I think I am right in recalling that last season (and perhaps the one before) and in the early part of this seasonArgyle significantly outperformed their Expected Goals statistcs. I think this applied to the team as a whole but also to Ryan Hardie and means that Argyle (and Hardie) were scoring more goals than would be expected on average from players at the same level from the same goalscoring positions. In other words, rather than seeing the current lack of goals as being some kind of drop off from what would be expected of a Championship level striker, it can be argued that all we are seeing now is a ‘normal’ level of finishing. The problem that Hardie has made for himself is that he was previously performing well above average and now people expect that to continue. Looking at his stats overall, he’s performed well and had a good, above-average in fact, goalscoring season.
(To take the Norwich game as an example, Argyle’s total expected goals stat was 1.12, so the team, as a whole, scored pretty much the number of goals that a team would be expected to score from the chances made. In contrast, Norwich’s xG stat was 1.86 so they also scored pretty much the ‘right’ number of goals from their chances. Basically, although some chances were missed by both sides, the overall level of finishing in that game ended up almost exactly as expected - 3 goals versus 2.98 expected goals)
(To take the Norwich game as an example, Argyle’s total expected goals stat was 1.12, so the team, as a whole, scored pretty much the number of goals that a team would be expected to score from the chances made. In contrast, Norwich’s xG stat was 1.86 so they also scored pretty much the ‘right’ number of goals from their chances. Basically, although some chances were missed by both sides, the overall level of finishing in that game ended up almost exactly as expected - 3 goals versus 2.98 expected goals)
