Profitable teams

Green 1886 · Jan 17, 2020

Using the array of data I have at my disposal, something that may (or may not) be of interest on a slow Friday afternoon.

To present day, from the start of the 2012 / 13 season Argyle are one of only 12 teams in the football league and conference levels that would have returned you a profit if you'd have back them to win in every game.

These use the average odds that were available for each match and assumes a £10 stake on each match, and shows how stingy the bookmakers are.

Lundan Cabbie's eyes will probably light up now seeing Palace top of something :lol:

Team P/L
CRYSTAL PALACE £375.70
NORTH FERRIBY £138.00
BURTON £135.00
EXETER £132.80
BURNLEY £129.20
PLYMOUTH £109.80
WOLVES £79.70
BRAINTREE £77.00
LEICESTER £58.00
SALISBURY £40.30
FC UNITED £33.00
MAIDENHEAD £25.30
ACCRINGTON -£8.40
NEWCASTLE -£11.30

Lundan Cabbie · Jan 17, 2020

You’ve still not convinced me to bet on my team, or any team for that matter. If those are returns over 7 years or so, I’d hate to see the other list that contains the losers.

The Doctor · Jan 17, 2020

It's interesting how much MORE profitable, by this measure, betting on Crystal Palace is than any other team (almost 3 x better). I guess that means that CP surprise the bookies more often than any other team or else they have a tendency to win games that they are really not expected to win (giving large positive returns).

Presumably these figures are the net return over the period with all of the bets being complete separate. I guess the trick is to identify teams who are well placed to have several seasons on a generally upward trajectory. On that basis Argyle look like a really good bet for the next 2-3 years. I'm actually quite tempted to give this a go over an extended period, perhaps not at the level of £10 per game though (at that level it would only take a few matches of setback at the outset and I'd be straight out).

Action Jackson · Jan 17, 2020

Who was bottom?

Green 1886 · Jan 17, 2020

Lundan Cabbie":2wokvdos said:
You’ve still not convinced me to bet on my team, or any team for that matter. If those are returns over 7 years or so, I’d hate to see the other list that contains the losers.

Precisely, its very hard to "blind bet" and win money over a long period of time.

Green 1886 · Jan 17, 2020

The Doctor":syzxaz3c said:
Presumably these figures are the net return over the period with all of the bets being complete separate. I guess the trick is to identify teams who are well placed to have several seasons on a generally upward trajectory. On that basis Argyle look like a really good bet for the next 2-3 years. I'm actually quite tempted to give this a go over an extended period, perhaps not at the level of £10 per game though (at that level it would only take a few matches of setback at the outset and I'd be straight out).

Correct, all separate bets, and considering Argyle have a relegation season within that they've done well to stay positive equity.

I wouldn't advise blind betting on this though - especially as we are gaining some traction and more media attention which naturally pushes the odds down as punters start backing us

Green 1886 · Jan 17, 2020

Action Jackson":bq5eovma said:
Who was bottom?

Bottom 3

OLDHAM -£1,091.50
YORK -£1,078.20
BLACKPOOL -£1,006.50

justanotherfan · Jan 17, 2020

Somewhat confused as I don`t see "Plymouth Argyle" mentioned in your list.

Action Jackson · Jan 17, 2020

football-bet-data":hd0d91fw said:
Action Jackson":hd0d91fw said:

Who was bottom?

Click to expand...

Bottom 3

OLDHAM -£1,091.50
YORK -£1,078.20
BLACKPOOL -£1,006.50

What were the reasons? Constantly being underpriced whilst mainly losing/drawing games?

Green 1886 · Jan 17, 2020

Action Jackson":14zkamo3 said:
football-bet-data":14zkamo3 said:

Action Jackson":14zkamo3 said:

Who was bottom?

Click to expand...

Bottom 3

OLDHAM -£1,091.50
YORK -£1,078.20
BLACKPOOL -£1,006.50

Click to expand...

What were the reasons? Constantly being underpriced whilst mainly losing/drawing games?

That I can’t tell you, can only assume - same as you that they have lost / drawn more games than anticipated and generally only won when at poor odds

Fergy · Jan 17, 2020

I thought Sunderland would be near the bottom. They’re typically priced at wider than EVS for most home games and always seem to draw.

JannerinCardiff · Jan 17, 2020

Great bit of info... really interesting!! Thanks. I’m intrigued to now see the whole list - any chance of that?

Green 1886 · Jan 18, 2020

Fergy":mv39yd0f said:
I thought Sunderland would be near the bottom. They’re typically priced at wider than EVS for most home games and always seem to draw.

Can’t remember where they were placed. I know pompey were well down the list. Another of the bookies favourites

Green 1886 · Jan 18, 2020

JannerinCardiff":1nay2ic4 said:
Great bit of info... really interesting!! Thanks. I’m intrigued to now see the whole list - any chance of that?

No probs DM me your email and I’ll send it over

The Doctor · Feb 3, 2020

football-bet-data":33rv497u said:
The Doctor":33rv497u said:

Presumably these figures are the net return over the period with all of the bets being complete separate. I guess the trick is to identify teams who are well placed to have several seasons on a generally upward trajectory. On that basis Argyle look like a really good bet for the next 2-3 years. I'm actually quite tempted to give this a go over an extended period, perhaps not at the level of £10 per game though (at that level it would only take a few matches of setback at the outset and I'd be straight out).

Click to expand...

Correct, all separate bets, and considering Argyle have a relegation season within that they've done well to stay positive equity.

I wouldn't advise blind betting on this though - especially as we are gaining some traction and more media attention which naturally pushes the odds down as punters start backing us

Well, you win some (three so far to be exact - Mansfield, Stevenage and Newport) and you lose some (one so far - Crawley)...

Just for fun I've put a £3 bet on Argyle to win for each of the last 4 games and currently I have made £7.71 - £3.00 = £4.71 profit (curse that stoppage time equaliser from Crawley - I'd be £9.71 up but for that...). I'm a bit fearful that all of my profit so far AND my £3.00 stake could be wiped out by the next three games but on the other hand the odds will be more in my favour for them so if we CAN win one of the three I should still be in profit. Obviously I am not doing this to make money - just for interest.