nick_PASTIE":1vozlee2 said:Useful if only to see that Oxford were 1 point behind where we are currently but only secured promotion on the last day. Still some twists and turns to come!
samjones":1gitcdzp said:Were our last 9 run in games as tough last season ?
Personally I think we have a tough run in and only Exeter seem to have a worse one.
They could do us a big favour by taking points off other promotion candidates which will be great as long as they ultimately fail in the play offs
Cheers mate!Koala Green":1awitjpg said:Good on you John Doe for your positivity! liking how you are thinking, I feel better already!
The Doctor":2pktaonk said:nick_PASTIE":2pktaonk said:Useful if only to see that Oxford were 1 point behind where we are currently but only secured promotion on the last day. Still some twists and turns to come!
The key difference being that we currently have only 2 teams within 10 points of us (3 if Luton win their game in hand) whereas this time last year Oxford had 4 (6 if Wycombe and Wimbledon had won their games in hand). They also only had a gap of only 6 points over 4th place (3 if Bristol Rovers won their game in hand or only 2 if Accrington won both of their games in hand). Our gap over 4th place is 10 point (8 if Luton win their game in hand).
So we are really in a MUCH better position than Oxford were this time last year.
Biggs":1vpxpkar said:I'm not really sure that we have tougher teams to play (on paper). The Luton and Wycombe away games were the ones I saw as particularly tricky.
We are still to play Morecambe, Accrington, Crawley, Grimsby, Newport and Crewe of the mid to lower table sides. Three wins from those six games and I believe we'll be promoted. And I'm highly confident of picking up at least a couple of points or a win in the 'tougher' games v Doncaster, Pompey and Colchester.
Biggs":13w8wikc said:I'm not really sure that we have tougher teams to play (on paper). The Luton and Wycombe away games were the ones I saw as particularly tricky.
We are still to play Morecambe, Accrington, Crawley, Grimsby, Newport and Crewe of the mid to lower table sides. Three wins from those six games and I believe we'll be promoted. And I'm highly confident of picking up at least a couple of points or a win in the 'tougher' games v Doncaster, Pompey and Colchester.
PL2 3DQ":20rsp2fc said:Biggs":20rsp2fc said:I'm not really sure that we have tougher teams to play (on paper). The Luton and Wycombe away games were the ones I saw as particularly tricky.
We are still to play Morecambe, Accrington, Crawley, Grimsby, Newport and Crewe of the mid to lower table sides. Three wins from those six games and I believe we'll be promoted. And I'm highly confident of picking up at least a couple of points or a win in the 'tougher' games v Doncaster, Pompey and Colchester.
Plus Doncaster haven't lost at home this season and where the "Law of Typical Argyle" will apply.
The Doctor":3dtqe2ai said:A statistician colleague of mine sent me the following analysis of Argyle's results this season:
Home record against current top half teams: P11 W7 D2 F22 A15 Pts 23 = 2.09 points per game
Away record against current top half teams: P8 W5 D2 L1 F10 A4 Pts 17 = 2.125 ppg
Home record against current bottom half teams: P8 W3 D1 L4 F10 A 11 Pts 10 = 1.25 ppg
Away record against current bottom half teams: P10 W6 D1 L3 F15 A10 Pts 19 = 1.9 ppg
Based on this it is blindingly obvious what Argyle's problem is (home games against weaker opposition). Combining some of the figures we have gained 59 points from the 29 games when we have not played weaker opposition at home (i.e. 2 ppg) and just 10 points from the 8 games when we have (i.e. 1.25 ppg).
So we should be overly concerned about having to travel to Doncaster and Portsmouth (or Colchester, Crawley or Grimsby for that matter) but we should be concerned that we have Morecambe, Accrington, Newport and Crewe still to play at home. However, using the average figures for ppg above we might expect to get 3 x 2.125 + 2 x 1.9 = 10.175 points from the away games and 4 x 1.25 = 5 points from the home games and if we do get another 15 points then we are most certainly going to be promoted.
The Doctor":1e9j66mk said:A statistician colleague of mine sent me the following analysis of Argyle's results this season:
Home record against current top half teams: P11 W7 D2 F22 A15 Pts 23 = 2.09 points per game
Away record against current top half teams: P8 W5 D2 L1 F10 A4 Pts 17 = 2.125 ppg
Home record against current bottom half teams: P8 W3 D1 L4 F10 A 11 Pts 10 = 1.25 ppg
Away record against current bottom half teams: P10 W6 D1 L3 F15 A10 Pts 19 = 1.9 ppg
Based on this it is blindingly obvious what Argyle's problem is (home games against weaker opposition). Combining some of the figures we have gained 59 points from the 29 games when we have not played weaker opposition at home (i.e. 2 ppg) and just 10 points from the 8 games when we have (i.e. 1.25 ppg).
So we should be overly concerned about having to travel to Doncaster and Portsmouth (or Colchester, Crawley or Grimsby for that matter) but we should be concerned that we have Morecambe, Accrington, Newport and Crewe still to play at home. However, using the average figures for ppg above we might expect to get 3 x 2.125 + 2 x 1.9 = 10.175 points from the away games and 4 x 1.25 = 5 points from the home games and if we do get another 15 points then we are most certainly going to be promoted.