Foundation Draw'Elimination of Finalists'

narrowboat · Jan 25, 2015

Like many others on here I am and have been a 'Foundation' member since it started as it brings in funds to Argyle Youth development as well as giving me a chance to win something. However what I really do not like is the silly and unnecessary "Elimination" style draw for those who get to the final draw a la yesterday.

Surely it is a basic tenant that every ticket must have an equal chance of winning.

After all if you had a ticket for the "lotto" and your number came out first and were then told prizes were in reverse order and you have just won £10 instead of £10,000,000 you would be highly peed off.
Likewise, how would you feel if when you bought your 50/50 match day ticket you were drawn first and got the 4th prize brolly instead of say 1st prize of £800(actually they did do this once and there was such an uproar that it got changed back).

So the10 finalists(and yes I was one once)should have a 1 in 10 chance of winning the one and only main prize. Instead it is the reverse and they are eliminated for being drawn out first and therefore cannot win. IMO absolutely not correct or fair.

Why can't the winning number/ball be drawn first and put to one side whilst the rest of the show takes place. In this way all the finalists will know that they have had an equal chance of winning and the rest of the show can carry on just the same.

I would like to know how the rest of you feel.

GreenMatt · Jan 25, 2015

The lottery and the 50/50 are different though in that there are more than 1 winner, unlike the foundation draw which has just 1. Unless of course when they did the 50/50 in reverse they drew every single ticket until just 3 or 4 were left and then awarded the prizes.

The Doctor · Jan 25, 2015

Every one of the 10 people left in the final elimination competition had the same chance of winning the big prize, i.e 1 in 10. The fact that some were eliminated from the competition before others doesn't change the overall odds surely.

Knarf Reprah · Jan 25, 2015

narrowboat":b3eo6yt3 said:
Like many others on here I am and have been a 'Foundation' member since it started as it brings in funds to Argyle Youth development as well as giving me a chance to win something. However what I really do not like is the silly and unnecessary "Elimination" style draw for those who get to the final draw a la yesterday.

Surely it is a basic tenant that every ticket must have an equal chance of winning.

After all if you had a ticket for the "lotto" and your number came out first and were then told prizes were in reverse order and you have just won £10 instead of £10,000,000 you would be highly peed off.
Likewise, how would you feel if when you bought your 50/50 match day ticket you were drawn first and got the 4th prize brolly instead of say 1st prize of £800(actually they did do this once and there was such an uproar that it got changed back).

So the10 finalists(and yes I was one once)should have a 1 in 10 chance of winning the one and only main prize. Instead it is the reverse and they are eliminated for being drawn out first and therefore cannot win. IMO absolutely not correct or fair.

Why can't the winning number/ball be drawn first and put to one side whilst the rest of the show takes place. In this way all the finalists will know that they have had an equal chance of winning and the rest of the show can carry on just the same.

I would like to know how the rest of you feel.

eh? What on earth are you talking about? However it is done there are ten finalists so a 1:10 chance......Doh

Keepitgreen · Jan 25, 2015

The Doctor":13ogbp8y said:
Every one of the 10 people left in the final elimination competition had the same chance of winning the big prize, i.e 1 in 10. The fact that some were eliminated from the competition before others doesn't change the overall odds surely.

This. It's just a case of last man standing. At the end of the day I'm sure it's done like that just to give it a bit of suspense and publicity, which, as a fellow Foundation member I've got no problem with. Having been in it since the start I wouldn't mind being one of the ten and being in with a shout of the big one. One day.

Lundan Cabbie · Jan 25, 2015

Back in the eighties my father was a manager of Bingo Hall in London and devised a promotion that included a draw/lottery. There were many prizes from a car right down to kettles and toasters. Each night a winner was drawn but they had to be in the hall to claim. They then went on stage and selected a box (for those old enough to remember) "Take Your Pick" style to discover which prize they were taking home.

After three days the head office legal team advised to withdraw the competition because it involved a "double lottery" which was illegal. Laws may have changed since those days but thirty years ago, what was done on Saturday would not have been allowed.

TinTin · Jan 26, 2015

I think I understand what Narrowboat is saying.

IF you are drawn first, in normal circumstances [i.e. a raffle] you are a winner ?

In the Foundation draw, you are a loser if you are drawn first and second and so on.

The remaining ticket holders ? - inevitably, their chances improve from 10-1 to 5-1, 4-1 and so on as others are "eliminated".

The last man standing is the winner - is the last drawn ticket the best way ?

Or should it be the first drawn ?

That is the way the Foundation does it - maybe Carl will tell you why it was decided that way ?

Hey, but I am speaking from a distance - logic does not tend to travel well on Pasoti

Keep the Faith :scarf:

narrowboat · Jan 26, 2015

The Doctor":l63me7vo said:
Every one of the 10 people left in the final elimination competition had the same chance of winning the big prize, i.e 1 in 10. The fact that some were eliminated from the competition before others doesn't change the overall odds surely.

Absolutely does.Goes from 10:1 then 9:1, 8:1,7:1,6:1, 5:1,4:1,3:1 and 2:1 but that is for the winner.

Just remember you are being drawn to lose not win. How can that be fair

Lundan Cabbie · Jan 26, 2015

As long as at no point it is suggested that ALL Foundation members will be entered into a £12,000 draw then there is no problem. From what I can see on the club's website it says that members can win "a chance" to win the top prize and that is exactly what the first draw offers. A chance to be in that final bag.

The Doctor · Jan 26, 2015

narrowboat":2gtsminj said:
The Doctor":2gtsminj said:

Every one of the 10 people left in the final elimination competition had the same chance of winning the big prize, i.e 1 in 10. The fact that some were eliminated from the competition before others doesn't change the overall odds surely.

Click to expand...

Absolutely does.Goes from 10:1 then 9:1, 8:1,7:1,6:1, 5:1,4:1,3:1 and 2:1 but that is for the winner.

Just remember you are being drawn to lose not win. How can that be fair

At 3.45pm on Saturday afternoon each one of the ten people standing around the centre-circle at Home Park had a 1 in 10 chance of winning the prize. The fancy method of progressively eliminating people didn't change this fact.

GreenSam · Jan 26, 2015

The Doctor":7ek1ysfy said:
narrowboat":7ek1ysfy said:

The Doctor":7ek1ysfy said:

Every one of the 10 people left in the final elimination competition had the same chance of winning the big prize, i.e 1 in 10. The fact that some were eliminated from the competition before others doesn't change the overall odds surely.

Click to expand...

Absolutely does.Goes from 10:1 then 9:1, 8:1,7:1,6:1, 5:1,4:1,3:1 and 2:1 but that is for the winner.

Just remember you are being drawn to lose not win. How can that be fair

Click to expand...

At 3.45pm on Saturday afternoon each one of the ten people standing around the centre-circle at Home Park had a 1 in 10 chance of winning the prize. The fancy method of progressively eliminating people didn't change this fact.

This. Fuss over nothing imho.

Ceebs · Jan 26, 2015

It makes no difference to the probability of winning. you have a 9/10 chance of progressing to round two, 8/9 of progressing to round three 7/8 to round 4, 6/7 to round 5 etc etc. The product of all of those probabilities is as you’d expect 0.1. So at the start of the game everyone has a 1/10 chance of winning.

You have to have been in the prior rounds to feature in the latter, you can't join once it has started. The last 2 have a 1/2 chance of winning, but they only had a 2/10 of getting to that stage. 2/10 * 1/2 = 2/20 or 1/10 or 10%.

IJN · Jan 26, 2015

They're not getting their £10,000 back!!

The Doctor · Jan 26, 2015

Ceebs":6mklltwj said:
It makes no difference to the probability of winning. you have a 9/10 chance of progressing to round two, 8/9 of progressing to round three 7/8 to round 4, 6/7 to round 5 etc etc. The product of all of those probabilities is as you’d expect 0.1. So at the start of the game everyone has a 1/10 chance of winning.

You have to have been in the prior rounds to feature in the latter, you can't join once it has started. The last 2 have a 1/2 chance of winning, but they only had a 2/10 of getting to that stage. 2/10 * 1/2 = 2/20 or 1/10 or 10%.

Beautiful.

EyeOpener · Jan 27, 2015

The only observation I have on the way the draw was made is that there were 10 footballs placed in a normal ball bag. The balls placed in first are going to have a much better chance of winning simply because even with the best will in the world the person drawing the balls out isn't going to really be able to move them around a la FA cup draw. Should have had little numbered balls in the 50/50 barrel.

Foundation Draw'Elimination of Finalists'

narrowboat

GreenMatt

The Doctor

Knarf Reprah

Keepitgreen

Lundan Cabbie

TinTin

narrowboat

Lundan Cabbie

The Doctor

GreenSam

Ceebs

Guest

IJN

Site Owner

The Doctor

EyeOpener