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Next Tory Leader

Posted: 16:19 05 Oct 2017
by Frazer Lloyd-Davies
Poor Theresa May.

She didn't have the best of days yesterday and I think it's clear that whether you're Blue or Red, Right or Left, Leave or Remain, it's now a matter of when and not if for our Prime Minister.

But with that being said, who will follow her? There are a few immediate candidates it would seem...

Boris Johnson - Probably the most likely but only George Osborne would appear to be a bigger snake in the grass. Probably the most popular Tory with the general public for some time.

Jacob Rees-Mogg - Another popular choice if murmurs are anything to go by but his archaic views on abortion will probably prove too difficult to shake.

Ruth Davidson - Over turned Labour as the second largest party in Scotland and has been touted previously.

Amber Rudd - Dropped in the mire by May during the candidate debates after her father passed away but struggled (understabdably) to make a positive impression.

Michael Gove - We are told of how competent this man is but teachers would disagree immensely. Not a loveable buffoon like BoJo, just a buffoon.

George Osborne - Currently the editor of the Standard so an outside chance at absolute best. However he was widely recognised as David Cameron's successor before that pipe dream imploded. Probably the only man in Britain that wants the job more than Boris.

Jeremy Hunt - I'm not sure this man knows how to run a bath, but we allow him to run our healthcare system. Constantly taken out of the firing line each time he makes a mistake. Almost certainly no chance, but I couldn't avoid having a pop.

Any others? Hammond? Davis? Green? Leadsome? Patel?

Re: Next Tory Leader

Posted: 17:26 05 Oct 2017
by Pogleswoody
Bob Fleming from The Fast Show? :think:

Re: Next Tory Leader

Posted: 17:53 05 Oct 2017
by Frank_Butcher
Premature I think - I would be most surprised if anyone challenged until Brexit negotiations are complete. And judging by a lot of commentary today, there is much public sympathy about the cough etc. - points being made that it showed her human side and she was at least stoic. Worth considering that despite what social media might be telling you, not one of those unfortunate incidents were her fault.

As for your commentary..

Jeremy Hunt does not run the healthcare system - a popular misunderstanding. NHS England, NHS Wales, NHS Scotland and HSCNI do.

Whilst appearing out of touch with society, Gove is certainly not a buffoon.

I thought Amber Rudd did exceptionally well under very difficult circumstances.

And just how do you propose George Osborne becomes Prime Minister?

Re: Next Tory Leader

Posted: 19:12 05 Oct 2017
by Greenrod
I can't see Theresa May going willingly - she will have to be pushed.

Not mentioned by previous posters, I would favour Liam Fox - Secretary of State for International Trade.

He is a staunch Brexiteer and has held some important positions, in his time, as a Conservative MP. He has also been in contention for Prime Minister, in the past.

Re: Next Tory Leader

Posted: 19:36 05 Oct 2017
by Green_Matt
Unlikely to be an actual conservative.

Re: Next Tory Leader

Posted: 19:41 05 Oct 2017
by Frazer Lloyd-Davies
I think May ran out of public sympathy a long time ago, Frank. Whilst I wholeheartedly admit that David Cameron dropped her in this mess, she has done little to appease the public since, least of all the young, the sick or those of foreign heritage. She has struggled as Prime Minister, called an ill advised General Election and Britain are floundering in Brexit negotiations. I could go on. Shall we talk about Trump, junior doctors, tuition fees, housing or the big elephant in the room, Saudi Arabia? Let's not forget that this week the US and Saudi Arabia voted against condemning the death penalty as a means of punishment for homosexual sex and they could soon be our closest allies!

If this isn't a Prime Minister struggling, I don't know what is and when your party's 'Fit to Work' policy has literally resulted in the death of your citizens, I struggle to find much sympathy for the common cold.

Re: Next Tory Leader

Posted: 20:01 05 Oct 2017
by Frank_Butcher
Your post clearly referred to her speech as the tipping point - I disagree. Quite happy to debate the rest, in fact I'd look forward to it. But that isn't the point you were making.

And BTW, how does George get to be PM?

Re: Next Tory Leader

Posted: 21:06 05 Oct 2017
by Martyn
After all that dodgy lot (above), for future Tory PM, then the sooner Labour get in the better, and hopefully get out of this Brexit mess

Re: Next Tory Leader

Posted: 21:11 05 Oct 2017
by Frank_Butcher
Sorry ? Jezza stop Brexit ? Think again.

Re: Next Tory Leader

Posted: 21:39 05 Oct 2017
by Greenrod
Frazer Lloyd-Davies wrote: I think May ran out of public sympathy a long time ago, Frank. Whilst I wholeheartedly admit that David Cameron dropped her in this mess, she has done little to appease the public since, least of all the young, the sick or those of foreign heritage. She has struggled as Prime Minister, called an ill advised General Election and Britain are floundering in Brexit negotiations. I could go on. Shall we talk about Trump, junior doctors, tuition fees, housing or the big elephant in the room, Saudi Arabia? Let's not forget that this week the US and Saudi Arabia voted against condemning the death penalty as a means of punishment for homosexual sex and they could soon be our closest allies!

If this isn't a Prime Minister struggling, I don't know what is and when your party's 'Fit to Work' policy has literally resulted in the death of your citizens, I struggle to find much sympathy for the common cold.


Forgive me, but I think you are band standing on subjects nothing to do with your post subject.

In any case - on the subject of the death penalty vote at the UN, Heather Nauert, State Department spokesperson stated "The headlines, reporting and press releases on this issue are misleading. As our representative to the Human Rights Council in Geneva said on Friday, the United States is disappointed to have to vote against this resolution. We had hoped for a balanced and inclusive resolution that would better reflect the positions of states that continue to apply the death penalty lawfully, as the United States does.
"The United States voted against this resolution because of broader concerns with the resolution’s approach in condemning the death penalty in all circumstances and calling for its abolition.
"The United States unequivocally condemns the application of the death penalty for conduct such as homosexuality, blasphemy, adultery and apostasy. We do not consider such conduct appropriate for criminalisation and certainly not crimes for which the death penalty would be lawfully available as a matter of international law."

Re: Next Tory Leader

Posted: 22:24 05 Oct 2017
by Ave_IT
Frank_Butcher wrote: Premature I think - I would be most surprised if anyone challenged until Brexit negotiations are complete. And judging by a lot of commentary today, there is much public sympathy about the cough etc. - points being made that it showed her human side and she was at least stoic. Worth considering that despite what social media might be telling you, not one of those unfortunate incidents were her fault.

As for your commentary..

Jeremy Hunt does not run the healthcare system - a popular misunderstanding. NHS England, NHS Wales, NHS Scotland and HSCNI do.

Whilst appearing out of touch with society, Gove is certainly not a buffoon.

I thought Amber Rudd did exceptionally well under very difficult circumstances.

And just how do you propose George Osborne becomes Prime Minister?

It wasn't just the cough though Frank...... it was such a dull, uninspired, lacklustre, depressed conference - a complete contrast to Labour's which was positively bouncing with energy & optimism. So the cough, the prankster and even the frigging letters falling off behind her looked just.....cringeworthy ....... and quite in keeping with the whole dire event. I'm sure most of us felt sorry for her on a human level - but her already severely limited authority just dissipated even further. It wasn't her fault but it was toe-curlingly awful.

Jeremy Hunt doesn't run the NHS - just like Derek Adams doesn't play football for Argyle. But in the long run it is largely, if not wholly, down to him how it performs. Badly.

Boris will never get the job - surely? He really is not liked by many in the party and outside it. A buffoon always one quote from a gaffe.... about 10 minutes after his speech 'joking' about clearing up dead bodies in Libya.

Gove will never be forgiven for knifing Boris - and not popular either.

Amber Rudd? Possible but a bit like Theresa MKII. Uninspiring.

Liam Fox - no chance. Very socially conservative on things like abortion & gay marriage. Also has baggage - he was one of the worst offenders in the expenses scandal and resigned at one point when a 'close friend' had apparently been given access to MOD information, meetings etc.....entirely unauthorised.

Hammond? Not liked by many - was about to be sacked by May until she noused up the election. A Remainer who clearly sees Brexit as an exercise in damage limitation (quite rightly) so won't be accepted by the party.

Jacob Rees Mogg? :lol: :funny: ....Pur-lease!!

David Davis is the only one I can imagine them going for unless someone emerges from the shadows. A mixture of right wing but socially liberal (relative) views and a Brexiteer in the thick of negotiations. Experienced and a polished debater but IMO fits the quote "there's less to him than meets the eye". Can't see him getting back the young vote.

Re: Next Tory Leader

Posted: 22:54 05 Oct 2017
by Frank_Butcher
Ave_IT, generally speaking I agree with your assessment (I won't be picky in the interests of brevity ;) ). Indeed, they along with Brexit are the reasons why I don't think there will be a challenge any time soon.

However, I'm sorry but Hunt - or any Health Secretary does not run the NHS. Government (of any persuasion) is responsible for policy, while the bodies I cited earlier are responsible for strategy, delivery and performance in their respective countries (in the Public Sector) - and to which the Government holds them to account. That may lead to the downfall of a SoS through say under funding or under performance, but this is a perfect example of the difference between responsibility and accountability.

Re: Next Tory Leader

Posted: 06:40 06 Oct 2017
by Frazer Lloyd-Davies
Frank_Butcher wrote: And BTW, how does George get to be PM?


Without a lot of questionable behaviour, I don't think he does - yet.

However, I think it all depends on the gamesmanship doesn't it? I think it's safe to assume May isn't going to call another General Election, nor is she going to step down. If she goes, she'll be pushed, whether that's masked as a resignation or not.

The timing is crucial though. As I think you alluded to (it may have been another poster) who would want the poisoned chalice of Brexit? May is on a sinking ship. It would be foolish to push her off and jump on yourself if you had real ambitions of leadership. She could flail around for a year or so yet.

Osborne was incredibly well thought of amongst his peers, until the end. His closeness to Cameron was always going to be his biggest opportunity but also his biggest weakness. Nonetheless, by walking away from the fire (and stoking the flames somewhat) he has removed himself from the firing line. People are no longer talking about the Chancellor and his dodgy grin, but Johnson and the rest.

I may be wrong, but I think Osborne wants that leadership and is playing the long game. Given he's on the outside right now, I doubt he will be next. It would take a lot, as you have alluded to!

However, a former front bencher that was highly thought of and isn't taking a barrage of criticism right now, might be the best option when the right time comes around. He is helping to bury May, and erase the memories of his time together with Cameron. When the time is right, probably a leader or two away, he will be back.

Interestingly, this is the headline story on the Beeb right now;

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41519601

For all the nonsense and media bias stacked against Corbyn, May is lucky she doesn't have a beard and own an allotment!