Comparison to Previous Seasons

[Paul]

Say the average for 3rd place over the last 20 years was 85 points & the average for 4th was 80; then 81 points, generally, will be enough to see you promoted.......or am I being thick? (Which is probably the case).

If the team that finishes 3rd gets an average of 85 points then the teams that finish in 1st and 2nd must get an average of more than 85 points. So we have 3 teams that get 85 points or more. The league would look a bit like this.
1. Team A More than 85pts
2. Team B More than 85pts
3. Team C 85pts
4. Argyle 81pts

 

[kernow19]

Say the average for 3rd place over the last 20 years was 85 points & the average for 4th was 80; then 81 points, generally, will be enough to see you promoted.......or am I being thick? (Which is probably the case).

If the team that finishes 3rd gets an average of 85 points then the teams that finish in 1st and 2nd must get an average of more than 85 points. So we have 3 teams that get 85 points or more. The league would look a bit like this.
1. Team A More than 85pts
2. Team B More than 85pts
3. Team C 85pts
4. Argyle 81pts

Play-offs it is then. :sad:

 

[Quizmike]

To cover all bases, here's stats for both 3rd and 4th places over the previous 10 seasons

Average points for the 3rd placed team: 82.6
Average points for the 4th placed team: 80.0

Here's the 3rd and 4th placed finishers and points for the last 10 seasons

2015/16: Bristol Rovers 85 Accrington Stanley 85
2014/15: Bury 85 Wycombe 84
2013/14: Rochdale 81 Fleetwood 76
2012/13: Port Vale 78 Burton 76
2011/12: Crawley 84 Southend 83
2010/11: Wycombe 80 Shrewsbury 79
2009/10: Rochdale 82 Morecambe 73
2008/09: Wycombe 78 Bury 78
2007/08: Hereford 88 Stockport 82
2006/07: Swindon 85 MK Dons 84

Third place: High 88 Low 78
Fourth place: High 85 Low 73

 

[jerryatricjanner]

If two of the teams just below us got 2 points a game for the rest of the season, which is unlikely we would only need 83 points to guarantee 3rd place. That is just 23 points from 17 games or bottom half of the table form for the rest of the season which isn't going to happen either. Relax people we have one foot over the line and will cruise it now. I do remember last season but this squad is much stronger and there is no comparison with the subs bench we have now compared to last season. I reckon we will push Donny all the way to the title with the rest languishing well behind.

 

[ChepstowGreen]

Good stuff, please keep the updates coming QuizMike. COYG

 

[Metal Green Mickey]

Would love to win the championship. I felt in 01/02 I was very lucky to experience it.

So you can imagine how delighted I was when it came around in 03/04.

Yet I haven't experienced that many promotions. 85/86 was slightly too early for me to really know what it meant and enjoy. 1996 was a perfect occasion.

To be honest though any promotion would be something wonderful to experience.

However, injuries, bad referees, etc.... can influence a league that is so tight.

 

[PL2 3DQ]

It would be fitting if we returned to the top of League Two after beating Carlisle on March 4th, six years to the very day we went into administration.

We'll hopefully go top well before then but it would be so good to be there on March 4th and stay there.

 

[Quizmike]

In 2001/02, Argyle also lost game 30. A 2-0 defeat at Luton

Points after 30 games (final points in brackets)

2001/02 - 61 (102)
2016/17 - 60
2003/04 - 60 (90)
2015/16 - 59 (81)

 

[Quizmike]

I've had a look at 1985/86 when we finished 2nd in what is now League 1. After 30 games we had 46 points and were in 8th.

We finished the season with 87 points, with a record for the final 16 games of W13 D2 L1. The last 16 games of 2001/02 were also W13 D2 L1. In both seasons the defeat came in game 42.

 

[cheshiregreen]

85/86 was a little out of the ordinary though.

Not checked GoS but from memory, we won about 8 of our last 10 with Tynan on a real purple streak of scoring.

 

[Quizmike]

85/86 was a little out of the ordinary though.

Not checked GoS but from memory, we won about 8 of our last 10 with Tynan on a real purple streak of scoring.

Tynan scored 10 goals in the final 8 games

http://greensonscreen.co.uk/gosdb-seaso ... =1985-1986

 

[Quizmike]

Points after 31 games (total points in brackets)

2001/02 - 64 (102)
2016/17 - 61
2003/04 - 60 (90)
2015/16 - 60 (81)

 

[PL2 3DQ]

Game 31 was where it started to go wrong last season in a 1-1 draw against Crawley away where we should have won. We then picked up just five points in the six games following Crawley.

If we can get through the Luton game without defeat we then have three successive home games where we should get at least seven points and not repeat the collapse at the same stage as last season.

 

[Metal Green Mickey]

Game 31 was where it started to go wrong last season in a 1-1 draw against Crawley away where we should have won. We then picked up just five points in the six games following Crawley.

If we can get through the Luton game without defeat we then have three successive home games where we should get at least seven points and not repeat the collapse at the same stage as last season.

I think we might beat Luton.

I think the harder games will be the home fixtures. Win at home and take something away is normally what they say.

Yet the home games will be hard especially if teams decide to sit deep against us.

 

[PL2 3DQ]

This season after 35 games we are second on 65 points, seven points clear of fourth place.

Last season after 35 games we were third (Oxford were only in second place on goal difference) on 65 points, eight points clear of fourth place. Points wise we were actually in a better position after 35 games last season with a bigger gap to fourth place.

After game 35 last season we lost the next two, including that sickening late defeat against Accrington but we recovered to win game 38 v Morecambe, which coincidentally is also game 38 this season.

After Morecambe we won 4, drew 1 and lost 3 in the last 8 games of the season, which isn't too bad but the good form of the teams below us caught us out. At game 35 last season Bristol Rovers were 9 points behind us.

Last season games 31 to 37 cost us promotion where we picked up 6 points from a possible 21 points.
This season from game 30 to 35 we have picked up 5 points from a possible 18.

It's uncanny.

To stop history repeating itself we really need 4 points in the next two away games.