Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear... things turned out almost as badly as the worse case scenario I posted on Friday with wins for Millwall, QPR, Stoke and Sheffield Wednesday and a draw between Huddersfield and Birmingham. That point for Birmingham means that a draw in their final fixture against Norwich could be enough for them to overtake us if we lose by a 5 goal margin...
At the top it is a battle between Ipswich and Leeds for the final automatic promotion spot and as Ipswich have a game in hand (away at Coventry on Tuesday) and a home game against Huddersfield, and Leeds, with a +7 goal difference advantage, just have a home game against the (recently imploded) Southampton, it really could go either way. But if Ipswich can take anything back to Suffolk from the Ricoh Arena then they surely will be big favorites.
The only question remaining for the play-offs, apart from whether these involve Ipswich or Leeds and the exact finishing order, is which two of Norwich, West Brom and Hull can grab the last two spots. To be in with a chance Hull have to win against Argyle but as they have the worst goal difference of those three teams they can only pip Norwich if the Canaries also lose at Birmingham and they overturn +7 goal difference, and they can only oust West Brom if the Baggies lose at home to Preston or draw, with Hull beating Argyle by an 11 goal margin. It will almost certainly be Norwich and West Brom in the play-offs, but there's a small chance that it will be Hull instead of West Brom.
At the bottom, Huddersfield are pretty much nailed on for relegation. To survive they would have to win, Birmingham would have to lose or draw and Argyle would have to lose
and there would have to be a huge swing in the goal differences. And with their last game being away at Ipswich who will definitely need at least a point to secure promotion it's really difficult to imagine that this will happen (even in this league of bonkers results).
That, of course, leaves the third relegation position up for grabs...
- Birmingham go down if they lose - quite likely
- We go down if we lose/draw and Birmingham win or if we lose by a 5 goal margin and Birmingham draw - not unlikely
- Blackburn go down if they lose, Birmingham win and we win - possible but unlikely
- Sheffield Wednesday go down if they lose, Birmingham win, we win and Blackburn don't lose by goal margin that is 10 goals worse than SW - possible but very unlikely
Looking at the fixtures, Blackburn are very likely to lose (at Leicester), Sheffield Wednesday are quite likely to win (at Sunderland), we are quite likely to lose (against Hull) and Birmingham are unlikely to win but could well draw (against Norwich). If so, then the key factor becomes the margin of any defeat that we suffer.
On balance, Birmingham are in the worst position and the most likely to go down but we are pretty close. I'd feel more comfortable if we had 2-3 more goals on our goal difference and if Norwich needed to win to secure a play-off place.
Anyway, whatever will be will be. In 137 hours time things will begin to find out how things unfold...
