Devongreenowl wrote:Willis88 wrote:Devongreenowl wrote:Willis88 wrote:Devongreenowl wrote: Surely the most accurate data is from those seldom publicised random tests where a cross section of the population are tested. Obviously, when people actually come forward to test centres, it’s generally because they suspect they are infected, so of course there will be a higher percentage of positives.
At the beginning of the summer, we had all sorts of Armageddon forecasts for the south west due to an onslaught of visitors. Despite hundreds of thousands of them, if not millions, have we seen a huge rise in our local stats? Answer - no. What does that tell us. Perhaps that outdoor activities are relatively safe, as the scientists have said all along.
We still have the lowest infection rates in the country. Even government supporters are saying these panic measures are simply the wrong reaction, creating even more fear. Meanwhile, people continue to die of other untreated illnesses and our national psyche is damaged, perhaps forever.
Funnily enough I was watching the numbers down here (helped pass a few mins a week).
Late June to mid-July we had a mere handful of cases (less than 5 a day across the whole SW), then came tourist season and that went up to around 20 a day.
The government also supply a map on their website showing the parish of the infected person. The first cases in the wave we had down here came in tourist areas (Torbay, Exmouth, Beer, stretches of the Cornish coast).
I would argue that the tourism opening up did create an influx down here and would have been substantially worse if social distancing wouldn't have been enforced.
I agree it's not armageddon, but it does show, if everyone just stayed local for a year it would probably be long gone by now.
Yes, but by the same token, the number of tests by say August had substantially increased so you would expect to see a rise in numbers over the figures for June for instance. At the beginning of June, we had done 60,000 tests per million population. We have now done 284,000 per million and are testing about half a million people a week according to UK Gov stats.
Yeah and obviously the more you test the more you find. But testing alone isn't the reason we've gone from basically no cases to 20+ a day.
It's a bit of a silly position to just blame the tests for the cases. The most dangerous position I've seen come up recently is people blaming false positives on the rise.
The virus has re-emerged down here due to tourists bringing it with them and people bringing it home from their holidays, not the increase in testing and not false positives.
I’m not saying that’s all it’s down to. Obviously, lifting of lockdown was always going to see a rise in rates. It’s still hard to argue with the fact that the south west has the lowest rate in the country despite its population probably doubling over the summer. Plymouth actually had less cases last week than the week before.
Don't rule out the chance that despite an influx of visitors, the rate might be lower because they went home before displaying symptoms and the locals practiced safe distancing by adhering to the guidelines and for the majority, avoided the tourists (like the plague) where possible.