Balham_Green":29lyu764 said:IJN":29lyu764 said:Exactly the same as all the other permutations.
It's the same as the National Lottery, the odds of 1,2,3,4,5 and 6 are the same as any other group of numbers.
:crazy:
Er dont think you have done the calculations! 'Same as other permutations' is not correct. Just said it off the top of your head.
You are completely correct BG. The draw tonight was MORE likely than drawing lottery numbers.
As there were 44 balls for top two division teams and only 20 for lower league teams...
The odds that the first ball would be for a top two division team was 44/64 or 68.75%
The odds that the second ball would be for a top two division team was 43/63 or 68.25%
The third ball odds were 67.47%
The fourth ball odds were 67.21%
etc
Even after 12 balls for the top two divisions the odds on the next one being another top team were 32/52 or 61.54%. So really, you could say it was a surprise that a lower league team came out so early.