Out of all the teams in the bottom 13 we have the most difficult run in of everyone.
Scunthorpe, Wycombe, Gillingham and Wimbledon all face pretty easy run ins with teams which are generally in the bottom half of the table. Getting the points to stay up should be much easier for them. Wimbledon have of course drifted but they could well come back with the easier run in - apart from Luton all their other matches are in the lower half of the table and their form has been improved of late. Wycombe have had a terrible set of results so they could drift down even against lower opposition but somehow I cant see it.
Scunthorpe 126 - av position of opposition 16th
Wycombe 124 - av position of opposition 15th
Gillingham 121 - av position of opposition 15th
Wimbledon 119 - av position of opposition 15th
Even Stanley, Southend, Shrewsbury and Walsall have a bias towards bottom half teams so they have better than average run ins.
Stanley 113 - av position of opposition 11th but two games in hand
Southend 108- av position of opposition 13th
Shrewsbury 106 - av position of opposition 13th
Walsall 104 - av position of opposition 13th
Then Oxford, Bradford and Rochdale all have average run ins with teams from the top and bottom of the division. Rochdale and Bradford don't have the points which will work against them.
Oxford 93 - - av position of opposition 11th
Bradford 92 - av position of opposition 11th
Rochdale 90 - av position of opposition 11th
It is only Rovers and Argyle who you could say have a bias towards hard teams. Rovers more so but they have an extra game in hand
Rovers 85 - - av position of opposition 9th but 1 more game in hand
Argyle 83 - - av position of opposition 10th
Taking all this together and the points difference it would be a good judgement to say Rovers and Argyle could be over valued to stay up and should be in the relegation mix in May despite their recent form. A result on Saturday for either team could well be the decider - a draw is probably not enough as they will both need to get points in the bag before a nightmare run of fixtures in April. We are playing Barnsley looking to seal their automatic promotion place in a tight race over Sunderland, and also Charlton and Doncaster who will be fighting for a play off place. Rovers have to face Luton, Barnsley, Doncaster and Coventry.
Bradford and Rochdale are both doomed I think while Stanley, Scunthorpe, Wycombe and Gillingham are pretty much ok. I still think Southend, Shrewsbury and Walsall have substantially easier run ins so if I was one of their fans I would not be worried
Oxford could be in the mix as they have to face Luton, Coventry, Charlton and Doncaster .
So for me its:
Two from Argyle, Rovers or Oxford - with perhaps it being decided on Saturday as outside of that those teams don't face each other again so its a massive six pointer. With four very difficult games to follow you would want to be at least 6 points clear of the relegation zone going into April.
Then
Bradford - doomed
Rochdale - doomed
A quick eye on the betting: Bet against Wimbledon to go down - they are heavy favourites to do that atm and don't justify it. Argyle, Oxford and Rovers are all near 7-1 so bet on all three. One of them will almost certainly go down.