Assuming Boris is the next PM and assuming he sticks by his promise to try to force a Brexit Deal-or-No-Deal thru’ in October which will probably get blocked…….. there seems little option than to call a General Election. So what will happen? There’s a lot of assumptions there admittedly. Maybe we can keep it relatively uncontroversial and just do a bit of crystal ball gazing at what is a truly amazing time in our politics?
The latest YouGov opinion poll is amazing – and there have been a few similar now so it can’t be dismissed as rogue. It puts Tories 24%, Brexit 23%, Lib Dem 20%, Lab 18% and Green 9%. That’s just …..amazing isn’t it?
Clearly Brexit has smashed the two party system ….or has it?
Will there be a ‘Boris bounce’ for the Tories that will drag support back from the Brexit party? Will Corbyn finally be pushed into throwing his weight fully behind a second referendum and campaign for Remain to pull support from the Lib Dems & Greens ? Even if they do will it work for them or will it back fire? After all, many of the traditionally safe Tory seats in London & the South especially are the most ferociously anti-Brexit and Boris inspires as much loathing as support – especially amongst the young and urban professional classes. Similarly Corbyn risks alienating the old dyed-in-the-wool bedrock Labour support who still appear to want Brexit as much as ever and will feel betrayed if Corbyn goes full on Remain. Then what about Scotland?
Then there’s the biggest question mark of all – how does such a four or five party system translate into seats given our antiquated first-past-the-post system? I heard a pollster just a couple of weeks ago saying it makes it hideously complicated to analyse how that would work out – tiny local shifts could dramatically change the result.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/ar ... -4th-place