Yes thats an excellent mantra for the manager and the team but as fans we are allowed to drift away and speculate and postulate....
Since I was up early today checking if it was a school snow day ( it is) I found myself browsing the fixtures of the teams around us and noting some interesting factors which may make the run in more interesting...some good, some not so
So assuming 75 points gets sixth the simplest way of getting there is to win games so we need seven wins and a draw...so can afford to lose three more games as long as we don't draw loads. It is a big ask...but it isn't impossible so lets assume we at least give ourselves a fighting chance of doing so....
On that basis our main rivals ( sorry Gillingham, Bristol and Southend) need the following
Peterborough (PU) 8 wins and a draw...can afford three defeats
Charlton (C) 8 wins could afford five defeats!
Scunthorpe (S) Six wins Could afford five defeats!
Bradford (BC) 8 wins and a draw Can afford three defeats
Portsmouth (PO) 9 wins or eight wins and two draws Two more defeats only or it's been a season of consolidation
Rotherham (R) 4 wins and a draw Can afford 8 defeats
It is possible Gillingham Bristol Rovers or Southend could gallop into the reckoning but I had to draw the line somewhere.
Assuming 1 2 and 3 are Wigan (W) Blackburn (BR) and Shrewsbury (SH) three of the these six and us will make the Play off picture complete and these top three are so far away from us that even if they melt we probably won't catch them so it is academic for us
Rotherham too on their run look like they will also make it comfortably so it is two from six.
So games between the above mean (duh!) points can't go to both
PA play SC, CA, PU, PO and R
PU play SH, CA, R, BR and PO plus PA of course
C play PU, PA, R, SC, SH,PO, and BR
SC play W,SH, PA C, and BC
BC play PO, W, BR, SH,and SC
PO play BC, W, PA, CA and PU
R play PU, CA, W, and PA
I haven't distinguished between home and away as at this stage I think it is academic, the main issue is it defines who keeps momentum
Of the run ins the following may be significant.
Rotherham have their next four games where the highest placed team they face is Gillingham meaning if they win all four they could be effectively in the play offs before they get to Peterborough Charlton and us
Bradfords next three games are at home followed by a derby at Doncaster Rovers so a decent run could haul them back in
By contrast Charlton have three consecutive away games including at Peterborough followed by Fleetwood at home ( then us)
Scunthorpe have Wigan and Shrewsbury in their next three games
Our Achilles heel in the fixture list is that we get to play all of our major rivals whilst they should still have a belief that they can get into the play offs...there are no dead rubbers (unless Pompey do badly over the next few games). We also have the potentially worst final two games in Rotherham and Gillingham. We do however ( and the weather may alter all of this ) have a decent run of fixtures in March with only Charlton to play from our rivals.
The teams we need to maintain form are Shrewsbury and Rotherham as they can seriously damage Peterborough Charlton and Scunthorpe. Of the rivals the one who we can probably afford to maintain some form are Charlton as they have a tougher end with Rotherham Bristol Rovers, Scunthorpe Shrewsbury Portsmouth and Blackburn as six of their last seven, before ending at Rochdale.
If Scunthorpe don't beat Oldham this weekend they may have a serious wobble as their form is not great and the pack may well close up. Thats said they have a decent buffer and I think they will scrape into the play offs
Peterborough look to be the contenders to watch...new manager in Evans, Marriott and Madison backed up by Bogle and Morais and a decent keeper. It would be good is Shrewsbury and Charlton beat them or at least take points over the next two weekends. That said their overall form isn't wonderful and with Shrewsbury, Charlton, us Blackburn and Rotherham to play they should be losing three or four or ( even better) five games before the season end. If the form book for those fixtures holds up I think we can pip them.
Charlton look vulnerable, even without the injuries and international call ups so I would be happy for them to win at Peterborough as I think they will drop enough points ( especially to us I hope) that the final run in will be too tough if they need to play catch up.
Rotherham look a shoe in for play offs and might even threaten the automatics which at least keeps the others on their toes. Wigan fixture pile up would be a worry if they didn't have the squad they do.
Despite their doom and gloom Bradford have a decent run in and could still challenge so Play up Pompey this weekend ( or whenever) as I think the Boys in Blue have the hardest route and I can't see them doing another last day back door miracle...
One thing is for sure, when rivals play each other, draws are our friend....and anything taken from them by the teams in mid/low/relegation places are a total bonus
My Optimistic Final Placements
1) Wigan
2) Blackburn
3) Rotherham
4) Shrewsbury
5) Argyle
6) Scunthorpe
7) Peterborough
8) Bradford City
9) Charlton
10) Gillingham
!1) Portsmouth
But then of course this is football......
It is going to be emotional
Since I was up early today checking if it was a school snow day ( it is) I found myself browsing the fixtures of the teams around us and noting some interesting factors which may make the run in more interesting...some good, some not so
So assuming 75 points gets sixth the simplest way of getting there is to win games so we need seven wins and a draw...so can afford to lose three more games as long as we don't draw loads. It is a big ask...but it isn't impossible so lets assume we at least give ourselves a fighting chance of doing so....
On that basis our main rivals ( sorry Gillingham, Bristol and Southend) need the following
Peterborough (PU) 8 wins and a draw...can afford three defeats
Charlton (C) 8 wins could afford five defeats!
Scunthorpe (S) Six wins Could afford five defeats!
Bradford (BC) 8 wins and a draw Can afford three defeats
Portsmouth (PO) 9 wins or eight wins and two draws Two more defeats only or it's been a season of consolidation
Rotherham (R) 4 wins and a draw Can afford 8 defeats
It is possible Gillingham Bristol Rovers or Southend could gallop into the reckoning but I had to draw the line somewhere.
Assuming 1 2 and 3 are Wigan (W) Blackburn (BR) and Shrewsbury (SH) three of the these six and us will make the Play off picture complete and these top three are so far away from us that even if they melt we probably won't catch them so it is academic for us
Rotherham too on their run look like they will also make it comfortably so it is two from six.
So games between the above mean (duh!) points can't go to both
PA play SC, CA, PU, PO and R
PU play SH, CA, R, BR and PO plus PA of course
C play PU, PA, R, SC, SH,PO, and BR
SC play W,SH, PA C, and BC
BC play PO, W, BR, SH,and SC
PO play BC, W, PA, CA and PU
R play PU, CA, W, and PA
I haven't distinguished between home and away as at this stage I think it is academic, the main issue is it defines who keeps momentum
Of the run ins the following may be significant.
Rotherham have their next four games where the highest placed team they face is Gillingham meaning if they win all four they could be effectively in the play offs before they get to Peterborough Charlton and us
Bradfords next three games are at home followed by a derby at Doncaster Rovers so a decent run could haul them back in
By contrast Charlton have three consecutive away games including at Peterborough followed by Fleetwood at home ( then us)
Scunthorpe have Wigan and Shrewsbury in their next three games
Our Achilles heel in the fixture list is that we get to play all of our major rivals whilst they should still have a belief that they can get into the play offs...there are no dead rubbers (unless Pompey do badly over the next few games). We also have the potentially worst final two games in Rotherham and Gillingham. We do however ( and the weather may alter all of this ) have a decent run of fixtures in March with only Charlton to play from our rivals.
The teams we need to maintain form are Shrewsbury and Rotherham as they can seriously damage Peterborough Charlton and Scunthorpe. Of the rivals the one who we can probably afford to maintain some form are Charlton as they have a tougher end with Rotherham Bristol Rovers, Scunthorpe Shrewsbury Portsmouth and Blackburn as six of their last seven, before ending at Rochdale.
If Scunthorpe don't beat Oldham this weekend they may have a serious wobble as their form is not great and the pack may well close up. Thats said they have a decent buffer and I think they will scrape into the play offs
Peterborough look to be the contenders to watch...new manager in Evans, Marriott and Madison backed up by Bogle and Morais and a decent keeper. It would be good is Shrewsbury and Charlton beat them or at least take points over the next two weekends. That said their overall form isn't wonderful and with Shrewsbury, Charlton, us Blackburn and Rotherham to play they should be losing three or four or ( even better) five games before the season end. If the form book for those fixtures holds up I think we can pip them.
Charlton look vulnerable, even without the injuries and international call ups so I would be happy for them to win at Peterborough as I think they will drop enough points ( especially to us I hope) that the final run in will be too tough if they need to play catch up.
Rotherham look a shoe in for play offs and might even threaten the automatics which at least keeps the others on their toes. Wigan fixture pile up would be a worry if they didn't have the squad they do.
Despite their doom and gloom Bradford have a decent run in and could still challenge so Play up Pompey this weekend ( or whenever) as I think the Boys in Blue have the hardest route and I can't see them doing another last day back door miracle...
One thing is for sure, when rivals play each other, draws are our friend....and anything taken from them by the teams in mid/low/relegation places are a total bonus
My Optimistic Final Placements
1) Wigan
2) Blackburn
3) Rotherham
4) Shrewsbury
5) Argyle
6) Scunthorpe
7) Peterborough
8) Bradford City
9) Charlton
10) Gillingham
!1) Portsmouth
But then of course this is football......
It is going to be emotional