signalspast wrote:mervyn wrote: Thank you signalspost, and some really good points there. My argument is based on surveys by the Bank of England, ONS, DTI, CBI and IoD who all take the swings and roundabout approach but say on balance GDP will reduce between a best estimate of 4%, and a worst case of 7.5%.
To add to this (in other words not included in the above forecasts), our fishing industry, where 70% of what we catch is sold to the EU, will be hit by massif tariffs, whilst foreign boats will have increased access to our waters. Our beef and lamb exports will be hit by 20% tariffs.
Loss of freedom of movement will massively impact the Scottish economy, English agriculture, and our Universities and Science sector.
National security and intelligence effectiveness will suffer outside the EU, particularly whilst Trump derides NATO. Putin must be loving all this.
The Union will now surely disappear. Northern Ireland's integration into the south is now inevitable, which I believe is a good thing, but not the loss of Scotland, where I feel we are stronger together.
These are just the key points, but I guess the main cause of my OP is the fact that the 'get it done' attitude fails to realise that the withdrawal bill is just the start of a 7-10 year process, so if people are fed up now, how are they going to feel in 5 years time?
U will attempt to answer your points in a chronological order. The first being the surveys for instance the ons one that you referred to. The latest one from them downgraded the affects of brexit and when you came away from the headlines of the papers it stated that the downturn would last throughout 2020 but come 2021 our economy would start to recover. You can go through each them and they all say similar with different time scales within them.
The fishing industry that's a good one eighty per cent of the fish thats caught in British waters is caught and landed in europe by non British boats. Theoretically from day one the foreign boats will have no access to our waters. Again theoretically there will be a massive shortage of fish in europe. We would not be able to supply the quantity needed so our fishermen would get increased prices. Realistically ournfishing fleet is so reduced it would make sense to use the fishing trade as a barter in free trade negotiations whereby we reduce the number of boats and quantity allowed over a number of years whilst we build up our own fleet.
The beef and lamb yes it will be hit with tariffs but again a free trade agreement would solve that. In the mean time the government to purchase the slack up and use it to feed hm forces hospital meals etc etc.
Loss of freedom of movement I am old enough to remember where u could go to the post office and buy a day passport to visit france. Yes it will take a bit more planning to visit but the movement will not end. As a person this year I have been to china hong kong and philippines. In a few weeks I am off to singapore. I have friends in slovakia and poland but I do believe that we should have control of our borders with persons coming to settle here in a controlled manner. For instance the fruit pickers. Minimum wage in Philippines is 28 pounds per week if government allowed them in we would have all the farm workers we needed.
National security and our access to the data base. The information on that database 75 to 80 per cent of it was provided by british intelligence. So Europe blocks us from using it. We build our own and how quick do you think their database would be confined to the bin and they would want access to ours. I replied to this on another subject where i gave a link about the german forces as a reason why not a European army and why we shouldn't have our forces under European control but very happy to cooperate with them.
The union well in fifteen years there will be more Catholics in ireland than protestants so even without brexit there will be shouts for joining up with the south as per the good friday agreement. Scotland well I think we will thrive and they will not cut their noses off and put themselves at a disadvantage. Having said that I do think the union has got to be restructured where each country has it's own parliament and the union parliament only deals with things that effect all four
Okay you could argue I am a xmas turkey in that the short term disruption will effect me but the cliff is not an edge to fall off but the best place to see the horizon. Europe is dying and the euro will be dead within the next few years.
Classic thawed brexit thinking that we can get fruit pickers to come from the other side of the world for a few weeks.