shot down. She has accomplished ... absolutely nothing and, the way things are going, is likely to go down as the worst PM ever.

But if she were to call a halt to Brexit and stop Article 50 (which she knows she legally can), it would go down as the bravest political decision ever, even if it costs her her political career.

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 Post subject: Re: Brexit; Government's First Proposal to the EU
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 2:33 pm 

Joined: Sat Sep 25, 2010 9:56 am
Quinny wrote:
The only intelligent way out of this mess would be to call off Brexit. Right now Theresa May is a PM without any power, controlling a party running rings about her. She was made a laughing stock over her snap election, and has reneged on nearly every single manifesto pledge. She wanted to bring back grammar schools, but was shot down. She wanted to introduce a vote on hunting and was shot down. She has accomplished ... absolutely nothing and, the way things are going, is likely to go down as the worst PM ever.

But if she were to call a halt to Brexit and stop Article 50 (which she knows she legally can), it would go down as the bravest political decision ever, even if it costs her her political career.


Absolutely spot on, it would save us further embarrassment, and money.

Don't forget, the majority of Brexiters, only voted that way, for one reason only, to get rid Johnny Foreigner


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit; Government's First Proposal to the EU
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:53 pm 
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Martyn wrote:
Quinny wrote:
The only intelligent way out of this mess would be to call off Brexit. Right now Theresa May is a PM without any power, controlling a party running rings about her. She was made a laughing stock over her snap election, and has reneged on nearly every single manifesto pledge. She wanted to bring back grammar schools, but was shot down. She wanted to introduce a vote on hunting and was shot down. She has accomplished ... absolutely nothing and, the way things are going, is likely to go down as the worst PM ever.

But if she were to call a halt to Brexit and stop Article 50 (which she knows she legally can), it would go down as the bravest political decision ever, even if it costs her her political career.


Absolutely spot on, it would save us further embarrassment, and money.

Don't forget, the majority of Brexiters, only voted that way, for one reason only, to get rid Johnny Foreigner

:sigh:

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 Post subject: Re: Brexit; Government's First Proposal to the EU
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:45 pm 

Joined: Thu Oct 09, 2003 8:24 am
Location: Saltash (or Feltham)
Ultimately we are seeing the problems of referenda - no unified party policy. The Tories problems are well known, but Labour are just as much of a basket case. MacDonald, Gardiner, Abbott all infer staying in the single market is a betrayal of the Brexit vote, yet Starmer their Brexit guy wants to stay in it. Referenda and a free vote mean that no Government of any colour could present a unified front.

I still think we are looking at this through one lens only though. As negotiations progress (or rather don't progress) the anxiety will grow in big players like Germany and Spain. Brexit is not a one way street.


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit; Government's First Proposal to the EU
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 10:46 pm 

Joined: Sat Sep 25, 2010 9:56 am
Frank_Butcher wrote:
Ultimately we are seeing the problems of referenda - no unified party policy. The Tories problems are well known, but Labour are just as much of a basket case. MacDonald, Gardiner, Abbott all infer staying in the single market is a betrayal of the Brexit vote, yet Starmer their Brexit guy wants to stay in it. Referenda and a free vote mean that no Government of any colour could present a unified front.

I still think we are looking at this through one lens only though. As negotiations progress (or rather don't progress) the anxiety will grow in big players like Germany and Spain. Brexit is not a one way street.


Slight clutching at straws here


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit; Government's First Proposal to the EU
PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:42 am 

Joined: Thu Oct 09, 2003 8:24 am
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Martyn wrote:
Frank_Butcher wrote:
Ultimately we are seeing the problems of referenda - no unified party policy. The Tories problems are well known, but Labour are just as much of a basket case. MacDonald, Gardiner, Abbott all infer staying in the single market is a betrayal of the Brexit vote, yet Starmer their Brexit guy wants to stay in it. Referenda and a free vote mean that no Government of any colour could present a unified front.

I still think we are looking at this through one lens only though. As negotiations progress (or rather don't progress) the anxiety will grow in big players like Germany and Spain. Brexit is not a one way street.


Slight clutching at straws here


Why?


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit; Government's First Proposal to the EU
PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 12:47 pm 
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Location: East Devon
Frank_Butcher wrote:
Martyn wrote:
Frank_Butcher wrote:
Ultimately we are seeing the problems of referenda - no unified party policy. The Tories problems are well known, but Labour are just as much of a basket case. MacDonald, Gardiner, Abbott all infer staying in the single market is a betrayal of the Brexit vote, yet Starmer their Brexit guy wants to stay in it. Referenda and a free vote mean that no Government of any colour could present a unified front.

I still think we are looking at this through one lens only though. As negotiations progress (or rather don't progress) the anxiety will grow in big players like Germany and Spain. Brexit is not a one way street.


Slight clutching at straws here


Why?

Because it is one of the great myths peddled by the Brexit camp that the EU will ultimately give us a good deal because it is in their interests as much as ours. It isn’t! It simply isn’t !!

I’ll paraphrase what a journalist from the German equivalent of the FT explained on Radio 4 when asked for the EU’s view of the Brexit negotiations. He basically said they are bewildered by our attitude and that we just don’t seem to understand where they’re coming from….

The number one priority for Germany & France and indeed the other 25 is to maintain the integrity and structure of the EU. That trumps all else. If that means taking some pain as a result of Brexit that that is what they will do – even if it results in no deal at all then they will take a hit but it will be an order of magnitude less than the blow to us. We represent about 16% of the EU exports in goods (less if goods and services are included) but they represent approx. 46% of our exports. Sure, we are a big trading partner to them – about the same as the US - but INTRA-EU trade is far more important to Germany, France and all the other EU nations. The UK represents more than 10% of exports for only Ireland and Cyprus (15% and 10% respectively). That’s why they are so united on this topic.

They’re not trying to punish us and genuinely would want to limit the damage to both of us – but damage there inevitably will be. We cannot have ‘frictionless’ borders without being in the Customs Union. We cannot have full access to their internal market without abiding by their rules & their laws (which we helped draft), and paying into the club. Asking for this is like “a letter to Santa”. Not to mention the basic question of fairness as they see it of us paying for our prior commitments, preserving rights of their citizens in the UK and settling the border issue of one of their members. They are not going to substantially move on those issues because doing so undermines the whole point of the EU. That is far more important to them. The other important thing the British have never ‘got’ about the EU is that to them it is more than just an economic club. They see it as a guarantor of peace and a liberal democracy. The terrible experiences of the 20th century are burned deep in the collective memory and psyche of continental Europe and the EU represents a break from that nightmare. THEY WILL NOT SACRIFICE THAT FOR BREXIT.



Last edited by Ave_IT on Fri Oct 13, 2017 2:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Brexit; Government's First Proposal to the EU
PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 2:00 pm 

Joined: Thu Oct 09, 2003 8:24 am
Location: Saltash (or Feltham)
Thanks Ave_IT - I was rather hoping that Martyn might have come back with something other than the constant one liners about xenophobia.

Anyway, I don't disagree with all of what you say, just the perspective. The position of EU Governments may well be as you state it, but large EU corporations will increase pressure on their own Governments if progress is not made and their support (or otherwise) matters. I said as much on page 2 of this thread and elsewhere so won't repeat again.


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit; Government's First Proposal to the EU
PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:50 pm 

Joined: Sat Sep 25, 2010 9:56 am
My point is , if people voted on ALL, the facts, and not on one issue only, which the majority made their decision on, we would not be in this wholly mess.

And before you say, how can I say, that,
the majority voted this way, is that after the vote, I asked numerous people (getting on for 100 people at work and friends), and about 90% said quite forcibly, that they voted to get the immigrants out, and was proud of it.

I live in London, an area, which voted to remain.


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit; Government's First Proposal to the EU
PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 5:39 pm 
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Martyn wrote:
My point is , if people voted on ALL, the facts, and not on one issue only, which the majority made their decision on, we would not be in this wholly mess.

And before you say, how can I say, that,
the majority voted this way, is that after the vote, I asked numerous people (getting on for 100 people at work and friends), and about 90% said quite forcibly, that they voted to get the immigrants out, and was proud of it.

I live in London, an area, which voted to remain.


Wow, 100 out of 17,410,742 leavers. Must have been the reason, then :sigh:


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit; Government's First Proposal to the EU
PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 6:36 pm 

Joined: Sat Sep 25, 2010 9:56 am
Greenrod wrote:
Martyn wrote:
My point is , if people voted on ALL, the facts, and not on one issue only, which the majority made their decision on, we would not be in this wholly mess.

And before you say, how can I say, that,
the majority voted this way, is that after the vote, I asked numerous people (getting on for 100 people at work and friends), and about 90% said quite forcibly, that they voted to get the immigrants out, and was proud of it.

I live in London, an area, which voted to remain.


Wow, 100 out of 17,410,742 leavers. Must have been the reason, then :sigh:


It was a random ask, but times that against the people , and you should get my point.


But seeing it's you, you probably don't


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit; Government's First Proposal to the EU
PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:44 pm 
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Martyn wrote:
Greenrod wrote:
Martyn wrote:
My point is , if people voted on ALL, the facts, and not on one issue only, which the majority made their decision on, we would not be in this wholly mess.

And before you say, how can I say, that,
the majority voted this way, is that after the vote, I asked numerous people (getting on for 100 people at work and friends), and about 90% said quite forcibly, that they voted to get the immigrants out, and was proud of it.

I live in London, an area, which voted to remain.


Wow, 100 out of 17,410,742 leavers. Must have been the reason, then :sigh:


It was a random ask, but times that against the people , and you should get my point.


But seeing it's you, you probably don't


So 90% of your work colleagues and friends are racist and ‘the uneducated’. You have referred, in previous posts in ‘Opinions’, that those that voted leave are racist and the uneducated.


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