The Final Countdown

Andy S · Mar 10, 2020

Haven't seen anything posted before but these are the "run-ins".

Swindon have Oldham (A), Stevenage (A), Crawley (H), Salford (H), Walsall (A), Mansfield (A), Cheltenham (H), Morecambe (A), Orient (H), Macclesfield (A)

Crewe have Mansfield (A), Colchester (A), FGR (H), Port Vale (A), Northampton (H), Newport (H), Bradford (A), Grimsby (H), Cambridge (A)

Argyle have Morecambe (A), Orient (A), Exeter (H), Grimsby (A), FGR (H), Walsall (A), Northampton (H), Oldham (A), Port Vale (H)

Exeter have Salford (H), Scunthorpe (H), Argyle (A), Bradford (H), Cheltenham (A), Morecambe (H), Mansfield (A), Carlisle (H), Orient (A)

Cheltenham have Cambridge (A), Macclesfield (A), Grimsby (H), Newport (H), FGR (A), Exeter (H), Swindon (A), Crawley (H), Stevenage (A), Salford (H)

Northampton have FGR (A), Carlisle (H), Cambridge (A), Oldham (H), Crewe (A), Colchester (H), Argyle (A), Bradford (H), Newport (A)

On paper it all looks pretty even. Both Swindon and Crewe only have one Top 6 side to play, the rest have 2. Exeter are the only team not to have 5 away games.

Swindon seem to have the worst for the schedule with two Tuesday games crammed in at the end of this month. We only have the Monday evening Exeter game, the rest are all weekend stuff (apart from Easter).

Ottawa Green · Mar 10, 2020

Currently With the positions in the league

Swindon have Oldham (A) 19th, Stevenage (A) 24th, Crawley (H) 12th, Salford (H) 10th, Walsall (A) 14th, Mansfield (A) 21st, Cheltenham (H) 5th , Morecambe (A) 22nd, Orient (H) 17th, Macclesfield (A) 23rd avg position 16.7

Crewe have Mansfield (A) 21st, Colchester (A) 6th, FGR (H) 11th, Port Vale (A) 8th, Northampton (H) 7th, Newport (H) 15th , Bradford (A) 9th, Grimsby (H) 13th, Cambridge (A) 16th avg 11.77

Argyle have Morecambe (A) 22nd, Orient (A) 17th, Exeter (H) 4th, Grimsby (A) 13th, FGR (H) 11th, Walsall (A) 14th, Northampton (H) 7th, Oldham (A) 19th, Port Vale (H) 8th avg. 12.77

Exeter have Salford (H) 10th, Scunthorpe (H) 20th, Argyle (A) 3rd, Bradford (H) 9th, Cheltenham (A) 5th, Morecambe (H) 22nd, Mansfield (A) 21st, Carlisle (H) 18th, Orient (A) 17th avg. 13.88

Cheltenham have Cambridge (A) 16th, Macclesfield (A) 23rd, Grimsby (H) 13th, Newport (H) 15th, FGR (A) 11th, Exeter (H) 4th, Swindon (A) 2nd, Crawley (H) 12th, Stevenage (A) 24th, Salford (H)10th avg. 13.00

Colchester have Scunthorpe (H) 20th, Crewe (H) 1st, Newport (A) 15th, Mansfield (H) 21st, Bradford (A) 9th, Northampton (A) 7th, Oldham (H) 19th, Walsall (A) 14th, FGR (H) 11th. avg. 13.00

Northampton have FGR (A) 11th, Carlisle (H) 18th, Cambridge (A) 16th, Oldham (H) 19th, Crewe (A) 1st, Colchester (H) 6th, Argyle (A) 3rd, Bradford (H) 9th, Newport (A) 15th avg. 10.88

If you look at the average position of the teams that the top 7 teams have to play it is obvious that Swindon has the easiest run in and that Northampton has the hardest

Willis88 · Mar 10, 2020

Do you remember those relatively easy games we had against relegated Dagenham & Redbridge and Leyton Orient, and that easy final game against Grimsby?

One thing being an Argyle fan has told me, don't rest on any laurels no matter how tempting it it.

demportdave · Mar 10, 2020

We need 5 wins, 3 draws and just the 1 defeat from our last 9 games to reach 86 points which would virtually guarantee automatic promotion.

I think the away games will be key for us as they are all ‘winnable’, unlike the remaining home games which could be described as tricky/tough, as all 4 home games are against teams who are still scrambling to be in the promotion shake up.

Playing away from home might be better for us as long as teams are prepared to come out and play and if that is the case, we are clearly better than each of the 5 sides we have to face away from home. Grimsby is likely to be the most difficult away game but the other teams are all lower half without much to play for.

However, it will be key to not concede the first goal in the away games as this then allows the opposition to sit 10 men behind the ball, as Cambridge did to us back in December.

Ave IT · Mar 11, 2020

This 'soccer stats' web site analyses the run in in terms of the average 'points per game' (PPG) of the remaining opponents each team faces factoring in home or away. The lower the average PPG of the teams left to play theoretically the easier the run-in. Using that stat - Swindon have the easiest, then Cheltenham, us & Exeter much the same but Crewe significantly the most difficult. If you hover over each PPG figure it gives the details.

https://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?l ... nd4&tid=10

davie nine · Mar 11, 2020

demportdave":999cf9dr said:
We need 5 wins, 3 draws and just the 1 defeat from our last 9 games to reach 86 points which would virtually guarantee automatic promotion.

I think the away games will be key for us as they are all ‘winnable’, unlike the remaining home games which could be described as tricky/tough, as all 4 home games are against teams who are still scrambling to be in the promotion shake up.

Playing away from home might be better for us as long as teams are prepared to come out and play and if that is the case, we are clearly better than each of the 5 sides we have to face away from home. Grimsby is likely to be the most difficult away game but the other teams are all lower half without much to play for.

However, it will be key to not concede the first goal in the away games as this then allows the opposition to sit 10 men behind the ball, as Cambridge did to us back in December.

Agree with all that but Cambridge was much more recent (22nd February).

Furnell · Mar 11, 2020

I think also that the four home games against teams challenging for either the top 3 or play offs may help us. As long as we are above them, they need to beat us to make up ground.

A draw won’t be enough for them. I’m sure they will still be cagey but less likely to ‘do a Cambridge.’

Andy S · Mar 11, 2020

davie nine":1g1jl7dp said:
demportdave":1g1jl7dp said:

We need 5 wins, 3 draws and just the 1 defeat from our last 9 games to reach 86 points which would virtually guarantee automatic promotion.

I think the away games will be key for us as they are all ‘winnable’, unlike the remaining home games which could be described as tricky/tough, as all 4 home games are against teams who are still scrambling to be in the promotion shake up.

Playing away from home might be better for us as long as teams are prepared to come out and play and if that is the case, we are clearly better than each of the 5 sides we have to face away from home. Grimsby is likely to be the most difficult away game but the other teams are all lower half without much to play for.

However, it will be key to not concede the first goal in the away games as this then allows the opposition to sit 10 men behind the ball, as Cambridge did to us back in December.

Click to expand...

Agree with all that but Cambridge was much more recent (22nd February).

On Dec. 7th, they beat us 1 - 0. They scored in the first 20 minutes and parked the bus!

davie nine · Mar 11, 2020

Andy_S":xdkrdg1k said:
davie nine":xdkrdg1k said:

demportdave":xdkrdg1k said:

We need 5 wins, 3 draws and just the 1 defeat from our last 9 games to reach 86 points which would virtually guarantee automatic promotion.

I think the away games will be key for us as they are all ‘winnable’, unlike the remaining home games which could be described as tricky/tough, as all 4 home games are against teams who are still scrambling to be in the promotion shake up.

Playing away from home might be better for us as long as teams are prepared to come out and play and if that is the case, we are clearly better than each of the 5 sides we have to face away from home. Grimsby is likely to be the most difficult away game but the other teams are all lower half without much to play for.

However, it will be key to not concede the first goal in the away games as this then allows the opposition to sit 10 men behind the ball, as Cambridge did to us back in December.

Click to expand...

Agree with all that but Cambridge was much more recent (22nd February).

Click to expand...

On Dec. 7th, they beat us 1 - 0. They scored in the first 20 minutes and parked the bus!

Fair enough. That’s 160+ minutes that their bus was ‘parked’.

justanotherfan · Mar 11, 2020

davie nine":1elgve1q said:
Andy_S":1elgve1q said:

davie nine":1elgve1q said:

demportdave":1elgve1q said:

We need 5 wins, 3 draws and just the 1 defeat from our last 9 games to reach 86 points which would virtually guarantee automatic promotion.

I think the away games will be key for us as they are all ‘winnable’, unlike the remaining home games which could be described as tricky/tough, as all 4 home games are against teams who are still scrambling to be in the promotion shake up.

Playing away from home might be better for us as long as teams are prepared to come out and play and if that is the case, we are clearly better than each of the 5 sides we have to face away from home. Grimsby is likely to be the most difficult away game but the other teams are all lower half without much to play for.

However, it will be key to not concede the first goal in the away games as this then allows the opposition to sit 10 men behind the ball, as Cambridge did to us back in December.

Click to expand...

Agree with all that but Cambridge was much more recent (22nd February).

Click to expand...

On Dec. 7th, they beat us 1 - 0. They scored in the first 20 minutes and parked the bus!

Click to expand...

Fair enough. That’s 160+ minutes that their bus was ‘parked’.

The relevant passage is the one in bold.

Adam R · Mar 11, 2020

Week-by-week it depends who still have something to play for.

It may not necessarily be the current league position that defines the difficulty of the run in, but also the time that you play each team. Macclesfield for the next few weeks may be pumped up to pull away from Stevenage, once they're safe they may experiment with team/tactics or lose some intensity and become a weaker opposition - whilst still being 23rd for calculation purposes.

At present, Cambridge (16th) down to Mansfield (21st) are probably the only teams with nothing to play for. If Stevenage don't pick up some points in the next few games two (22nd and 23rd) more teams will be added to that list. Those aiming for the playoffs will soon fall away too.

davie nine · Mar 11, 2020

justanotherfan":2g5u6io2 said:
davie nine":2g5u6io2 said:

Andy_S":2g5u6io2 said:

davie nine":2g5u6io2 said:

demportdave":2g5u6io2 said:

We need 5 wins, 3 draws and just the 1 defeat from our last 9 games to reach 86 points which would virtually guarantee automatic promotion.

I think the away games will be key for us as they are all ‘winnable’, unlike the remaining home games which could be described as tricky/tough, as all 4 home games are against teams who are still scrambling to be in the promotion shake up.

Playing away from home might be better for us as long as teams are prepared to come out and play and if that is the case, we are clearly better than each of the 5 sides we have to face away from home. Grimsby is likely to be the most difficult away game but the other teams are all lower half without much to play for.

However, it will be key to not concede the first goal in the away games as this then allows the opposition to sit 10 men behind the ball, as Cambridge did to us back in December.

Click to expand...

Agree with all that but Cambridge was much more recent (22nd February).

Click to expand...

On Dec. 7th, they beat us 1 - 0. They scored in the first 20 minutes and parked the bus!

Click to expand...

Fair enough. That’s 160+ minutes that their bus was ‘parked’.

Click to expand...

The relevant passage is the one in bold.

My relevant response was ‘fair enough’.

Balham Green · Mar 11, 2020

mikegreen'smoustache":epzmyy7s said:
I think also that the four home games against teams challenging for either the top 3 or play offs may help us. As long as we are above them, they need to beat us to make up ground.

A draw won’t be enough for them. I’m sure they will still be cagey but less likely to ‘do a Cambridge.’

Northampton and Port Vale know they have minimal chance of catching us. Will take a point.

djg145 · Mar 11, 2020

Ottawa Green":2pe2mwu6 said:
Currently With the positions in the league

Swindon have Oldham (A) 19th, Stevenage (A) 24th, Crawley (H) 12th, Salford (H) 10th, Walsall (A) 14th, Mansfield (A) 21st, Cheltenham (H) 5th , Morecambe (A) 22nd, Orient (H) 17th, Macclesfield (A) 23rd avg position 16.7

Crewe have Mansfield (A) 21st, Colchester (A) 6th, FGR (H) 11th, Port Vale (A) 8th, Northampton (H) 7th, Newport (H) 15th , Bradford (A) 9th, Grimsby (H) 13th, Cambridge (A) 16th avg 11.77

Argyle have Morecambe (A) 22nd, Orient (A) 17th, Exeter (H) 4th, Grimsby (A) 13th, FGR (H) 11th, Walsall (A) 14th, Northampton (H) 7th, Oldham (A) 19th, Port Vale (H) 8th avg. 12.77

Exeter have Salford (H) 10th, Scunthorpe (H) 20th, Argyle (A) 3rd, Bradford (H) 9th, Cheltenham (A) 5th, Morecambe (H) 22nd, Mansfield (A) 21st, Carlisle (H) 18th, Orient (A) 17th avg. 13.88

Cheltenham have Cambridge (A) 16th, Macclesfield (A) 23rd, Grimsby (H) 13th, Newport (H) 15th, FGR (A) 11th, Exeter (H) 4th, Swindon (A) 2nd, Crawley (H) 12th, Stevenage (A) 24th, Salford (H)10th avg. 13.00

Colchester have Scunthorpe (H) 20th, Crewe (H) 1st, Newport (A) 15th, Mansfield (H) 21st, Bradford (A) 9th, Northampton (A) 7th, Oldham (H) 19th, Walsall (A) 14th, FGR (H) 11th. avg. 13.00

Northampton have FGR (A) 11th, Carlisle (H) 18th, Cambridge (A) 16th, Oldham (H) 19th, Crewe (A) 1st, Colchester (H) 6th, Argyle (A) 3rd, Bradford (H) 9th, Newport (A) 15th avg. 10.88

If you look at the average position of the teams that the top 7 teams have to play it is obvious that Swindon has the easiest run in and that Northampton has the hardest

NO games will be EASY.

Let's HOPE that we are allowed to play these games!! :scarf:

The Final Countdown

Andy S

Administrator

Ottawa Green

Site Admin

Willis88

demportdave

Ave IT

davie nine

Furnell

Andy S

Administrator

davie nine

justanotherfan

Adam R

davie nine

Balham Green

djg145