This stage last season.... (merged)

Aaron D. · Mar 18, 2017

Reasons to be cheerful......

Matchday 38 and we're on 72 points and in 2nd place.
Pompey 3rd with 65.
Luton 4th with 62 IF they win their game in hand on Tuesday
Stevenage 5th with 61
Carlisle 6th with 59
Exeter 7th with 58

Matchday 38 last season (funnily enough we beat Morecambe) and we were on 68 points and in 4th place.
Oxford 2nd with 72
Rovers 3rd with 68
Argyle 4th with 68
Stanley 5th with 67
Pompey 6th with 63 (just 2 less than this season)

So we have 4 more points than this time last season.
Carlisle and Exeter will never catch us.
Pompey are bottlers.
Luton are inconsistent.
Stevenage on an absolutely incredible run, but even if they sustain it are 11 points behind.
Our squad depth is so much better than last season.
Last season we didnt pass 72 points until matchday 42 and we still got 81 points.

Feeling really confident right now. Bring on Donny, beat them and we'll be looking up instead of over our shoulders. We can do this!
CMON ARGO!

Mdgreener · Mar 22, 2017

How we compare to fourth place this season and last. 0 points different last season after 38 games, +11 points different this season. At the end of the day, this is what matters rather than total points (only 4 points better than last season).

Note that I compare only when the number of games played is the same. Luton's draw allows me to bring it fully up to date. (Might have been only 10 points over fourth place if they had won.) :scarf:

Knarf Reprah · Mar 22, 2017

Nope, that doesn't make sense what are you talking about?

SteveC · Mar 22, 2017

It makes perfect sense

ChepstowGreen · Mar 22, 2017

Mdgreener":3342xst3 said:
How we compare to fourth place this season and last. 0 points different last season after 38 games, +11 points different this season. At the end of the day, this is what matters rather than total points (only 4 points better than last season).

Note that I compare only when the number of games played is the same. Luton's draw allows me to bring it fully up to date. (Might have been only 10 points over fourth place if they had won.) :scarf:

Excellent, thanks for posting. Interesting how similar both gaps have been throughout the two seasons, until the last two or three weeks that is.. Let's finish the job now!!

jimbo_the_green · Mar 22, 2017

Really does highlight the situation. Last year we capitulated but there were also sides like Bristol rovers and Stanley storming up from below. This year we're still grinding out points and the chasing pack are stuttering. Unlike last year....I'm not going to say any more

Aaron D. · Mar 22, 2017

Never thought I'd get excited about a line graph......... Oooo I could crush a grape!

11 points is a massive lead at this stage, especially with all our rivals dropping points.

chave · Mar 22, 2017

I've been doing a similar thread For Pompey on our board. We were almost identical last season when I started after 24 games, by now we're only two points better off but 4 points ahead of 4th place instead of 5 points behind.

At this stage last season, the 4th placed team had 68 points; 7 more than this year. If that carries through to the end of the season, it would mean the 4th placed team would have 78 points (compared to 85 points last season).

The form of the teams at the top was 17 points from the last 8 games. With an 11 point lead over 4th place, if that pattern repeats you'd only need another 7 points to get promoted.

Army green · Mar 22, 2017

Cheers Chave, it's certainly looking very promising for the top 3 now, however looking at Stevenage's Run in, I can't see them dropping many points at all with the form they are in, so the sooner we can get these wins required the better.

Knarf Reprah · Mar 22, 2017

I get it now! How stupid of me......

Mdgreener · Mar 22, 2017

When winning 1-0 with 15 minutes to go, it's called "game management". Is there an equivalent "season management"? I suspect that will mean no barn storming in the first half of games - if we drew every game, Stevenage would need to win 6 of their last 8 games to catch us. However, their last 8 have been 6 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss. Meanwhile, we got 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses. A repeat of the last 8 would do it. Now kindly, forget this post entirely and focus on Donny.

Dazzy3000 · Mar 22, 2017

Knarf Reprah":35v1wi5e said:
Nope, that doesn't make sense what are you talking about?

You Knarf are a trouble maker

Metal Green Mickey · Mar 22, 2017

Stevenage are on an interesting run because they have beaten now Luton and Portsmouth with ease.

Bristol Rovers last season went from March till the end of the season with 14 games 11 wins 2 draws 1 defeat. It is possible to put together a run that see a playoff contender become a late 3 contender.

So if they won their remaining games they would finish on 85. A couple of draws and a defeat though would change things.

Where might they slip up?

25th March Cambridge (a) - Although their stats reveal they are much better away from home

8th April Colchester (a) - 3rd in the home form table

22nd April Mansfield (H) - Although their stats reveal they are much better at home

The other games are against Barnet, Yeovil, Carlisle, Morecambe and Accrington.

Argyle are playing the 1st (Doncaster), 3rd (Colchester) and 4th (Portsmouth) best home records currently in the league two. Makes for an interesting finish.

Adam R · Mar 22, 2017

The Doctor":1e5fkipc said:
A statistician colleague of mine sent me the following analysis of Argyle's results this season:

Home record against current top half teams: P11 W7 D2 F22 A15 Pts 23 = 2.09 points per game
Away record against current top half teams: P8 W5 D2 L1 F10 A4 Pts 17 = 2.125 ppg

Home record against current bottom half teams: P8 W3 D1 L4 F10 A 11 Pts 10 = 1.25 ppg
Away record against current bottom half teams: P10 W6 D1 L3 F15 A10 Pts 19 = 1.9 ppg

Based on this it is blindingly obvious what Argyle's problem is (home games against weaker opposition). Combining some of the figures we have gained 59 points from the 29 games when we have not played weaker opposition at home (i.e. 2 ppg) and just 10 points from the 8 games when we have (i.e. 1.25 ppg).

So we should be overly concerned about having to travel to Doncaster and Portsmouth (or Colchester, Crawley or Grimsby for that matter) but we should be concerned that we have Morecambe, Accrington, Newport and Crewe still to play at home. However, using the average figures for ppg above we might expect to get 3 x 2.125 + 2 x 1.9 = 10.175 points from the away games and 4 x 1.25 = 5 points from the home games and if we do get another 15 points then we are most certainly going to be promoted.

Was this friend actually you Doc??

Love a good stat!

davie nine · Mar 22, 2017

It's OK, Adam. We have got 3 points off Morecambe since The Doc's 'colleague' produced that stat.