I must say this vaccination effort has been absolutely outstanding. Everyone deserves credit from the government, to central NHS bodies, the co-ordination teams and the people on the front line - practitioners and volunteers alike. My own experience was operational excellence in action.

There is no pleasure in seeing escalating death rates across mainland Europe, but it's fair to say that if the situation was reversed, this messageboard would be aflame (with all criticism aimed at the government of course ). So on this occasion, acknowledging that mistakes have been made at great cost in the past, it's worth saying that this episode in the journey has been a resounding success.

When we really need to this country is capable of great things. The Olympics is another example. Just a pity we can't reach those standards in normal times.

We really should now focus on getting the vaccine roll out to other parts of the world rather than our healthy under 50s. Both for altruistic reasons and
because the virus will otherwise rage on and no doubt hit us again.

That’s utter garbage. With the vulnerable fully vaccinated in a few weeks time it would mean those countries having tens of thousands of deaths more than the U.K. in the next month and even now daily numbers are similar.
I’ll make a note to come back in a month and we’ll see who can count.
pS if you’re not including Germany in your 4 out of 5 then you’re including France who currently have 35,000 less deaths than the U.K. and deaths per million of 1,374 to U.K. 1,839. Today france had 84 more deaths. More cases but if 90% of vulnerable people are vaccinated in a months time deaths should be v law.
We’ll see, but you’re going to need a pretty bleddy big ballpark Frank.

You must have accidentally deleted your note , so let's take stock.

Firstly, there was this:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56456312

So the UK's excess death is no longer the worst in Europe. So having downgrade your statements from 'worst in the world' to 'worst in Europe', this is no longer valid either.

But we don't have data since the New Year, and hence this doesn't account for our own post-Xmas wave and the current problems being seen across Western and Central Europe in particular. So the next best measure is Deaths/m. We have:

1892 Italy (7 day average daily rate 460)
1864 UK (7 day average daily rate 36)
1632 Spain (7 day average daily rate 84)
1510 France (7 day average daily rate 296)

So Italy has shot past the UK and continues to rise alarmingly. Spain's number has closed and with a population that is two thirds that of the UK will also rise more quickly. France's numbers have closed significantly - check out the differences with the numbers in your post above, and are still to deal with the delay from a big rise in cases recently (averaging 33000 as of yesterday).

Starting to look very much like a ballpark to me.

Yes, the UK has the most deaths in Europe but this is statistically irrelevant when creating comparisons due to population size and demographic.

The aim here is not to say how wonderfully we've done (we haven't), or argue that mistakes haven't been made (they have), or to rejoice in the problems that other countries are suffering (it's appalling wherever it happens). But in that conversation of a month ago you proudly and repeatedly ridiculed my projections, so given you wanted to review after a month and unfortunately seem to have forgotten, I thought I'd oblige.

That’s utter garbage. With the vulnerable fully vaccinated in a few weeks time it would mean those countries having tens of thousands of deaths more than the U.K. in the next month and even now daily numbers are similar.
I’ll make a note to come back in a month and we’ll see who can count.
pS if you’re not including Germany in your 4 out of 5 then you’re including France who currently have 35,000 less deaths than the U.K. and deaths per million of 1,374 to U.K. 1,839. Today france had 84 more deaths. More cases but if 90% of vulnerable people are vaccinated in a months time deaths should be v law.
We’ll see, but you’re going to need a pretty bleddy big ballpark Frank.

You must have accidentally deleted your note , so let's take stock.

Firstly, there was this:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56456312

So the UK's excess death is no longer the worst in Europe. So having downgrade your statements from 'worst in the world' to 'worst in Europe', this is no longer valid either.

But we don't have data since the New Year, and hence this doesn't account for our own post-Xmas wave and the current problems being seen across Western and Central Europe in particular. So the next best measure is Deaths/m. We have:

1892 Italy (7 day average daily rate 460)
1864 UK (7 day average daily rate 36)
1632 Spain (7 day average daily rate 84)
1510 France (7 day average daily rate 296)

So Italy has shot past the UK and continues to rise alarmingly. Spain's number has closed and with a population that is two thirds that of the UK will also rise more quickly. France's numbers have closed significantly - check out the differences with the numbers in your post above, and are still to deal with the delay from a big rise in cases recently (averaging 33000 as of yesterday).

Starting to look very much like a ballpark to me.

Yes, the UK has the most deaths in Europe but this is statistically irrelevant when creating comparisons due to population size and demographic.

The aim here is not to say how wonderfully we've done (we haven't), or argue that mistakes haven't been made (they have), or to rejoice in the problems that other countries are suffering (it's appalling wherever it happens). But in that conversation of a month ago you proudly and repeatedly ridiculed my projections, so given you wanted to review after a month and unfortunately seem to have forgotten, I thought I'd oblige.

Shock, horror, hold the front page! TMKF talks out of his backside? Who would have thought that

The UK still has the highest deaths in europe by 13,000 despite having a lower population than Germany and similar to France, who have 30,000 less deaths. 2nd highest deaths per million after Italy of the 5 countries you referred to.

You said you were "quite sure 4/5 countries would be in the same ballpark", no they wont, as the vaccine rollout accelerates in Europe numbers are now falling, Italy will be near the UK no other of these countries will. I was correct in every respect though I can see you were very excited that you thought you had got just one thing right, try again lads

Lol. Predictable. And still you can't understand the pointless use of absolute numbers and the absurd conflation in your argument.

Ah well, 'none so blind ...' as the saying goes.

Perhaps pay heed to your own words on another thread 'or its a step too far to admit you were wrong' I think it was.

Pertinent.

But Franky mate I'm not going to admit I'm wrong when so far I'm right in every respect. All I did was quote figures from worldometers and oxford university. You then predicted the future that you were certain that 4/5 of Italy, Spain, UK, France and Germany would end up in the same ballpark. So far only Italy are near on any measure - all the others have much less total deaths, much lower excess deaths and much lower deaths per million. You've gone to a lot of effort and got very excited for I'm not sure what.

And the UK still has the worst economic outcome of any developed country with a 9.9% drop in GDP.

But Franky mate I'm not going to admit I'm wrong when so far I'm right in every respect. All I did was quote figures from worldometers and oxford university. You then predicted the future that you were certain that 4/5 of Italy, Spain, UK, France and Germany would end up in the same ballpark. So far only Italy are near on any measure - all the others have much less total deaths, much lower excess deaths and much lower deaths per million. You've gone to a lot of effort and got very excited for I'm not sure what.

And the UK still has the worst economic outcome of any developed country with a 9.9% drop in GDP.

OK Keithy - I've seen these very unhealthy denial symptoms somewhere else before .

Maybe we should revisit again in another month? Make sure you back up your diary this time. See you then ...

I didn't have to because I was right as I've just shown you, but by all means try again, even a stopped clock is right twice a day

Love it Keithy.

When did it become a competition?

Trauma Top Trumps anyone ?

When did it become a competition?

Trauma Top Trumps anyone ?

GG - I made it quite clear that it isn't in my mind, hence why I included this in my post this morning which you may have missed:

The aim here is not to say how wonderfully we've done (we haven't), or argue that mistakes haven't been made (they have), or to rejoice in the problems that other countries are suffering (it's appalling wherever it happens). But in that conversation of a month ago you proudly and repeatedly ridiculed my projections, so given you wanted to review after a month and unfortunately seem to have forgotten, I thought I'd oblige."

But having been ridiculed in that conversation of a month ago, I absolutely reserve the right to respond.

Interesting watching the crowd at the 18th green of the Masters. That is social distancing?
They started off spread all round the course but, as the winner approached the final green, they all piled in as they always do!

As an aside, on this thread:
BG has been grounded for a while. I do admire how others have so manfully stepped up to the plate to fill in for him!!