How to guarantee that you'll lose in the playoffs

[rsp4]

How many times do you see the club with momentum win the play offs rather than those in and around the area all season.

Look at Blackpool. Mid Feb we were 10th and they were 14th 4 points behind behind us all be it with 3 games in hand which they had to cram in.

We had 41 points, they had 37 points.
End of may and look what's happened. We scraped across the line for safety and they are a championship side.

I would say momentum is key going into the playoffs not always about games played

 

[Pogleswoody]

How many times do you see the club with momentum win the play offs rather than those in and around the area all season.

Look at Blackpool. Mid Feb we were 10th and they were 14th 4 points behind behind us all be it with 3 games in hand which they had to cram in.

We had 41 points, they had 37 points.
End of may and look what's happened. We scraped across the line for safety and they are a championship side.

I would say momentum is key going into the playoffs not always about games played

Yes I'm sure there is a thread on here where someone said that Blackpool couldn't make it due to fixture congestion. a perfectly understandable analysis at the time but an indication of the 'funny old game'.

 

[Kentishgreen]

Off topic but didn’t Labour have momentum?

 

[Dan Ellard]

I did some further research into the theory around momentum. I took the latest 5 seasons (therefore 15 sets of playoffs across the 3 divisions) and calculated each participating team's points accrued across the final 5, 10 and 20 games of the regular league season, to see whether the team with the best form does normally end up on top. The results are as follows:

Final 5 games:
The team with the best form went up 27% of the time
The team with the 2nd best form went up 40% of the time
The team with the 3rd best form went up 20% of the time
The team with the worst form went up 13% of the time.

Final 10 games:
Best form went up 27%
2nd best form went up 20%
3rd best form went up 27%
Worst form went up 27%

Final 20 games:
Best form went up 47%
2nd best form went up 27%
3rd best form went up 13%
Worst form went up 13%

So, to conclude, it certainly looks like when taking basically the entire 2nd half of the season, teams in better form are more likely to go up, albeit still less than 50% of the time. However, when looking at more recent form, it makes absolutely no difference at all.

 

[philevs]

What brilliant observations Dan, there are clearly patterns about both the EFL Trophy and the second half of season form, thanks for pointing them out. Let’s hope the official club stats gurus also know about this!

 

[Knibbsworth]

Another way to guarantee you'll lose is to celebrate a goal in your old manager's face - even though it's only March.

 

[rsp4]

I did some further research into the theory around momentum. I took the latest 5 seasons (therefore 15 sets of playoffs across the 3 divisions) and calculated each participating team's points accrued across the final 5, 10 and 20 games of the regular league season, to see whether the team with the best form does normally end up on top. The results are as follows:

Final 5 games:
The team with the best form went up 27% of the time
The team with the 2nd best form went up 40% of the time
The team with the 3rd best form went up 20% of the time
The team with the worst form went up 13% of the time.

Final 10 games:
Best form went up 27%
2nd best form went up 20%
3rd best form went up 27%
Worst form went up 27%

Final 20 games:
Best form went up 47%
2nd best form went up 27%
3rd best form went up 13%
Worst form went up 13%

So, to conclude, it certainly looks like when taking basically the entire 2nd half of the season, teams in better form are more likely to go up, albeit still less than 50% of the time. However, when looking at more recent form, it makes absolutely no difference at all.

That's brilliant Dan cheers. I suppose the team on the best run are likely to be at the top of their he but it's funny how perception differs to reality.

Cheers mate nice bit of work :thumbup:

 

[JannerinCardiff]

Everyone is entitled to their opinion. I for one certainly won’t be boycotting a competition we have a chance to win and provide funds for strengthening the 1st team whilst giving competitive matches to pit while squad.

Like I said everyone is entitled to their own opinion, so i hope people respect mine.