Latest version after Easter Monday fixtures...

To paraphrase T.S Eliot... This is the way the season ends, this is the way the season ends. Not with a bang, but with a whimper..."



It will probably take two or three more games before we are safe.

[Ottawa Green]

Code: Select all

Pos    Team              P         GD        Pts    Max   Highest  lowest

1    Hull City          41         39        79      94     1        9                  SAFE
2    Peterborough       40         32        76      96     1       10                  SAFE
 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3    Sunderland         39         29        71      92     1       14                  SAFE
4    Blackpool          38         17        64      88     1       19                  SAFE
5    Portsmouth         39         15        64      85     1       19                  SAFE
4    Lincoln            38         15        63      87     1       19                  SAFE


------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7    Charlton           39          6        62      83     1       19                  SAFE
8    Ipswich            39          3        60      81     1       20                  SAFE
9    Oxford             40         11        59      77     2       20                  SAFE
10   Gillingham         41          2        59      74     3       20                  SAFE
11   Doncaster          38          3        57      81     1       20                  SAFE
12   Accrington         39         -5        57      78     2       20                  SAFE
13   Fleetwood          40         10        56      74     3       21
14   M.K. Dons          40          1        56      74     3       21
15   Crewe              39         -7        54      75     3       23
16   Argyle             41        -16        52      67     4       24
17   Shrewsbury         38          1        50      74     3       24
18   Burton             39        -13        48      69     4       24
19   Northampton        41        -24        40      55    15       24
20   Wimbledon          39        -21        39      60     8       24

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21   Wigan              40        -24        38      56    13       24
22   Bristol R..        41        -24        38      53    16       24
23   Swindon            40        -27        37      55    15       24
24   Rochdale           39        -23        33      54    15       24

I've been playing with the numbers and this is how it looks for us:

As Rochdale and Swindon play next week only one of them can overtake us. Therefore can't finish last!

Assuming Swindon win they would also need to beat Portsmouth, Wigan and Wimbledon to be able to catch us. If they beat Wigan, Wigan will need to win all of theirs to overtake us. Wigan still have to play Sunderland and Hull, I can't see them getting above us.

If Rochdale win they still need to defeat Blackpool along with winning all their other games to have a chance of catching us.

I'd say with the above statements we can rule out 23rd and probably 22nd (Wigan, Swindon and Rochdale in 22nd - 24th).

If Rovers don't win all of their games they can't overtake us (they have 3 of the 4 playoff teams to play yet so seems very unlikely), therefore I'd predict no chance of 21st.

Whilst we can definitely now not come last I can't see us being relegated looking at the fixtures of Wigan, Swindon, Rovers and Rochdale.

That's before even considering Northampton, who need to win all but 1 game and they've got Peterborough, Ipswich and Blackpool to play yet.

So building on Doc's statement "It will probably take two or three more games before we are safe", I recon we're there already.

[Ottawa Green]

Willis what you say is probably true, but my table does not look at what if's, future games, match ups etc. it is based on what is now, it's just a bit of fun.

yeah I know, was just adding another layer to what you and Doc prepare. Wasn't meant as a critism and I know there's not enough time in the day to predict and analyse all the outcomes. I only added what I did as I was looking at it this morning out of curiosity.

yeah I know, was just adding another layer to what you and Doc prepare. Wasn't meant as a critism and I know there's not enough time in the day to predict and analyse all the outcomes. I only added what I did as I was looking at it this morning out of curiosity.

I was thinking of doing the same kind of analysis that you did so it’s good you’ve done it! I agree that we are almost certainly safe already but I think it will be 2-3 games before it is mathematically impossible for us to be relegated. The fight between the bottom six for the four relegation spots is really quite something and it’s possible that it will go to the last game with all six still in danger.

Yup, probably safe but stranger things have happened. On current form, can't see us getting more than 1 point from last five games. Really disappointing end to the season in prospect which will affect our recruitment ability for next year.

It'll certainly affect the sales of season tickets.

It's a shame, we started off so well, we were all dead chuffed at our performances and then this strange team turned up a few months ago.

Like others, I'm very pleased as to where we are but I for one was so excited by what I was witnessing at the start of the season, but now I see players I raved about then not being bothered now. Why?

Looking at matches tonight, if Wigan lose to Sunderland, then Swindon and Rochdale draw their match, that would leave us only needing 1pt, assuming that they could make up a swing in goal difference (having been at that debacle at Accrington, I take nothing for granted on that front!)

I have no idea about season ticket sales. I think the more reluctant to renew will be those who had a season ticket this year but weren't in the first 2000 to buy/renew so got to see no live action. I think we're all hopeful that there will be more scope to watch live matches next season and whilst I'm champing at the bit to be present at some live sport, I'm taking nothing for granted. Having seen 3 Knaresborough Town games this year and 10 minutes of an abandoned match at Harrogate Town, that's my lowest amount of live football since the early 90s when my Saturdays were spent playing football for Torpoint Youth rather than at Home Park.

M

It'll certainly affect the sales of season tickets.

It's a shame, we started off so well, we were all dead chuffed at our performances and then this strange team turned up a few months ago.

Like others, I'm very pleased as to where we are but I for one was so excited by what I was witnessing at the start of the season, but now I see players I raved about then not being bothered now. Why?

Assuming its not a rhetorical question...I think its because of the manager. I think that a lot of the players don't take Lowe seriously. His actions don't match his words, he's created a divide between the players and staff, he makes stipulations for players and yet doesn't abide by them himself, it seems like he's too familiar with the players and familiarity tends to breed contempt and it wouldn't surprise me if he treats some players more favourably and is thereby forming a little clique.

The recent Danny Mayor interview was a bit odd as far as I'm concerned. We don't hear from Mayor at all this season and yet when we are at our lowest and the manager is calling out the players for the bad performances up pops Danny with his comments about Lowe being the best manager he's played for and praising Lowes man management

Something is not right at Home Park and I think there is going to be a mass exodus at the end of this season with a whole new batch of players coming in which doesn't bode well for a successful 21/22.

After Tuesday 13th April fixtures...



Disregarding goal difference we need a three point swing to get Rochdale, Swindon and Bristol Rovers out of reach and a four point swing to do the same for Northampton. In other words, regardless of what Argyle do, one more defeat for each of the first three teams sees Argyle and two more defeats or draws for Northampton sees us safe.

The bottom four's remaining fixtures are:

Northampton: Peterborough (A), Ipswich (H), Gillingham (A), Blackpool (H), Sunderland (A)
Bristol Rovers: Lincoln (H), MK Dons (H), Portsmouth (A), Crewe (H), Blackpool (A)
Swindon: Wimbledon (A), Portsmouth (H), MK Dons (A), Ipswich (H), Wigan (A)
Rochdale: Accrington Stanley (H), Blackpool (H), Crewe (A), Wimbledon (A), Doncaster (H), MK Dons (A)

Wigan and Wimbledon are also in the relegation mix but they are better placed than the other four.

At the top, Hull and Peterborough seem to be in good form so I think they will both go up automatically. There is a nice little battle for at least a couple of the play-off places emerging and there's a reasonable chance that Portsmouth will miss out right at the end which would be quite funny.

Assuming its not a rhetorical question...I think its because of the manager. I think that a lot of the players don't take Lowe seriously. His actions don't match his words, he's created a divide between the players and staff, he makes stipulations for players and yet doesn't abide by them himself, it seems like he's too familiar with the players and familiarity tends to breed contempt and it wouldn't surprise me if he treats some players more favourably and is thereby forming a little clique.

The recent Danny Mayor interview was a bit odd as far as I'm concerned. We don't hear from Mayor at all this season and yet when we are at our lowest and the manager is calling out the players for the bad performances up pops Danny with his comments about Lowe being the best manager he's played for and praising Lowes man management

Something is not right at Home Park and I think there is going to be a mass exodus at the end of this season with a whole new batch of players coming in which doesn't bode well for a successful 21/22.

I hesitate to post this here as this particular thread isn't really intended as a place where there is much debate about such things but there is so much supposition in this post. You can think anything you like but it is there actually any evidence to support your thinking?

How do you know players don't take Lowe seriously?
How do you know he has created a divide between players and staff?
Does he really treat some players favourably?
Is a little clique forming?
What is not right at Home Park?