Is there an estimate of when the result will be announced?

Is it worth waiting up for?

2am.

From what I've seen, Labour have poured everything into this. Turnout at about 45%, down 20% (as could be expected). Remains to be seen who has stayed at home, I doubt it's Labour voters.

Nevermind Old and Sad. Does Ed know about this one?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-12189185

Labour came 5th here in June 2009.

As by-elections go, this Cornish result is pretty seismic stuff.

I get so bored with the various parties claiming victory whether they won or lost.
"This defeat was expected - we are at the beginning of swingeing cuts due to the economic position left to us .... it is to be expected in a by-election.... protest vote" etc.
"A massive victory for us - we came second with an increased percentage. Everyone was predicting much worse."
"A massive improvement in our majority. A big show of support for Ed & his policies."
"It was all the immigrants who voted against us. If it wasn't for them we would have won." Well, the BNP didn't say that (I don't think) but I'm sure they would. Thank goodness they are dropping even further away than before.

It is all so predictable.

Even the "turning point" gain of a seat on the Cornwall council was achieved with a total vote of 700 in which the Labour candidate achieved 230 votes. I'm not a statistician but claims that the "massive swing of 25% to Labour" hardly amounts to a significant ringing endorsement of Labour policies nationwide.

BNP vote down from 2,546 in May to 1,560 yesterday (and from 5,091 in 2001).

The trouble is, an even more brainless party, UKIP, finished above them in 4th

I didn't realise there would be this much interest in by-elections on Pasoti! I know this is a shameless plug but I run a blog/website on elections.

As for OldE & Sad, the spin last night was dizzying. Labour were strong favourites and their victory was in line with expectations. The Liberal Democrats know they were helped out by 2010 Tory voters but the extent of this has been overstated. The core Tory vote here is about 18% so I doubt there were many dyed-in-the-wool types lending their vote.

Their real concern for the Tories is they seem to be losing votes to UKIP. Compared to the 2005 result in this seat the Tories are down 5.4% and UKIP are up 3.8%. In a lot of seats this won't make a difference, but in the marginals this could hurt them.

If any of you are interested enough to check out the website commentary on the Camborne North election will be published tomorrow (Saturday) morning.

It seems to me that, sadly, the LDs have completely blown their future. In the past they were successful at picking up seats in by-elections because they were neither the (oft hated) governing party or the (often ineffective) main opposition party. Once they had acquired a toe-hold via a by-election that had a certain amount of success holding on to such seats because they were, in general, rather sensible, uncontroversial and seemingly honest.

Now they won't win by-elections because they won't gain the anti-government or the anti-opposition protest votes so their source of future seats is limited to those which they already hold. Of these, the ones they hold narrowly from Tories will probably swing Tory in the future (what's the difference) and the ones they hold narrowly from Labour will probably swing Labour in the future.

I honestly thing they've completely mucked up.

The transition from being a party of protest to a party in power was always going to be difficult. The Lib/Dem vote held up better than I expected and they actually increased their share of the poll.

Just a thought but now that the LibDems have been outed as a bunch of U turning lying gits with more front than Jordan, doesn't that put them at the same level as the other two? and therefore make them electable.

It seems to me that, sadly, the LDs have completely blown their future. In the past they were successful at picking up seats in by-elections because they were neither the (oft hated) governing party or the (often ineffective) main opposition party. Once they had acquired a toe-hold via a by-election that had a certain amount of success holding on to such seats because they were, in general, rather sensible, uncontroversial and seemingly honest.

Now they won't win by-elections because they won't gain the anti-government or the anti-opposition protest votes so their source of future seats is limited to those which they already hold. Of these, the ones they hold narrowly from Tories will probably swing Tory in the future (what's the difference) and the ones they hold narrowly from Labour will probably swing Labour in the future.

I honestly thing they've completely mucked up.

Think you've missed the fact they're trying to change the voting system

Proposed changes to the voting system

I didn't realise there would be this much interest in by-elections on Pasoti! I know this is a shameless plug but I run a blog/website on elections.

As for OldE & Sad, the spin last night was dizzying. Labour were strong favourites and their victory was in line with expectations. The Liberal Democrats know they were helped out by 2010 Tory voters but the extent of this has been overstated. The core Tory vote here is about 18% so I doubt there were many dyed-in-the-wool types lending their vote.

Their real concern for the Tories is they seem to be losing votes to UKIP. Compared to the 2005 result in this seat the Tories are down 5.4% and UKIP are up 3.8%. In a lot of seats this won't make a difference, but in the marginals this could hurt them.

If any of you are interested enough to check out the website commentary on the Camborne North election will be published tomorrow (Saturday) morning.

I can recommend Tom's Blog - tis super.