Games in Hand - Table

Ottawa Green · Feb 18, 2018

1-1 @ HT

Keepitgreen · Feb 18, 2018

FT 1-1. Could have been worse.

Quizmike · Feb 18, 2018

If every team had played 34 games and won all their games in hand (games in hand in brackets). After Blackpool v Peterborough

1) Wigan 75pts (4 games in hand)
2) Shrewsbury 70 (2)
3) Blackburn 69 (3)
4) Rotherham 62 (1)
5) Charlton 57 (2)
6) Scunthorpe 56 (0)
7) Bradford 53 (1)
8) Peterborough 52 (2)
9) ARGYLE 50 (0)
10) Portsmouth 49 (1)
11) Bristol Rovers 48 (1)
12) Gillingham 48 (1)
13) Walsall 47 (2)
14) Southend 47 (1)
15) Oxford 44 (1)
16) Rochdale 43 (6)
17) Doncaster 42 (0)
18) Blackpool 42 (1)
19) Fleetwood 42 (2)
20) Oldham 39 (1)
21) Wimbledon 37 (1)
22) Northampton 37 (0)
23) MK Dons 36 (2)
24) Bury 32 (2)

Pogleswoody · Feb 19, 2018

Quizmike":23gc1ehb said:
If every team had played 34 games and won all their games in hand (games in hand in brackets). After Blackpool v Peterborough

1) Wigan 75pts (4 games in hand)
2) Shrewsbury 70 (2)
3) Blackburn 69 (3)
4) Rotherham 62 (1)
5) Charlton 57 (2)
6) Scunthorpe 56 (0)
7) Bradford 53 (1)
8) Peterborough 52 (2)
9) ARGYLE 50 (0)
10) Portsmouth 49 (1)
11) Bristol Rovers 48 (1)
12) Gillingham 48 (1)
13) Walsall 47 (2)
14) Southend 47 (1)
15) Oxford 44 (1)
16) Rochdale 43 (6)
17) Doncaster 42 (0)
18) Blackpool 42 (1)
19) Fleetwood 42 (2)
20) Oldham 39 (1)
21) Wimbledon 37 (1)
22) Northampton 37 (0)
23) MK Dons 36 (2)
24) Bury 32 (2)

I bet Rochdale would take that this morning!!

adegreenarmy · Feb 19, 2018

This is a bloody daft topic - because the teams won't win all their games in hand - as shown by yesterdays match that finished Blackpool 1 Posh 1.

Now Peterborough are 4 points behind us and have 2 games in hand, but they probably won't win them both.

The form table might be a better predictor of the potential finishing places, and right now you would predict that Wigan (2 games in hand and they are more likely to win them) and Rotherham (even better form than us) will be promoted automatically. Form is also likely to see Bradford and Scunthorpe falling away, as they are both in the bottom half of the form table. That would leave Blackburn, Shrewsbury and 2 others making the play-offs.

Looking at the league table and the form table today, you would predict the last two play-off places to be between Scunthorpe, Charlton, Peterborough and Argyle. You might include Bradford if Simon Grayson can get them motoring but if our good form continues for the next few games, then we would move from possible to probable for 5th or 6th place.

Lundan Cabbie · Feb 19, 2018

Current form is not future form though. It’s why a manager can win manager of the month one month but not the next. No curse, just fluctuations in form. It is now set up for a great run in and I hope you all can enjoy the ride.

Bryan Tregunna · Feb 19, 2018

OK, so the trouble with taking average points over the season is that it includes our horrible start. Form is a better guide, so if we take each team's form and project this, this is the result. (e.g.Shrews have 8 home games, so I've used their 8 Home game form, and they have 6 away games remaining and I've used their form over the past 6 games).

1: Wigan Athletic ; 97
2: Blackburn Rovers ; 92
3: Rotherham United ; 91
4: Shrewsbury Town ; 90
5: Plymouth Argyle ; 79
6: Scunthorpe United ; 73
7: Charlton Athletic ; 70
8: Bristol Rovers ; 69
9: Gillingham ; 68
10: Peterborough United; 67
11: Bradford City ; 61
12: Southend United ; 61
13: Portsmouth ; 60
14: Doncaster Rovers ; 60
15: Walsall ; 60
16: AFC Wimbledon ; 54
17: Oxford United ; 53
18: Northampton Town ; 52
19: Blackpool ; 51
20: Fleetwood Town ; 46
21: Oldham Athletic ; 46
22: Rochdale ; 44
23: Bury ; 39
24: Milton Keynes Dons; 37

Of course, the trouble with taking recent form is that it doesn't take into account improvement or dips.
However, I'd rather be a Green supporter than Scunthorpe or Charlton in the current situation (...or EVER!)

Mark Colling · Feb 19, 2018

Bryan_Tregunna":3blb8hr3 said:
OK, so the trouble with taking average points over the season is that it includes our horrible start. Form is a better guide, ...

Very true but, whilst I have shifted from "no chance of the play-offs" to "maybe, just maybe", I am aware that it's the hope that gets you!

We have been on a very long run of good results and we still haven't got the points on the board to claw our way into the top 6 - and teams around us (Charlton, in particular) have games in hand so we could quickly find ourselves adrift again with just a slight dip in form.

It's definitely possible but I still think that the odds are against us. A couple of poor results for Scunthorpe and to drag them down a bit would certainly change the balance though.

Quizmike · Feb 19, 2018

adegreenarmy":u1p5uaa8 said:
This is a bloody daft topic - because the teams won't win all their games in hand - as shown by yesterdays match that finished Blackpool 1 Posh 1.

Now Peterborough are 4 points behind us and have 2 games in hand, but they probably won't win them both.

The form table might be a better predictor of the potential finishing places, and right now you would predict that Wigan (2 games in hand and they are more likely to win them) and Rotherham (even better form than us) will be promoted automatically. Form is also likely to see Bradford and Scunthorpe falling away, as they are both in the bottom half of the form table. That would leave Blackburn, Shrewsbury and 2 others making the play-offs.

Looking at the league table and the form table today, you would predict the last two play-off places to be between Scunthorpe, Charlton, Peterborough and Argyle. You might include Bradford if Simon Grayson can get them motoring but if our good form continues for the next few games, then we would move from possible to probable for 5th or 6th place.

Yeah I know. As I put in the first post of the thread, it's impossible. This is mean to be an indication of how many points each team would have if they won all their games in hand, which I've put in league form so people can easily see which teams can still get ahead of us and which are falling behind.

Quizmike · Feb 22, 2018

After the midweek games

1) Wigan 75pts (4 games in hand)
3) Blackburn 69 (2)
2) Shrewsbury 68 (1)
4) Rotherham 62 (1)
5) Charlton 57 (2)
6) Scunthorpe 56 (0)
7) Bradford 53 (1)
8) Peterborough 52 (2)
9) ARGYLE 50 (0)
10) Portsmouth 49 (0)
11) Bristol Rovers 48 (1)
12) Walsall 47 (2)
13) Southend 47 (1)
14) Gillingham 46 (0)
15) Oxford 44 (1)
16) Doncaster 42 (0)
17) Blackpool 42 (1)
18) Rochdale 41 (5)
19) Fleetwood 39 (1)
20) Oldham 39 (1)
21) Wimbledon 37 (1)
22) Northampton 37 (0)
23) MK Dons 34 (1)
24) Bury 29 (1)

Mark Colling · Feb 22, 2018

Looking at another way, 6th place will almost certainly be between 70 and 75 points.

Based on the points per game required to get there, I would suggest four teams are nailed on so the remaining 2 spots will come from up to 10 teams depending on where you suspend credibility on how good a run-in is achievable over 12 to 14 games:

Pts 70 75
66 0.31 0.69 Blackburn
63 0.44 0.75 Wigan
65 0.38 0.77 Shrewsbury
59 0.85 1.23 Rotherham

56 1.17 1.58 Scunthorpe
51 1.36 1.71 Charlton
50 1.54 1.92 Bradford
46 1.71 2.07 Peterborough
50 1.67 2.08 ARGYLE
49 1.75 2.17 Portsmouth
45 1.92 2.31 Bristol Rovers
44 2.00 2.38 Southend
46 2.00 2.42 Gillingham
41 2.07 2.43 Walsall

41 2.23 2.62 Oxford Utd
42 2.33 2.75 Doncaster
39 2.38 2.77 Blackpool
26 2.59 2.88 Rochdale
37 2.54 2.92 Wimbledon
36 2.62 3.00 Fleetwood
36 2.62 3.00 Oldham
37 2.75 3.17 Northampton
31 3.00 3.38 MK Dons
26 3.38 3.77 Bury

Fergy · Feb 22, 2018

We need to be wary of Fleetwood with Sheridan now at the helm :shocked:

Quizmike · Feb 24, 2018

If all had played 35 games and won all games in hand, which isn't possible and is just a demonstration of the maximum number of points any particular team could have at this point

1) Wigan 78pts (4 games in hand)
3) Blackburn 72 (1)
2) Shrewsbury 71 (1)
4) Rotherham 65 (1)
5) Charlton 57 (2)
6) Scunthorpe 57 (0)
7) Peterborough 53 (2)
8) ARGYLE 53 (0)
9) Bradford 53 (1)
10) Southend 50 (2)
11) Portsmouth 49 (0)
12) Bristol Rovers 49 (1)
13) Walsall 47 (2)
14) Gillingham 46 (0)
15) Oxford 45 (1)
16) Blackpool 45 (1)
17) Doncaster 42 (0)
18) Oldham 42 (2)
19) Wimbledon 41 (1)
20) Rochdale 41 (5)
21) Fleetwood 40 (1)
22) Northampton 38 (0)
23) MK Dons 35 (1)
24) Bury 32 (1)

Cobi Budge · Feb 24, 2018

Take it game by game, keep playing with freedom and don't worry to much about anyone else, see where it takes us, loving watching Argyle right now.

Mark Colling · Feb 24, 2018

Based on points per game achieved:

97.9 Wigan
93.4 Blackburn

92.0 Shrewsbury
83.9 Rotherham
74.9 Scunthorpe
71.1 Charlton

69.7 ARGYLE
67.6 Bradford
65.5 Peterborough
64.4 Portsmouth
62.2 Bristol Rovers
61.3 Southend

Points per game required to get to 75 points:

0.50 Blackburn
0.58 Shrewsbury

0.60 Wigan
1.08 Rotherham
1.64 Scunthorpe
1.85 Charlton

2.00 ARGYLE
2.08 Bradford
2.15 Peterborough
2.36 Portsmouth
2.38 Southend
2.42 Bristol Rovers

As far as I'm concerned we are still playing catch up, but we are still catching up ...

Games in Hand - Table

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