Ave_IT wrote:Balham_Green wrote:Quizmike wrote:Balham_Green wrote:IJN wrote: Exactly the same as all the other permutations.

It's the same as the National Lottery, the odds of 1,2,3,4,5 and 6 are the same as any other group of numbers.

Er dont think you have done the calculations! 'Same as other permutations' is not correct. Just said it off the top of your head.

You are completely correct BG. The draw tonight was MORE likely than drawing lottery numbers.

As there were 44 balls for top two division teams and only 20 for lower league teams...

The odds that the first ball would be for a top two division team was 44/64 or 68.75%

The odds that the second ball would be for a top two division team was 43/63 or 68.25%

The third ball odds were 67.47%

The fourth ball odds were 67.21%

etc

Even after 12 balls for the top two divisions the odds on the next one being another top team were 32/52 or 61.54%. So really, you could say it was a surprise that a lower league team came out so early.

Incorrect again. You have looked at each draw individually rather than the chances of them all happening consecutively. Have forgotten my o level maths and cant be arsed to work it out. Perhaps if its a quiet day at the office tomorrow.

I think what IJN is saying is that the odds of any particular set of 12 balls coming out first is exactly the same as any other particular set of 12 balls ...... in the same way as the odds of the six lottery balls being 1,2 3,4,5,6 is exactly the same as any other six lottery ball combination. Also ....... If they did the draw again the chances that EXACTLY the same would be repeated NOW is no less likely than any of the other possible outcomes. Chance has no memory - the probability of a coin toss being a head is 50% even if you've had 100 consecutive heads immediately before.

However, all that does assume there is no systematic error going on and it is entirely random - as BG says if the balls aren't mixed properly the low numbers might be more likely to be on top so more likely to be pulled out first......then all that goes out the window.

So contrary to the mathematical genius of IJN and Quizmike the odds of all first 12 balls in top 2 divisions are approx 10% suggesting my original theory is correct. They dont mix up the bl@ddy balls! Does it matter? A lot if it means we are more likely to get Ipswich than a Prem team!