How to guarantee that you'll lose in the playoffs | PASOTI
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How to guarantee that you'll lose in the playoffs

Apr 20, 2008
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The end of season playoffs, whilst often deemed a lottery, are often associated with teams failing due to "running out of steam after a long season", or "legs have gone". Certainly, after a punishing 50-odd game season, having to get through 2/3 more, especially when the stakes are so high and the rewards for winning are so great, must be extremely tough. It must be a fitness coach's nightmare. So, you'd want the players to be as fresh as possible.

The EFL Trophy has, as we know, come in for a lot of stick since its revamp in 2016. We've now had 4 seasons of it, and the argument between boycotting for moral reasons and attending to support the team rumbles on. My stance has always been one of hoping that we get knocked out as soon as possible, and here's why. Since 2016/17, let's take a look at the teams that have made the EFL playoffs who also made at least the semi final of the EFL Trophy:

2016/17 - Luton
2017/18 - Shrewsbury
2017/18 - Lincoln
2018/19 - Portsmouth
2018/19 - Sunderland
2019/20 - Exeter
2019/20 - Portsmouth

Spot the trend?

They all lost in the playoffs. 4 of them in the semi finals, too. Maybe they were tactically outclassed, maybe they were unlucky. Or maybe, just maybe, if they'd been a little fresher having played a few fewer games earlier in the season...

It's not impossible to have a successful season in the league as well as doing well in the Trophy, granted. But it's all about probability. In the 4 seasons since its induction, of the 28 teams promoted from Leagues 1 and 2, an incredible 27 of them have been knocked out of the Trophy earlier than the quarter final stage. The one exception: Ryan Lowe's Bury. So it's not impossible - but highly improbable.

In conclusion - I want Plymouth Argyle to continue to get knocked out in the group stage as we have been doing so admirably in the past 4 seasons. And as the above shows, if we abandon that approach and start taking the Trophy seriously, it reduces the chances of us getting promoted - especially via the playoffs. If it had been us rather than Exeter that made it all the way to the semi finals of the Trophy this season, that might have made the tiny bit of difference between 3rd and 4th. We might have been watching Argyle getting pumped by Northampton in the playoffs, and contemplating another season in League 2.

Keep up the boycott. Wanting Argyle to lose in the Trophy does not make you any less of a fan.
 

Mark Pedlar

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Wearing stripes would appear ro be a good indicator.
 
Jun 27, 2019
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Mark Pedlar":36wh7kiv said:
Wearing stripes would appear ro be a good indicator.

Both of Argyle's unsuccessful play-off campaigns came when we had striped kits...

Correction: all three of our unsuccessful play-off campaigns was a striped year! I was forgetting the Wycombe debacle.

In fact, the year we lost to Burnley we actually ditched our kit in between legs, but went from one striped kit to another :facepalm:
 

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WoodsyGreen":2xw0hlhm said:
Mark Pedlar":2xw0hlhm said:
Wearing stripes would appear ro be a good indicator.

Both of Argyle's unsuccessful play-off campaigns came when we had striped kits...

Zackly
 
Jul 14, 2008
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This is a really interesting analysis, much more interesting than reading all the petty arguments on here.
I hope they get rid of the EFL trophy, both because of the moral stand point of playing u21 sides (which I think is a bit of an insult), and because 50 games a season across the three main competitions is plenty which your data confirms. Also the trophy has no real status to it. I know there have been some big attendances for the final at Wembley but Iā€™m not sure Iā€™d even bother going if we got to the final.

The fact that the season will be squeezed into a shorter timeframe this season would provide a good excuse for scrapping it. I know there is reasonable prize money attached to it but not enough to risk potential promotion to the championship. Crowds for that tournament would also likely to be even less this year with fans having to payout for league games over a shorter period too.
 
Feb 21, 2012
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I think that this year is a good reason to scrap the play offs altogether. It was brought in to balance the leagues,and it was then realised that it can make more money,which is good for lower league teams,but when some teams that finish seventh, several points behind the final automatic promotion spot,and get promoted,it truly shows that it is a lottery. If a team cannot finish in the top three,then I think that they do not deserve to be promoted,and that includes Argyle.
 
Jul 14, 2008
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Thatā€™s a fair point and has always been a criticism of the play off system. But the main counter to that is that it keeps the season alive for many teams who would otherwise have nothing to play for. How much motivation would fans have to attend games if their clubs season was effectively over by the end of January with no danger of either relegation or a top three finish.
 

The Doctor

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Herts_Green":lxlrki9f said:
Thatā€™s a fair point and has always been a criticism of the play off system. But the main counter to that is that it keeps the season alive for many teams who would otherwise have nothing to play for. How much motivation would fans have to attend games if their clubs season was effectively over by the end of January with no danger of either relegation or a top three finish.

Smaller leagues with a similar number of promotion and relegation places as now would keep things alive. For instance, instead of 24 teams in League 1 you could have 12 teams each in Leagues 1A and 1B (1A being higher than 1B). In the first half of the full season each team plays each other team in its league home and away (so 22 games) with 4 teams going up, 4 teams staying put and 4 teams going down. Then, in the second half of the season with the leagues reformed from the 4 stay put teams, the 4 relegated teams coming down and the 4 promoted teams coming up, each team plays each other team home and away (so another 22 games) with the same 4 up 4 down format. This would mean that a team could be promoted twice, relegated twice, promoted once, relegated once, promoted then relegated back to their starting league, relegated then promoted back to their starting league or, if they were really, really, REALLY boring, stay exactly where they started.

You could allow transfers only in the gaps before and between seasons.

Personally, I think this is an absolutely genius idea with all kinds of benefits not described here - but then I had the idea so I would think that!.
 

Lundan Cabbie

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rongreenblood":1ebi5ij2 said:
I think that this year is a good reason to scrap the play offs altogether. It was brought in to balance the leagues,and it was then realised that it can make more money,which is good for lower league teams,but when some teams that finish seventh, several points behind the final automatic promotion spot,and get promoted,it truly shows that it is a lottery. If a team cannot finish in the top three,then I think that they do not deserve to be promoted,and that includes Argyle.

For most of the Football League's existence, promotion was only given to the top two (or one in Div 3 N&S) so third place meant no promotion. That extra automatic promotion spot was only around for 13 seasons and was dropped in favour of play-offs because it made little difference in maintaining interest in the final run-ins.

If a club now finish in third place in the Championship or League One, rather than missing out on promotion altogether, they get a bonus opportunity via the play-offs.
 

Lousy Pint

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Have to agree with the OP, a complete waste of time and resources. Especially as the EFL clubs have to stick to the majority of first choice players.
I'd be more than happy to see the competition scrapped.
What worries me is, if the forecasts of many clubs going bust post virus is correct, the EPL will still get the chance to get their U21 or B teams into the leagues.
Whilst this happens a lot on the continent, it just doesn't sit right with me.
I wish all current clubs success in pulling through this horrendous period.
 
Apr 20, 2008
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Dan Ellard":1n1edy4r said:
The end of season playoffs, whilst often deemed a lottery, are often associated with teams failing due to "running out of steam after a long season", or "legs have gone". Certainly, after a punishing 50-odd game season, having to get through 2/3 more, especially when the stakes are so high and the rewards for winning are so great, must be extremely tough. It must be a fitness coach's nightmare. So, you'd want the players to be as fresh as possible.

The EFL Trophy has, as we know, come in for a lot of stick since its revamp in 2016. We've now had 4 seasons of it, and the argument between boycotting for moral reasons and attending to support the team rumbles on. My stance has always been one of hoping that we get knocked out as soon as possible, and here's why. Since 2016/17, let's take a look at the teams that have made the EFL playoffs who also made at least the semi final of the EFL Trophy:

2016/17 - Luton
2017/18 - Shrewsbury
2017/18 - Lincoln
2018/19 - Portsmouth
2018/19 - Sunderland
2019/20 - Exeter
2019/20 - Portsmouth

Spot the trend?

They all lost in the playoffs. 4 of them in the semi finals, too. Maybe they were tactically outclassed, maybe they were unlucky. Or maybe, just maybe, if they'd been a little fresher having played a few fewer games earlier in the season...

It's not impossible to have a successful season in the league as well as doing well in the Trophy, granted. But it's all about probability. In the 4 seasons since its induction, of the 28 teams promoted from Leagues 1 and 2, an incredible 27 of them have been knocked out of the Trophy earlier than the quarter final stage. The one exception: Ryan Lowe's Bury. So it's not impossible - but highly improbable.

In conclusion - I want Plymouth Argyle to continue to get knocked out in the group stage as we have been doing so admirably in the past 4 seasons. And as the above shows, if we abandon that approach and start taking the Trophy seriously, it reduces the chances of us getting promoted - especially via the playoffs. If it had been us rather than Exeter that made it all the way to the semi finals of the Trophy this season, that might have made the tiny bit of difference between 3rd and 4th. We might have been watching Argyle getting pumped by Northampton in the playoffs, and contemplating another season in League 2.

Keep up the boycott. Wanting Argyle to lose in the Trophy does not make you any less of a fan.
Bump.

I won't bump this every year (promise), but thought it was worth bringing up again, given that the 4 semi finalists for this season's trophy were Lincoln, Sunderland, Tranmere and Oxford - and every single one of them lost in the playoffs.

So in the 5 years since it was revamped, 11 teams have made the semi finals of the trophy and then also made the playoffs. 11 out of 11 have not gone up - 7 not even reaching the final.

Playoffs would be astonishing progress for Argyle next year of course, but it'd be good start to get knocked out from the trophy as early as possible once again. Keep boycotting, folks.
 
Mar 14, 2009
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What makes team win a playoff is momentum.

Look at Brentford last season results before the playoffs. No coincidence they struggled to go up but this season they took their better form into the playoffs.

Argyle have been in playoffs where their league form was patchy. No surprise in the season we lost to AFC Wimbledon we produced a good performance against Portsmouth but a terrible one in the final. It was a microcosm of the consistency of our performance levels for that season.

Look at Blackpool since the turn of the year. They have been getting better and better.

Itā€™s like Chelsea in the champions league. I watched that game last night. I thought of the millions spent on both sides. One side played counter attack with 8 behind the ball. Well organised though. The other side tried to play football but had no creativity to open up a side who played park the bus.

It was a disappointing final. Yet Chelsea won because of being well drilled and Pepā€™s inexcusable tactics playing into the strength of the opposition.

Chelsea also carried the momentum in those games against Man City. And once City played into Chelsea hands it was game over.

Momentum and performances are a huge thing. Look at Utd against Villarreal. Utdā€™s league form disappeared. So in the biggest game of the season they played like their previous performances

Itā€™s no coincidence that if you watched Argyle the past five years you see with Adams and Lowe a lack of good performances strung together. So because of this you get the bad runs.

It doesnā€™t matter where we play with stripes, hoops or diamond shirts. It doesnā€™t (normally) matter where you finish in the league playoffs. What matters is the form and performances you take into the play offs. Sunderlandā€™s form dipped before the playoffs this season. It wasnā€™t until they played us they won a game for a while. Itā€™s therefore no surprise they never went up.

Consistency. And that little bit of Lady Luck. You not going to play well every game. Yet if you do for 6 out of 10 games and be hard to beat in the others then you have a promotion formula. Sturrockā€™s team is an great example. I can remember some beautiful performances like 5-1 away to Port Vale. Yet mostly it was about grinding out wins. Wotton putting fantastic corner consistency that eventually reap the rewards.

I do think we have forgotten some of the great things in our coaching, like the importance of set piece delivery, that made lower league football so intriguing. You think how little impact we made from all the attacking set pieces we had. Suddenly you improve in this area you change the shape of a game.

If you do things right, a good number of times, you become a good team. Blackpool did a number of good things right which meant when they went behind today they knew how to get back into the game. No surprise when Argyle went behind we struggle because of the lack of quality in our play. We had no width. The forwards didnā€™t get the supply they needed which is why l wouldnā€™t be too harsh on Jephcott. Our repetitive play was repeating bad decision after bad decision and not having the quality in the final third to change this momentum.
 

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Kentishgreen":24m7ivom said:
Forgetting to dive at any and every opportunity also a reason for losing in the playoffs.
Didn't apply to Lincoln today!
 

Mark58

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Kentishgreen":2lpu9n43 said:
Forgetting to dive at any and every opportunity also a reason for losing in the playoffs.

:lol:

(P.S. Can't wait for the four games against Lincoln AND Wycombe next season...)