Third League One club in a row if we make it past Rovers. Can't say it's overly exciting but at least we're at home - I doubt Ipswich or Coventry are particularly enthused about the prospect of us beating Rovers!

A board for general discussion about Plymouth Argyle and Plymouth Argyle Ladies. Credible January transfer rumours can be posted on this forum.

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by **WoodsyGreen**

» 22:43 02 Dec 2019

» 22:43 02 Dec 2019

Third League One club in a row if we make it past Rovers. Can't say it's overly exciting but at least we're at home - I doubt Ipswich or Coventry are particularly enthused about the prospect of us beating Rovers!

by **Devongreenowl**

» 22:59 02 Dec 2019

» 22:59 02 Dec 2019

Ipswich fans definitely won’t fancy a trip down here. It’s about 320 miles depending on which route you take. If we do play them, we definitely don’t want a replay!

by **Quizmike**

» 23:35 02 Dec 2019

» 23:35 02 Dec 2019

Balham_Green wrote:IJN wrote: Exactly the same as all the other permutations.

It's the same as the National Lottery, the odds of 1,2,3,4,5 and 6 are the same as any other group of numbers.

Er dont think you have done the calculations! 'Same as other permutations' is not correct. Just said it off the top of your head.

You are completely correct BG. The draw tonight was MORE likely than drawing lottery numbers.

As there were 44 balls for top two division teams and only 20 for lower league teams...

The odds that the first ball would be for a top two division team was 44/64 or 68.75%

The odds that the second ball would be for a top two division team was 43/63 or 68.25%

The third ball odds were 67.47%

The fourth ball odds were 67.21%

etc

Even after 12 balls for the top two divisions the odds on the next one being another top team were 32/52 or 61.54%. So really, you could say it was a surprise that a lower league team came out so early.

by **Balham_Green**

» 23:45 02 Dec 2019

» 23:45 02 Dec 2019

Quizmike wrote:Balham_Green wrote:IJN wrote: Exactly the same as all the other permutations.

It's the same as the National Lottery, the odds of 1,2,3,4,5 and 6 are the same as any other group of numbers.

Er dont think you have done the calculations! 'Same as other permutations' is not correct. Just said it off the top of your head.

You are completely correct BG. The draw tonight was MORE likely than drawing lottery numbers.

As there were 44 balls for top two division teams and only 20 for lower league teams...

The odds that the first ball would be for a top two division team was 44/64 or 68.75%

The odds that the second ball would be for a top two division team was 43/63 or 68.25%

The third ball odds were 67.47%

The fourth ball odds were 67.21%

etc

Even after 12 balls for the top two divisions the odds on the next one being another top team were 32/52 or 61.54%. So really, you could say it was a surprise that a lower league team came out so early.

Incorrect again. You have looked at each draw individually rather than the chances of them all happening consecutively. Have forgotten my o level maths and cant be arsed to work it out. Perhaps if its a quiet day at the office tomorrow.

by **Ave_IT**

» 00:37 03 Dec 2019

» 00:37 03 Dec 2019

Balham_Green wrote:Quizmike wrote:Balham_Green wrote:IJN wrote: Exactly the same as all the other permutations.

It's the same as the National Lottery, the odds of 1,2,3,4,5 and 6 are the same as any other group of numbers.

Er dont think you have done the calculations! 'Same as other permutations' is not correct. Just said it off the top of your head.

You are completely correct BG. The draw tonight was MORE likely than drawing lottery numbers.

As there were 44 balls for top two division teams and only 20 for lower league teams...

The odds that the first ball would be for a top two division team was 44/64 or 68.75%

The odds that the second ball would be for a top two division team was 43/63 or 68.25%

The third ball odds were 67.47%

The fourth ball odds were 67.21%

etc

Even after 12 balls for the top two divisions the odds on the next one being another top team were 32/52 or 61.54%. So really, you could say it was a surprise that a lower league team came out so early.

Incorrect again. You have looked at each draw individually rather than the chances of them all happening consecutively. Have forgotten my o level maths and cant be arsed to work it out. Perhaps if its a quiet day at the office tomorrow.

I think what IJN is saying is that the odds of any particular set of 12 balls coming out first is exactly the same as any other particular set of 12 balls ...... in the same way as the odds of the six lottery balls being 1,2 3,4,5,6 is exactly the same as any other six lottery ball combination. Also ....... If they did the draw again the chances that EXACTLY the same would be repeated NOW is no less likely than any of the other possible outcomes. Chance has no memory - the probability of a coin toss being a head is 50% even if you've had 100 consecutive heads immediately before.

However, all that does assume there is no systematic error going on and it is entirely random - as BG says if the balls aren't mixed properly the low numbers might be more likely to be on top so more likely to be pulled out first......then all that goes out the window.

Smarter people than I have been total idiots - and I've met them all.

by **Shadowknight**

» 05:54 03 Dec 2019

» 05:54 03 Dec 2019

Can't they just put all four sides on the same pitch at the same time? Save all the faffing about.

"The trouble with quotes on the Internet is that you can never be sure they are accurate." - Martin Luther King.

by **WoodsyGreen**

» 09:01 03 Dec 2019

» 09:01 03 Dec 2019

On another note, did I imagine Tony Adams saying he can't remember the last time he did the FA Cup draw because he was "completely drunk" at the time?

by **pastiesforlife**

» 09:43 03 Dec 2019

» 09:43 03 Dec 2019

An uninspiring draw but if you get a Prem team in the third round it will only be their reserves/youth/players returning from injury. Better to wait to the fifth or later rounds when they start to take the competition seriously.

Welcome to

'the likes of Plymouth'

'the likes of Plymouth'

by **dunlop**

» 11:47 03 Dec 2019

» 11:47 03 Dec 2019

oddball wrote: very mundane draw whether we win or not against the gas...won't be televised and will hardly get a mention....so much for being up for the cup....

Al glad you are still saying we.

Plymouth born Janner

I don't want a soccer club I want a football club.

I don't want a soccer club I want a football club.

by **oldage**

» 13:20 03 Dec 2019

» 13:20 03 Dec 2019

Whats not to like about the draw?Two homes against League 1 teams to come , extra income and a chance to progress in the cup.

by **andyplym**

» 14:13 03 Dec 2019

» 14:13 03 Dec 2019

The @EmiratesFACup replay against @Official_BRFC will be held on Tuesday, December 17.

It will also be live on @btsportfootball

winner of Pasoti Sky Sports Super 6 2018/19

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