signalspast wrote: CambsGreen1 wrote:
signalspast wrote: Okay the first thing is indo think we will leave with no deal. Not of intent on either side but agreement has got to be by all 27 nations on there side. I consider Spain will throw the Gibralter bomb in which the uk government cannot give into because it wont only involve spain but will open a can of worms over the falklands.
Nissan well I linked the Japan times which shows the concerns of the japanese car market. The government are aware of it and it's one of the reasons an agreement will come about. There will be changes with more parts being made in uk instead of coming from the eu. Whilst Nissan say one thing they are building a new battery plant for electric cars beside the current sunderland plant.
I dont work in the industry but listen to my financial advisor and somebody I know who works for BOE in Zurich. He says things totally over my head with figures but as I said agreements switzerland USA Japan Pacific asia agreement and China will leave the EU needing London
Now as many predictions that there are saying that london will suffer there are as many that say it's the eu that will suffer. People like the ex head (name escapes me) head of the IMF before Lagarde that says london and uk will thrive. Depends what side of the fence you sit and what you wish to believe but whichever side it's just opinions.
Oh they will still have access as europe cannot stop financial trade under gats it just wont be unfettered and wont be as quick. Also that's why 1000 financial institutions from europe have already set up in london to ensure eu institutions have access to the rest of the world.
Its not opinions its what the banks and car manufacturers have said, we still don't think there will be no deal, its just too insane.
Nissan have launched their electric car production in Sunderland, its their best and most efficient plant in Europe, but as they say the business is unsustainable here if no deal, not just because of disruption of just in time with Customs checks, and 10% tariffs, (not only on the finished product but every time parts cross the channel), but crucially because of quotas which could freeze them out of the European market entirely. That's over half the sales gone overnight.
European institutions don't have to be in London to trade with the rest of the world , they choose to because London is the hub of European finance and they can access the world from here. However to trade within the single market you must have the financial passport which is only available to EU/EFTA members. So the Chinese and American banks would have to transfer from London to a European City and set up an entity there in order to access EU markets. People talk about fish and other nonsense but Mr Barnier has repeatedly warned that without an agreement covering a level playing field on goods and services the UK and London based international institutions will lose access to EU markets. Its our choice.
The first thing is you dont need the financial passport to trade with europe. It just makes it easier like switzerland and many other countries you can trade under GATS regs which is like the WTO of the financial services. As I said read the link from money week it doesnt appear to take any side but points out that 12 months ago europe were making the same noises to switzerland about European passport etc. The reality is it's made little difference to the trade between them.
You quoted what people are saying until it happens it is just a projection by them so its opinion. As I said Europe for four years have been trying to lure the trade away with little success and the fact that over 1000 european institutions are creating hubs in london tends to say they are making arrangements to overcome any problems of brexit. The hubs are not opinions its fact it's happening.
Nissan the first thing it will be up to us if we impose tariffs on parts coming across from europe so there is no definitive on it. I linked the japan times which shows both governments are aware of the automobile industry and the importance to japan.
The chinese well there link to london was opened in 2019 just at the height of brexit dogma. Do you think they would have set up in london if they had any doubts about london remaining the major centre whatever the consequences of brexit. They wouldnt of if they had any doubts they would have waited to see which way the tide went and then set up whichever country was best for them.
Now for Mr Barnier and what he says think on it he is negotiating on behalf of the EU and is bigging up his side to try and get the best deal for them. Do you really think the 90 billion difference where we buy more and trade more from them than they do us is going to stop. No it's not the trade will go on but with tariffs.
Finally I have said we will leave on no deal since the referendum see no reason for a change of heart. I have stated the Gibralter bomb but nearly every country has there own agenda and I am sure there are many that I haven't thought of. For instance Belgium it's not only the country that needs to agree but every region within that country.
My friend your references are interesting but not relevant to the points I made. Not least because the UKs relationship as a major competitor on their doorstep shapes their unique approach to our future relationship.
Specifically, Switzerland has a very good relationship with the EU, are not a threat and have agreed the level playing field. We say we won't, and as a major competitor will be excluded from selling financial products within the single market without the financial passport.
Japan are holding out on a trade deal until they see our future relationship with Europe.
It is not a projection or opinion that the CEO of Nissan says their business is unsustainable if theres no deal. Its what they know. You seem confused about tariffs, its irrelevant if we impose them, they will , and more crucially as I said if there's bad blood in no deal they will freeze out all British made cars through quota limitations. Remember nothwithstanding the trade deficit we are a tiny part of the EUs overall trade, and by freezing out eg UK cars it opens up the internal market to their car makers eg BMW can sell more cars to replace the absence of UK imports.
As regards Mr Barnier, he hasn't moved one inch in 4 years on the substantive issues of level playing fields, food standards workers rights etc and they wont. Why? Well firstly they would be mad to give a major local competitor a competitive advantage, and more crucially if you allow a non member equivalent benefits without playing by the rules then what's the point of the EU? They will never compromise on the integrity of the single market.
I'm not interested in the politics of Brexit, its done, however we must safeguard our relationship with the the biggest free trading market in the world on our doorstep or we will be hit with a 2nd economic hit pretty much equal to the upcoming one from the corona virus crisis. 8% GDP according to Government figures, and I think that's an underestimate as it doesn't allow for the knock on effect of the decimation of the car industry, farmers the city etc. If That's what people voted for thats fine but its not what they were promised.