The talk about Scottish independence has really taken off since the EU referendum, and there's more and more talk about the possibility of a border vote in N'orn Iron. As Gordon Brown said on the radio this morning (I haven't read his piece in the Telegraph yet) the regions outside the M25 have been feeling more and more distant from Westminster and Boris seems to treat these areas with a certain level of distain (the example of him not responding to letters from the Welsh Minister Mark Drakeford, for instance). And during the pandemic there's been as big a separation between the various regions in the UK as there's ever been with, at times, the English being banned for travelling into Wales and/or Scotland as each country had different lockdown rules in place.

The point Brown was making (and he's saying this from a pro-Union stance, I believe) is that Westminster can't take the Union for granted and that to maintain it's integrity, not only would there need to be a positive message campaign to neuter the nationalist movements, but also an idea to reform the House of Lords to more of a regional Senate to allow Wales, Northern Ireland, Scotland, the North, the South West, etc more of a say in Westminster.

But is it too late to preserve the Union in its current state? Although Westminster says the last Scottish Referendum was a "once in a lifetime" vote, it was held before the EU referendum, and one of the points made by Unionists in the leadup to the Scottish vote was that we weren't going to leave the EU. Scotland voted to remain in the EU in 2016, and we left. Northern Ireland is more tricky: they are in a mess post-Brexit, and there's even talk from some Unionists there that they would be better served rejoining with Ireland. The pathway for a border vote there is somewhat easier than that for one for Scottish independence (although Westminster can't prevent an "advisory" referendum in Scotland, nor ignore the results of it: there is a recent precedent of that, IIR...), but even without the Brexit card, the rise of the Catholic (and pro Eire) there as a percentage of the population meant that, eventually, there would be a majority in favour of ceding from the UK.

Personally, I have no issues if Scotland and (potentially) Northern Ireland were to leave the Union. I think the UK would be a lesser place without them, but if many Brexiters keep harping on about "being English" then they cannot in any way object if a Scottish person wanted a seperate Scotland. What I do find interesting is that those who were pro-European Union seem more inclined to support a breakup of the United Kingdom, while those who were keen on us leaving the EU talk about the sanctity of the United Kingdom (which is actually only 99 years old). And, unless the Unionists take Gordon Brown's warning to heart, if there is a referendum vote in the near future in Scotland or Northern Ireland, then Unionists are at risk of making the same mistake the Remainers made leading up to 2016 by focussing on the fears of leaving rather than the benefits of remaining.

I think the tipping point was Brexit, and from that there is no short term going back. It’s provided the perfect exit from the union for Scotland and Ulster, because in both cases they can now see a better future as part of a bigger union, the EU, with brighter prospects for their economies and quality of life of their citizens.

The demographics in both cases also help separatism, with unionists being mainly older folk dying off, and separatists a majority in both countries amongst the young. Am I also right in remembering that within ten years there will be more catholics than others in NI?

I think this perfect storm of events is aided by a government which is surely the least trusted post-war., yet both countries can only envision more of the same for the foreseeable future; their votes ain’t gonna change anything.

To add to all this there are now examples of smaller economies in Europe outpacing their bigger counterparts in terms of economic growth and expectations. In simple economic terms why wouldn’t you as a Belfast resident not see huge benefits in joining the faster growing Irish economy? The Scots can look at Denmark, Finland, Sweden and see fairer societies, smaller income gaps, and as a consequence better social outcomes. And again all this against a current backdrop of a hugely incompetent government which may well be in office for the next two terms.

Am I also right in remembering that within ten years there will be more catholics than others in NI?

My thinking was the same as yours, so I Googled it before I made my OP. Apparently, between 1997 - 2017, the percentage in Northern Ireland identifying as Protestant dropped from 56% to 42%, while Catholicism rose from 38% to 41%. So the tipping point of more Catholic to Protestant could happen in the next few years, not a decade away!

Despite their procrastinations to the contrary, I believe the Conservatives would secretly be more than happy if Scotland left the Union knowing that they would hold the reins of power in England for years to come.

The SNP has stolen more of a Labour's vote in Scotland than it has from the Tories, who were never that strong there anyway. For Labour to gain a majority in the UK they have always needed the Scottish votes.

What we have seen crudely happening in the United States, in an attempt to create a totalitarian state is being slowly crept towards by stealth and more under the radar and our very noses here in the UK.

The Conservative plans to realign the constituency boundaries will give them an extra six seats in Parliament. The already right wing populist media is about to be bolstered by, not one, but two new Fox News type news channels in the UK, while the new head of the BBC is a Tory donor who can now regulate 'properly' the 'impartiality problem' that has all of a sudden become a problem because it seems to be holding them to account.

The Tories have always believed that their superior public school educated gentry know what's best for the rest of us and believe that anyone else in power would only mess things up. Scotland and Northern Ireland are itches that if flushed away would leave them free to keep the control they have recently 'taken back' for the foreseeable future.

Despite their procrastinations to the contrary, I believe the Conservatives would secretly be more than happy if Scotland left the Union knowing that they would hold the reins of power in England for years to come.

The SNP has stolen more of a Labour's vote in Scotland than it has from the Tories, who were never that strong there anyway. For Labour to gain a majority in the UK they have always needed the Scottish votes.

What we have seen crudely happening in the United States, in an attempt to create a totalitarian state is being slowly crept towards by stealth and more under the radar and our very noses here in the UK.

The Conservative plans to realign the constituency boundaries will give them an extra six seats in Parliament. The already right wing populist media is about to be bolstered by, not one, but two new Fox News type news channels in the UK, while the new head of the BBC is a Tory donor who can now regulate 'properly' the 'impartiality problem' that has all of a sudden become a problem because it seems to be holding them to account.

The Tories have always believed that their superior public school educated gentry know what's best for the rest of us and believe that anyone else in power would only mess things up. Scotland and Northern Ireland are itches that if flushed away would leave them free to keep the control they have recently 'taken back' for the foreseeable future.

I agree with all this. Two things I can’t get my head around are currency and the border. Surely we could quite legitimately say to Scotland sorry, but you can’t use our pound. The argument being that if Scotland ran up a huge spending deficit, as Greece did within the euro, then the UK would have to support it, with potential devaluation consequences. I can recall there was even talk of Greece being thrown out of the euro until Germany came up with a rescue package.

However if Scotland were to adopt the euro, one could imagine big attractions to UK companies relocating to Scotland, and the tax revenue benefits that Scotland would then accrue. Any English company with a Scottish branch office could easily make that their Head Office, and remove at a stroke all the trading downsides of leaving the EU.

The border question surely throws up bigger issues. If most Scottish products are sold to England outside of the EU, then these become exports, with all the bureaucracy problems this produces.

Interesting times.

The talk about Scottish independence has really taken off since the EU referendum, and there's more and more talk about the possibility of a border vote in N'orn Iron. As Gordon Brown said on the radio this morning (I haven't read his piece in the Telegraph yet) the regions outside the M25 have been feeling more and more distant from Westminster and Boris seems to treat these areas with a certain level of distain (the example of him not responding to letters from the Welsh Minister Mark Drakeford, for instance). And during the pandemic there's been as big a separation between the various regions in the UK as there's ever been with, at times, the English being banned for travelling into Wales and/or Scotland as each country had different lockdown rules in place.

The point Brown was making (and he's saying this from a pro-Union stance, I believe) is that Westminster can't take the Union for granted and that to maintain it's integrity, not only would there need to be a positive message campaign to neuter the nationalist movements, but also an idea to reform the House of Lords to more of a regional Senate to allow Wales, Northern Ireland, Scotland, the North, the South West, etc more of a say in Westminster.

But is it too late to preserve the Union in its current state? Although Westminster says the last Scottish Referendum was a "once in a lifetime" vote, it was held before the EU referendum, and one of the points made by Unionists in the leadup to the Scottish vote was that we weren't going to leave the EU. Scotland voted to remain in the EU in 2016, and we left. Northern Ireland is more tricky: they are in a mess post-Brexit, and there's even talk from some Unionists there that they would be better served rejoining with Ireland. The pathway for a border vote there is somewhat easier than that for one for Scottish independence (although Westminster can't prevent an "advisory" referendum in Scotland, nor ignore the results of it: there is a recent precedent of that, IIR...), but even without the Brexit card, the rise of the Catholic (and pro Eire) there as a percentage of the population meant that, eventually, there would be a majority in favour of ceding from the UK.

Personally, I have no issues if Scotland and (potentially) Northern Ireland were to leave the Union. I think the UK would be a lesser place without them, but if many Brexiters keep harping on about "being English" then they cannot in any way object if a Scottish person wanted a seperate Scotland. What I do find interesting is that those who were pro-European Union seem more inclined to support a breakup of the United Kingdom, while those who were keen on us leaving the EU talk about the sanctity of the United Kingdom (which is actually only 99 years old). And, unless the Unionists take Gordon Brown's warning to heart, if there is a referendum vote in the near future in Scotland or Northern Ireland, then Unionists are at risk of making the same mistake the Remainers made leading up to 2016 by focussing on the fears of leaving rather than the benefits of remaining.

I'm pretty sure Brexiteers were harping on about being British which is consistent with upholding the sanctity of the United Kingdom. Having said that, I agree with you in so much as the landscape changed after the Scottish independence referendum so I personally believe Scotland should be afforded another vote. Northern Ireland is a complicated kettle of fish though. If there was a Northern Ireland independence referendum then its not unreasonable to assume that the rise in the Catholic population would lead to an independent Northern Ireland as the Catholic population would see this as a move away from Westminster/England. However, that doesn't necessarily mean they will become part of the EU or even part of Eire; that is a completely separate issue. In fact, they probably wouldn't be able to satisfy the necessary rules to join the EU so could be left in a right pickle economically. It could also have a huge impact on the Protestant community of Northern Ireland and without meaning to sound dramatic, there is the real possibility of a situation akin to what has happened around the World in places where the religion/belief of a part of the population is not recognised or accepted. Like I say, a complicated kettle of fish.

The talk about Scottish independence has really taken off since the EU referendum, and there's more and more talk about the possibility of a border vote in N'orn Iron. As Gordon Brown said on the radio this morning (I haven't read his piece in the Telegraph yet) the regions outside the M25 have been feeling more and more distant from Westminster and Boris seems to treat these areas with a certain level of distain (the example of him not responding to letters from the Welsh Minister Mark Drakeford, for instance). And during the pandemic there's been as big a separation between the various regions in the UK as there's ever been with, at times, the English being banned for travelling into Wales and/or Scotland as each country had different lockdown rules in place.

The point Brown was making (and he's saying this from a pro-Union stance, I believe) is that Westminster can't take the Union for granted and that to maintain it's integrity, not only would there need to be a positive message campaign to neuter the nationalist movements, but also an idea to reform the House of Lords to more of a regional Senate to allow Wales, Northern Ireland, Scotland, the North, the South West, etc more of a say in Westminster.

But is it too late to preserve the Union in its current state? Although Westminster says the last Scottish Referendum was a "once in a lifetime" vote, it was held before the EU referendum, and one of the points made by Unionists in the leadup to the Scottish vote was that we weren't going to leave the EU. Scotland voted to remain in the EU in 2016, and we left. Northern Ireland is more tricky: they are in a mess post-Brexit, and there's even talk from some Unionists there that they would be better served rejoining with Ireland. The pathway for a border vote there is somewhat easier than that for one for Scottish independence (although Westminster can't prevent an "advisory" referendum in Scotland, nor ignore the results of it: there is a recent precedent of that, IIR...), but even without the Brexit card, the rise of the Catholic (and pro Eire) there as a percentage of the population meant that, eventually, there would be a majority in favour of ceding from the UK.

Personally, I have no issues if Scotland and (potentially) Northern Ireland were to leave the Union. I think the UK would be a lesser place without them, but if many Brexiters keep harping on about "being English" then they cannot in any way object if a Scottish person wanted a seperate Scotland. What I do find interesting is that those who were pro-European Union seem more inclined to support a breakup of the United Kingdom, while those who were keen on us leaving the EU talk about the sanctity of the United Kingdom (which is actually only 99 years old). And, unless the Unionists take Gordon Brown's warning to heart, if there is a referendum vote in the near future in Scotland or Northern Ireland, then Unionists are at risk of making the same mistake the Remainers made leading up to 2016 by focussing on the fears of leaving rather than the benefits of remaining.

I'm pretty sure Brexiteers were harping on about being British which is consistent with upholding the sanctity of the United Kingdom. Having said that, I agree with you in so much as the landscape changed after the Scottish independence referendum so I personally believe Scotland should be afforded another vote. Northern Ireland is a complicated kettle of fish though. If there was a Northern Ireland independence referendum then its not unreasonable to assume that the rise in the Catholic population would lead to an independent Northern Ireland as the Catholic population would see this as a move away from Westminster/England. However, that doesn't necessarily mean they will become part of the EU or even part of Eire; that is a completely separate issue. In fact, they probably wouldn't be able to satisfy the necessary rules to join the EU so could be left in a right pickle economically. It could also have a huge impact on the Protestant community of Northern Ireland and without meaning to sound dramatic, there is the real possibility of a situation akin to what has happened around the World in places where the religion/belief of a part of the population is not recognised or accepted. Like I say, a complicated kettle of fish.

It wouldn’t be hard to imagine an immediate return to the troubles, this time with Protestants feeling hard done by and excluded from most decision making.

It was the protestants that started the troubles last time not the catholics. The British Army was originally sent in to protect the catholics.

The main issue driving the rise of the Scottish independence movement is simply the perceived democratic deficit.
Scotland believe they are being ruled by a party and a government implementing policies they didn’t vote for, with Brexit being the most high profile one. In the 2019 general election that people say was a Tory landslide it wasn’t in Scotland where the Tories only got 25% of the votes in Scotland and lost seats to the SNP.
The Scottish government has limited tax raising powers and is not permitted to borrow monies to fund their priorities as Nicola Sturgeon is often keen to mention because she says if they could they would have done additional things during this pandemic.

It was the protestants that started the troubles last time not the catholics. The British Army was originally sent in to protect the catholics.

...and a certain Gerry Adam's was thankful for that as the British Army saved his life, albeit inadvertently.

It was the protestants that started the troubles last time not the catholics. The British Army was originally sent in to protect the catholics.

...and a certain Gerry Adam's was thankful for that as the British Army saved his life, albeit inadvertently.

You’re absolutely right, which is why I think the backlash from Protestants suddenly finding they are a minority grouping would be inevitable.

The main issue driving the rise of the Scottish independence movement is simply the perceived democratic deficit.
Scotland believe they are being ruled by a party and a government implementing policies they didn’t vote for, with Brexit being the most high profile one. In the 2019 general election that people say was a Tory landslide it wasn’t in Scotland where the Tories only got 25% of the votes in Scotland and lost seats to the SNP.
The Scottish government has limited tax raising powers and is not permitted to borrow monies to fund their priorities as Nicola Sturgeon is often keen to mention because she says if they could they would have done additional things during this pandemic.

Well......... 'tis true enough up to a point.......but we should look at this in a wider historical context. For a start although it was a big win for the SNP the Tories were clearly the second biggest in terms of popular vote at the last election as they were in 2017. It's also worth remembering Scotland hasn't always been some kind of bedrock of socialism and as the graphic shows the Tories have been at least the second biggest party in all but five elections since 1900 - the five being between 1997 and 2015 so you could say their 2017 & 2019 performance was a return to the mean.


As much as I don't like the Tories I really don't buy the argument they would want the UK to break up just because they'd have more chance of permanently running the England-Wales rump (and how long would Wales stay?). It would be a huge blow to the English perception of who we are, and a further reduction in our prestige and political clout following on from the hit that has already taken with Brexit. Not to mention the large chunk of Tory grandees with business & family ties in Scotland ( and the Queen would be livid!). No, I reckon they'd fight tooth and nail to stop it - to the extent they may actually make matters worse if they stubbornly stand in the way of a second referendum.

Remember Theresa May's fraught meeting with Nicola Sturgeon? There you had one leader saying we must remain a union because we're better & stronger together (at the very same time as she was trying to break away from a larger more effective union in the name of 'sovereignty') - and the other woman wanting to break away in the name 'sovereignty' at the same time as wanting to join the much larger union. Neither apparently able to see the absurd contradiction.

At the end of the day though, as much as I hate the idea and as damaging as it will be for us to become 'little England' we cannot and should not stop Scotland from freely choosing. Brexit utterly invalidated the Scottish referendum result. There are many in Scotland who voted to stay in the UK who also wanted to be part of the EU (Scotland voted Remain by about 66%) so it should be re-run. For all of the problems and all the costs that Brexit has wrought (and will continue to do so) the disintegration of the UK was always the biggest threat. John Major banged this drum as loudly as possible but it was lost in all the flag waving jingoism of Brexit (ironically union flag waving). The best we can do is for all our politicians to argue as persuasively as possible and, within reason, take advantage of the timing of the referendum that is in our control.

At the end of the day though, as much as I hate the idea and as damaging as it will be for us to become 'little England' we cannot and should not stop Scotland from freely choosing. Brexit utterly invalidated the Scottish referendum result. There are many in Scotland who voted to stay in the UK who also wanted to be part of the EU (Scotland voted Remain by about 66%) so it should be re-run. For all of the problems and all the costs that Brexit has wrought (and will continue to do so) the disintegration of the UK was always the biggest threat. John Major banged this drum as loudly as possible but it was lost in all the flag waving jingoism of Brexit (ironically union flag waving). The best we can do is for all our politicians to argue as persuasively as possible and, within reason, take advantage of the timing of the referendum that is in our control.

If Westminster did allow Scotland to have another referendum, It wouldn't surprise me if the Scots voted in exactly the same way as they did the first time i.e. to remain as part of the Union. Sturgeon is banging on about how Scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain in the EU and on that basis, along with the election gains, seems pretty sure Scotland will vote to leave the Union. I dont think they will. What she seems to be losing sight of is the fact that voting to stay or leave the Union and voting to stay or leave the EU are two completely separate and vastly different things. If I was Boris I would let the Scots have their referendum, after all we do live in a democracy and to be fair to Sturgeon she does have a strong case in principle. It is a dangerous drum she's beating though because if Scotland does have its referendum and votes to stay in the Union then Sturgeon and the SNP would surely have to fall on their sword. Conservatives could then start to gather a bit more support North of the Border....as they say, be careful what you wish for.