51 Points?

[samjones]

There were definitely signs of green shoots there on Saturday despite the 0 - 4 THRASHING.

The pitch looked lovely, really vibrant and green. Shame we cant say the same about the football

51 pts myar53 we might even struggle to get 15. What is the lowest to be relegated from League 1 ?o

#RELEGATIONISNAILEDON

I’ll give you £50 for every point under 25 you give me £25 for every point over. #HAVENTGOTASCOOBYDO

25 pts baseline wow you are obviously confident NOT. #YOUKNOWWEAREGOINGDOWNDONTYOU

 

[Ave IT]

There were definitely signs of green shoots there on Saturday despite the 0 - 4 THRASHING.

The pitch looked lovely, really vibrant and green. Shame we cant say the same about the football

51 pts myar53 we might even struggle to get 15. What is the lowest to be relegated from League 1 ?o

#RELEGATIONISNAILEDON

I’ll give you £50 for every point under 25 you give me £25 for every point over. #HAVENTGOTASCOOBYDO

25 pts baseline wow you are obviously confident NOT. #YOUKNOWWEAREGOINGDOWNDONTYOU

...or maybe he's just trying to fleece a numpty for as much as he possibly can? Just saying....

 

[Ave IT]

This thread started after the Shrewsbury game - the first sign we had turned a corner after a very good performance against the then lead leaders which followed our lowest ebb against Fleetwood. The maths said we needed to average 1.33 points per game for the rest of the season - which is mid table form.

So how have we done (in the league) since Fleetwood? Well it's DDWDWLWLW ..... 15 points from 9 games which is 1.66 points per game. That is well ahead of schedule indeed over a whole season that is comfortably play-off form!

At the risk of being a stat bore I'll periodically resurrect this thread :thumbup:
#STILLALONGWAYTOGO

 

[X Isle]

Cheers fella, this nerd for one appreciates calm statistical pragmatism over knee jerk reactions any day :thumbs:

Small increments they may be but that's all we need, it offers some hope.

 

[James J]

This is a huge improvement compared to the opening couple of months. It may not be pretty to watch but we are proving to be much more difficult to beat. The signing of Diagouraga and now Taylor returning has given us a major boost going forward. With the January window fast approching too I’m sure DA will know what additions he needs to see us secure the points we need. I’m very confident we can stay up as long as we don’t pick up too many more major injuries.

 

[Ave IT]

Thought I’d resurrect this thread again – if you recall we’d calculated that after our disastrous start to the season we needed to average at least 1.33 points per game (ppg) for the remainder of the season to reach the golden target of 51 points which almost certainly would mean survival. To say that a few posters didn’t exactly ……..ahem……….think this likely is putting it mildly . Well since that low ebb after Fleetwood when we’d amassed the grand total of 5 points from 12 games we then went on to get 29 points from our next 15 games …… an astonishing 1.93 ppg, which over a season would give nearly 89 points which would be, not quite league-winning but certainly enough for runners-up. That is amazing – and over 15 games can’t be dismissed as a statistical quirk or blip in luck.

In terms of hitting our 51 points target we now only need to average 0.89 ppg – which would be genuine relegation form (41 points over a season). If we carry on at the same rate of 1.93 ppg we will get 70 points which was 3 points short of the play-offs last season. So we actually need to step up slightly to just over 2ppg to reach that …….. which still looks really unlikely TBH*…… but then again less unlikely than our last 15 game haul.

*EDIT TO ADD...... There is a precedence for this - Barnsley went from the relegation zone on Christmas day 2015 to WIN the L1 play-offs in May 2016

 

[X Isle]

Cheers Ave'. It outlines what a remarkable recovery we've enjoyed while tempering expectations of the play-offs.

I'm very much a 'one game at a time' sort but this periodic stock check is very welcome, I hope it stays as a feature :thumbup:

 

[Balham Green]

Thought I’d resurrect this thread again – if you recall we’d calculated that after our disastrous start to the season we needed to average at least 1.33 points per game (ppg) for the remainder of the season to reach the golden target of 51 points which almost certainly would mean survival. To say that a few posters didn’t exactly ……..ahem……….think this likely is putting it mildly . Well since that low ebb after Fleetwood when we’d amassed the grand total of 5 points from 12 games we then went on to get 29 points from our next 15 games …… an astonishing 1.93 ppg, which over a season would give nearly 89 points which would be, not quite league-winning but certainly enough for runners-up. That is amazing – and over 15 games can’t be dismissed as a statistical quirk or blip in luck.

In terms of hitting our 51 points target we now only need to average 0.89 ppg – which would be genuine relegation form (41 points over a season). If we carry on at the same rate of 1.93 ppg we will get 70 points which was 3 points short of the play-offs last season. So we actually need to step up slightly to just over 2ppg to reach that …….. which still looks really unlikely TBH*…… but then again less unlikely than our last 15 game haul.

*EDIT TO ADD...... There is a precedence for this - Barnsley went from the relegation zone on Christmas day 2015 to WIN the L1 play-offs in May 2016

Hardly surprising that many, myself included, did not think it possible at that stage. Just shows how badly Adams got it wrong with a fairly good team.

 

[Old Gunner]

Thought I’d resurrect this thread again – if you recall we’d calculated that after our disastrous start to the season we needed to average at least 1.33 points per game (ppg) for the remainder of the season to reach the golden target of 51 points which almost certainly would mean survival. To say that a few posters didn’t exactly ……..ahem……….think this likely is putting it mildly . Well since that low ebb after Fleetwood when we’d amassed the grand total of 5 points from 12 games we then went on to get 29 points from our next 15 games …… an astonishing 1.93 ppg, which over a season would give nearly 89 points which would be, not quite league-winning but certainly enough for runners-up. That is amazing – and over 15 games can’t be dismissed as a statistical quirk or blip in luck.

In terms of hitting our 51 points target we now only need to average 0.89 ppg – which would be genuine relegation form (41 points over a season). If we carry on at the same rate of 1.93 ppg we will get 70 points which was 3 points short of the play-offs last season. So we actually need to step up slightly to just over 2ppg to reach that …….. which still looks really unlikely TBH*…… but then again less unlikely than our last 15 game haul.

*EDIT TO ADD...... There is a precedence for this - Barnsley went from the relegation zone on Christmas day 2015 to WIN the L1 play-offs in May 2016

Hardly surprising that many, myself included, did not think it possible at that stage. Just shows how badly Adams got it wrong with a fairly good team.

Yep I was having doubts about DA but to be fair he didn't have the best players available or performing during this period.

 

[NorfolkGreen]

It has been a remarkable and very welcome turnaround, credit where it’s due.

 

[Neilz]

It has been an unbelievable turnaround and beyond even optimists expectations, credit to Adams and the players they stuck to the task when they needed to and no knee jerk reactions, shame the same can’t be said for some on here.

Credit to Ave IT for resurrecting this thread, and the first 4/5 pages just sums pasoti and some of the SUPPORT for argyle by so called FANS, and just shows that Adams comment about fickle fans was spot on. Credit to all those that thought it possible even at the hardest times. Still a way to go but a job very well done so far.

 

[Balham Green]

Saturday's result gives me optimism.

Plus, Shrewsbury were in a similar position to us at this point last season (albeit a couple of points more) and they hit 51 points, and finished 18th.

We're not bad enough to go down imho - we'll finish somewhere between 20th and 16th.

So ... would you like to name the four teams, worse than us, who are going down? :think:

Who cares? - 51 points (or probably just 50) is all WE need. Don't care about anyone else. For a punt though I'd say Wimbledon, Gillingham, Northampton, Rochdale, MK Dons and Southend. Perm any four.

Yeah I'd agree with the first four you have suggested, and perhaps would include Oldham in that discussion. I think Dons and Southend will be fine.

Worth bearing in mind we have played 8 of the current top 12, and after Blackburn, that will be 9.

I honestly believe that, over the next few weeks when we play those around us, we will quickly rise up towards mid-table.

:clap:

 

[jerryatricjanner]

29 points from 15 which was preceded by 1 point from 9 is an astonishing turn around.

 

[moles40]

But it should be even better,think of the times we have been leading and NOT won.Hope not again Saturday away.

 

[Fergy]

I think our form will dip considerably following Toums’ departure but to average less than 0.89 points per game from now on would be pretty spectacular. My prediction for us to finish 14th at the end of the season is looking quite accurate at the moment.