This stage last season.... (merged)

[Koala Green]

Good on you John Doe for your positivity! liking how you are thinking, I feel better already!

 

[The Doctor]

Useful if only to see that Oxford were 1 point behind where we are currently but only secured promotion on the last day. Still some twists and turns to come!

The key difference being that we currently have only 2 teams within 10 points of us (3 if Luton win their game in hand) whereas this time last year Oxford had 4 (6 if Wycombe and Wimbledon had won their games in hand). They also only had a gap of only 6 points over 4th place (3 if Bristol Rovers won their game in hand or only 2 if Accrington won both of their games in hand). Our gap over 4th place is 10 point (8 if Luton win their game in hand).

So we are really in a MUCH better position than Oxford were this time last year.

 

[Andy Tall]

This stage last season we dropped out of the automatics (thanks to GoS).

 

[samjones]

Were our last 9 run in games as tough last season ?

Personally I think we have a tough run in and only Exeter seem to have a worse one.

They could do us a big favour by taking points off other promotion candidates which will be great as long as they ultimately fail in the play offs

 

[Charles Plym]

Were our last 9 run in games as tough last season ?

Personally I think we have a tough run in and only Exeter seem to have a worse one.

They could do us a big favour by taking points off other promotion candidates which will be great as long as they ultimately fail in the play offs

Im happy that we have 'tougher' teams to play , our worst results have been at the hands of 'easy' teams I'm also glad we are away more than home as this will negate the effect of our panicky home crowd.

 

[Biggs]

I'm not really sure that we have tougher teams to play (on paper). The Luton and Wycombe away games were the ones I saw as particularly tricky.

We are still to play Morecambe, Accrington, Crawley, Grimsby, Newport and Crewe of the mid to lower table sides. Three wins from those six games and I believe we'll be promoted. And I'm highly confident of picking up at least a couple of points or a win in the 'tougher' games v Doncaster, Pompey and Colchester.

 

[Aaron D.]

Good on you John Doe for your positivity! liking how you are thinking, I feel better already!

Cheers mate!

 

[Aaron D.]

Useful if only to see that Oxford were 1 point behind where we are currently but only secured promotion on the last day. Still some twists and turns to come!

The key difference being that we currently have only 2 teams within 10 points of us (3 if Luton win their game in hand) whereas this time last year Oxford had 4 (6 if Wycombe and Wimbledon had won their games in hand). They also only had a gap of only 6 points over 4th place (3 if Bristol Rovers won their game in hand or only 2 if Accrington won both of their games in hand). Our gap over 4th place is 10 point (8 if Luton win their game in hand).

So we are really in a MUCH better position than Oxford were this time last year.

Exactly Doc. That's why I'm feeling so upbeat. We'll get over 80 points, and I can't see two teams overtaking us. Portsmouth maybe.

Regarding games against so called tough teams, I don't get it. We went to anfield and drew, we lost miserably at home to a few 'easy' teams. I feel slightly more confident about the tough games than the easy ones!

 

[Balham Green]

I'm not really sure that we have tougher teams to play (on paper). The Luton and Wycombe away games were the ones I saw as particularly tricky.

We are still to play Morecambe, Accrington, Crawley, Grimsby, Newport and Crewe of the mid to lower table sides. Three wins from those six games and I believe we'll be promoted. And I'm highly confident of picking up at least a couple of points or a win in the 'tougher' games v Doncaster, Pompey and Colchester.

Exactly. We can't have an easier run in of home games in theory. If we lose them we don't deserve to go up.

 

[PL2 3DQ]

I'm not really sure that we have tougher teams to play (on paper). The Luton and Wycombe away games were the ones I saw as particularly tricky.

We are still to play Morecambe, Accrington, Crawley, Grimsby, Newport and Crewe of the mid to lower table sides. Three wins from those six games and I believe we'll be promoted. And I'm highly confident of picking up at least a couple of points or a win in the 'tougher' games v Doncaster, Pompey and Colchester.

Plus Doncaster haven't lost at home this season and where the "Law of Typical Argyle" will apply.

 

[Biggs]

I'm not really sure that we have tougher teams to play (on paper). The Luton and Wycombe away games were the ones I saw as particularly tricky.

We are still to play Morecambe, Accrington, Crawley, Grimsby, Newport and Crewe of the mid to lower table sides. Three wins from those six games and I believe we'll be promoted. And I'm highly confident of picking up at least a couple of points or a win in the 'tougher' games v Doncaster, Pompey and Colchester.

Plus Doncaster haven't lost at home this season and where the "Law of Typical Argyle" will apply.

I vividly remember watching on TV when we played there in the Championship, and Joe Mason and Bradley Wright Phillips scoring to win against the odds.

Same again, please!

 

[jerryatricjanner]

If I was looking at the current table as an outsider rather than an Argyle fan I would think the top two places are nailed on with Pompey having to watch their backs. As an Argyle fan I don't quite feel it's nailed on just yet. Games are fast running out however.

 

[The Doctor]

A statistician colleague of mine sent me the following analysis of Argyle's results this season:

Home record against current top half teams: P11 W7 D2 F22 A15 Pts 23 = 2.09 points per game
Away record against current top half teams: P8 W5 D2 L1 F10 A4 Pts 17 = 2.125 ppg

Home record against current bottom half teams: P8 W3 D1 L4 F10 A 11 Pts 10 = 1.25 ppg
Away record against current bottom half teams: P10 W6 D1 L3 F15 A10 Pts 19 = 1.9 ppg

Based on this it is blindingly obvious what Argyle's problem is (home games against weaker opposition). Combining some of the figures we have gained 59 points from the 29 games when we have not played weaker opposition at home (i.e. 2 ppg) and just 10 points from the 8 games when we have (i.e. 1.25 ppg).

So we should be overly concerned about having to travel to Doncaster and Portsmouth (or Colchester, Crawley or Grimsby for that matter) but we should be concerned that we have Morecambe, Accrington, Newport and Crewe still to play at home. However, using the average figures for ppg above we might expect to get 3 x 2.125 + 2 x 1.9 = 10.175 points from the away games and 4 x 1.25 = 5 points from the home games and if we do get another 15 points then we are most certainly going to be promoted.

 

[Balham Green]

A statistician colleague of mine sent me the following analysis of Argyle's results this season:

Home record against current top half teams: P11 W7 D2 F22 A15 Pts 23 = 2.09 points per game
Away record against current top half teams: P8 W5 D2 L1 F10 A4 Pts 17 = 2.125 ppg

Home record against current bottom half teams: P8 W3 D1 L4 F10 A 11 Pts 10 = 1.25 ppg
Away record against current bottom half teams: P10 W6 D1 L3 F15 A10 Pts 19 = 1.9 ppg

Based on this it is blindingly obvious what Argyle's problem is (home games against weaker opposition). Combining some of the figures we have gained 59 points from the 29 games when we have not played weaker opposition at home (i.e. 2 ppg) and just 10 points from the 8 games when we have (i.e. 1.25 ppg).

So we should be overly concerned about having to travel to Doncaster and Portsmouth (or Colchester, Crawley or Grimsby for that matter) but we should be concerned that we have Morecambe, Accrington, Newport and Crewe still to play at home. However, using the average figures for ppg above we might expect to get 3 x 2.125 + 2 x 1.9 = 10.175 points from the away games and 4 x 1.25 = 5 points from the home games and if we do get another 15 points then we are most certainly going to be promoted.

And there is the danger of statistics as per the midweek thread. I guarantee we will get a lot of points against the bottom half teams in last 4 games.

 

[samjones]

A statistician colleague of mine sent me the following analysis of Argyle's results this season:

Home record against current top half teams: P11 W7 D2 F22 A15 Pts 23 = 2.09 points per game
Away record against current top half teams: P8 W5 D2 L1 F10 A4 Pts 17 = 2.125 ppg

Home record against current bottom half teams: P8 W3 D1 L4 F10 A 11 Pts 10 = 1.25 ppg
Away record against current bottom half teams: P10 W6 D1 L3 F15 A10 Pts 19 = 1.9 ppg

Based on this it is blindingly obvious what Argyle's problem is (home games against weaker opposition). Combining some of the figures we have gained 59 points from the 29 games when we have not played weaker opposition at home (i.e. 2 ppg) and just 10 points from the 8 games when we have (i.e. 1.25 ppg).

So we should be overly concerned about having to travel to Doncaster and Portsmouth (or Colchester, Crawley or Grimsby for that matter) but we should be concerned that we have Morecambe, Accrington, Newport and Crewe still to play at home. However, using the average figures for ppg above we might expect to get 3 x 2.125 + 2 x 1.9 = 10.175 points from the away games and 4 x 1.25 = 5 points from the home games and if we do get another 15 points then we are most certainly going to be promoted.

Would take 15 points from our last 9 games all day long as that will definitely be enough to see us PROMOTED.

Not so sure the 11 pts from 9 games I predict and 80 pts is enough though. I think that is very touch and go and includes us winning away at Grimsby on the last day of the season.

We have simply got to nail these last 4 home games which we should be doing as a top team. Minimum 9pts required from these games or I think we are seriously in the 5h1t