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General Election 2019 ??

Posted: 11:29 09 Jul 2019
by Ave_IT
Assuming Boris is the next PM and assuming he sticks by his promise to try to force a Brexit Deal-or-No-Deal thru’ in October which will probably get blocked…….. there seems little option than to call a General Election. So what will happen? There’s a lot of assumptions there admittedly. Maybe we can keep it relatively uncontroversial and just do a bit of crystal ball gazing at what is a truly amazing time in our politics?

The latest YouGov opinion poll is amazing – and there have been a few similar now so it can’t be dismissed as rogue. It puts Tories 24%, Brexit 23%, Lib Dem 20%, Lab 18% and Green 9%. That’s just …..amazing isn’t it?

Clearly Brexit has smashed the two party system ….or has it?

Will there be a ‘Boris bounce’ for the Tories that will drag support back from the Brexit party? Will Corbyn finally be pushed into throwing his weight fully behind a second referendum and campaign for Remain to pull support from the Lib Dems & Greens ? Even if they do will it work for them or will it back fire? After all, many of the traditionally safe Tory seats in London & the South especially are the most ferociously anti-Brexit and Boris inspires as much loathing as support – especially amongst the young and urban professional classes. Similarly Corbyn risks alienating the old dyed-in-the-wool bedrock Labour support who still appear to want Brexit as much as ever and will feel betrayed if Corbyn goes full on Remain. Then what about Scotland?

Then there’s the biggest question mark of all – how does such a four or five party system translate into seats given our antiquated first-past-the-post system? I heard a pollster just a couple of weeks ago saying it makes it hideously complicated to analyse how that would work out – tiny local shifts could dramatically change the result.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/ar ... -4th-place

Re: General Election 2019 ??

Posted: 12:19 09 Jul 2019
by Frank_Butcher
I think what's amazing is the abandonment of the centre ground when everybody with a modicum of political nous knows that's where the power base is - as demonstrated by the success of New Labour. We have a polarising force in Boris Johnson and the most far left leadership of the Opposition in living memory. Brexit has undoubtedly disrupted our politics but the first to wake up to the ignored centre ground will be triumphant.

Re: the YouGov poll, what is interesting is that Tory + Brexit = 47% and Lib + Lab + Grn = 47%.

Skewed by Brexit of course, but interesting nonetheless if seen as broadly right vs left.

Re: General Election 2019 ??

Posted: 14:17 09 Jul 2019
by MickyD

Re: General Election 2019 ??

Posted: 04:00 10 Jul 2019
by Mike E
I think what is clear is that no matter what he does now Corbyn will lose a general election. He has demonstrated that he is no real leader. Backing Remain now is too little too late, and will only regain a few votes from the Lib Dems, weakening their chances of winning in Tory marginals. Resulting in a Tory-Brexit coalition.

As Frank points out the centre ground is there for the taking and has been for a long while. The anyone but Boris or anyone but Corbyn effect should, in an ideal world, be stearing the electorate towards the Lib Dems and Greens, but as Ave it points out our antiquated electoral system will probably result in further disilusionment among the people.

For the sake of unity and salvation of our country we desparately need Preportional Representation and a coalition of cross party government, that will at least give everyone the feeling that their views are taken into consideration, instead of the polarisation we are currently witnessing.

But I can't see that happening any time soon.

I fear that if we had a genearl election in the current climate, this new found admiration of Trump, Farage and Johnson would lead us to disaster.

Re: General Election 2019 ??

Posted: 10:45 10 Jul 2019
by pilgrimage
I believe we would have another hung parliament. With what coalition combination is anybody's guess.

Re: General Election 2019 ??

Posted: 10:59 10 Jul 2019
by signalspast
For the remain side of the arguement it's not so simple for Labour to change stance to remain. As it was pointed out on sky politics this morning sixty per cent of the seats that labour currently hold are in constituencies that voted leave. The one thing that has happened over the last two years is that the electorates opinion has hardened to either side and for la our to abandon the leave arguement they would run the risk if halving their seats in parliament

Re: General Election 2019 ??

Posted: 11:20 11 Jul 2019
by Ave_IT
signalspast wrote: For the remain side of the arguement it's not so simple for Labour to change stance to remain. As it was pointed out on sky politics this morning sixty per cent of the seats that labour currently hold are in constituencies that voted leave. The one thing that has happened over the last two years is that the electorates opinion has hardened to either side and for la our to abandon the leave arguement they would run the risk if halving their seats in parliament

No I don’t think so. A very comprehensive YouGov model based on a survey of 50,000 people came to the conclusion that over 100 seats that voted Leave have now switched to Remain – most in Labour held areas. Admittedly this survey was in August 2018 – but if anything I’d say it would be more so now. This is what has been dragging Corbyn kicking and screaming to support a second referendum. When he says he’s been “listening” – he means he’s been listening to his own pollsters and he saw the Labour vote decimated at the Euro elections as the Lib Dems and Greens took a huge chunk of Labour former votes with their unequivocal anti-Brexit stance.

I agree it’s not without some consequence to Labour but also to the Tories depending on their stance because Brexit cuts across party lines. So yes, there will be Labour seats that will be lost if they move to a more Remain stance – just as the Tories will certainly lose seats if they go ahead with Brexit – the harder the Brexit the more they’ll lose. But the Tories face a big threat from Farage’s party if it’s not a hard enough Brexit - so they could be stuffed from both ends (if you’ll pardon the expression).

Which is why there is some self-interested logic for Tories in choosing Boris. I can see a scenario where ‘Mister Brexit’ himself does stop Farage taking many Tory seats and doesn’t lose too many more to the Lib Dems or Labour due to a split Remain vote – but Corbyn comes unstuck to the Brexit party in many other areas and loses a lot of that young vote he got last time. I hate to say it but my money at the moment would be on a slim Tory overall majority even if they had less actual votes – mostly because of the weird electoral carve-up.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -to-remain

Re: General Election 2019 ??

Posted: 11:38 11 Jul 2019
by PL2 3DQ
Why do the media refer to Boris Johnson as 'Boris' but call other politicians by their surname?
It's happening on this thread as well. :)

Re: General Election 2019 ??

Posted: 15:39 11 Jul 2019
by signalspast
Ave_IT wrote:
signalspast wrote: For the remain side of the arguement it's not so simple for Labour to change stance to remain. As it was pointed out on sky politics this morning sixty per cent of the seats that labour currently hold are in constituencies that voted leave. The one thing that has happened over the last two years is that the electorates opinion has hardened to either side and for la our to abandon the leave arguement they would run the risk if halving their seats in parliament

No I don’t think so. A very comprehensive YouGov model based on a survey of 50,000 people came to the conclusion that over 100 seats that voted Leave have now switched to Remain – most in Labour held areas. Admittedly this survey was in August 2018 – but if anything I’d say it would be more so now. This is what has been dragging Corbyn kicking and screaming to support a second referendum. When he says he’s been “listening” – he means he’s been listening to his own pollsters and he saw the Labour vote decimated at the Euro elections as the Lib Dems and Greens took a huge chunk of Labour former votes with their unequivocal anti-Brexit stance.

I agree it’s not without some consequence to Labour but also to the Tories depending on their stance because Brexit cuts across party lines. So yes, there will be Labour seats that will be lost if they move to a more Remain stance – just as the Tories will certainly lose seats if they go ahead with Brexit – the harder the Brexit the more they’ll lose. But the Tories face a big threat from Farage’s party if it’s not a hard enough Brexit - so they could be stuffed from both ends (if you’ll pardon the expression).

Which is why there is some self-interested logic for Tories in choosing Boris. I can see a scenario where ‘Mister Brexit’ himself does stop Farage taking many Tory seats and doesn’t lose too many more to the Lib Dems or Labour due to a split Remain vote – but Corbyn comes unstuck to the Brexit party in many other areas and loses a lot of that young vote he got last time. I hate to say it but my money at the moment would be on a slim Tory overall majority even if they had less actual votes – mostly because of the weird electoral carve-up.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -to-remain



whilst it is hard to work out definitive numbers due to different voting systems it is considered labour has 148 seats in leave areas to 84 in remain.

https://fullfact.org/online/referendum- ... stituency/

Now the latest elections for Europe showed that Labour in leave voting areas only polled 10 per cent of votes cast, whereas the Brexit party polled up to 70 per cent in leave voting areas.
If we have not left prior to the next election there is no reason to show why these results wont be replicated especially if Labour decide to back remain. It could be argued that the results would be worse for them as the votes were down in leave areas whereas remain areas they were up for european elections. Going on the above points I can see where the person was coming from in saying that it is possible that Labour could lose 100 seats if they decide to back remain.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co ... s-48403131

The one thing that wont happen is the Brexit party taking 420 seats as predicted they could if the results followed the european elections. this is 25 seats more than both labour and tory hold in leave areas

Re: General Election 2019 ??

Posted: 22:42 11 Jul 2019
by Ave_IT
But sp ........ Labour got hammered in the Euro elections because in trying to be all things to all men they meant nothing to anybody. The Leavers went Brexit and angry Remainers (like me) went Lib Dem or Green. The Brexit party or a hardline Tory party will take nearly all their Leave voters anyway in the next election.

The fact is that MOST Labour voters did support Remain - although they were concentrated in certain urban areas....but as the YouGov survey shows a significant number have since moved and now most Labour constituencies would be Remain. If Corbyn continues to be 'Yeah-But-No-But' about a second referendum they'll get a similar beating in the General election as in the Euros. My fear is they'll shift just far enough to split the Remain vote (which all evidence shows is now the majority) with a patched up hard Brexit Tory party led by that dopey, deluded, lying clown squeaking in. God help us!

Re: General Election 2019 ??

Posted: 12:02 13 Jul 2019
by Ade the green
PL2 3DQ wrote: Why do the media refer to Boris Johnson as 'Boris' but call other politicians by their surname?
It's happening on this thread as well. :)



I think in the instance of the Tory leadership battle it does rather favour him though. I’m sure he’s quite pleased to be called Boris, after all Hunt is a bit too close to what he to be a benefit for Jeremy.

Re: General Election 2019 ??

Posted: 16:07 13 Jul 2019
by Green_Matt
Whatever the Tories are doing it seems to be working because people are still using terms like 'hard' Brexit and think that they are right wing. All the evidence points to their being left of centre, Blairite and mostly in favour of remaining in the EU. Globalists to the end who only care about winning elections without any real care about how they do it and little to nothing in the way of principles.

What is truly amazing is that three years on there is still only one party performing in the polls that is unequivocally in favour of delivering on the referendum result. Most of the country is being let down badly and will probably boot out the current mob at the first opportunity. The question is will the Brexit Party (who I personally am unsure about) manage to get over the line or will we end up with Commie Corbyn, either in charge or in some ghastly leftist coalition?

Re: General Election 2019 ??

Posted: 11:25 14 Jul 2019
by Frank_Butcher
Odds on some sort of coalition at the moment. But GEs tend to focus the mind - short term, i.e. this year, or if revocation happens, would see the Brexit Party do incredibly well I suspect. Longer term and with Brexit decided it will likely come back to the economy followed by health, education, defence etc.

The only way I see a GE this year is if the Tories turn on themselves with their Remain contingent either stopping no deal or if relevant, prorogation. It would be a surprise to me if either of those things happened but it’s so difficult to predict. And if the EU remain intransigent, who knows ?