Barry Fry. “Peterborough have been cheated”

[Wango]

As much as I haven't liked the way Peterborough have conducted themselves during this, I really can't understand why weighted ppg was not used as the standard. It seems the fairest of 2 unperfect systems. Home and away form is a factor of football that is well recognised and often discussed.

Weighted PPG means the EFL are predicting results which is not in the EFL rulebook. Ending the season early can be done as EFL rules state the season ends 'after the last game has been played'. Non weighted PPG makes no assumptions about future performance and basically ends the season as it is now.

You are wrong to say that weighted ppg is predicting results.

Neither weighted average ppg or mean average ppg makes predictions or assumptions. The season is terminated at 36/37 games and the averages are determined from the results of the actual games played.

Calculated averages to date are not predictions of future games that will never be played.

If you want to go down that route, you may as well bring back the old Pools Panel and whilst they’re at it, get them to explain how Sunderland couldn’t even manage a draw against a team that had barely won a game in months. I’m so glad that they are missing out again, sad but true.

Rant over and back to the point. For all teams, their home average ppg is significantly higher than their away average and the crucial difference with weighted ppg is that it takes that all-important fact into account.

So in a 37-game season where you might have played 19 home games, mean average ppg gives you an advantage over a team who have played 19 away games instead.

Portsmouth have played 19 home games, Peterborough have played 19 away games.

By using mean average ppg, the extra home game is enough to put Portsmouth in the Play-offs at the expense of Peterborough.

The home and away weighting is not controversial in itself as an average it is pretty consistent over many seasons. I think the issue for the EFL is once you start using a weighting why stop with that. Should a weighting be given to teams facing weaker opposition? Should recent form be taken into account. It opens up a whole new can of worms. It adds a layer and makes a mathematical extrapolation. Ergo a forecast. Non weighted PPG is also a forecast of sorts however the result should pretty much be the table as it now except evening out the number of games. Because of the threat of legal action the EFL could argue the season ended 'after the last game was played'. This is crucially different to the Premier League rule that the season ends ' after all teams have played each other twice''.

 

[demportdave]

Spreadsheet maths, I think.

Current positions:-

Coventry 67
Rotherham 62
Oxford 60
Portsmouth 60
Fleetwood 60
Peterborough 59
Sunderland 59
Wycombe 59

Straight PPG:-

Coventry 1.971
Rotherham 1.771
Wycombe 1.735
Oxford 1.714
Portsmouth 1.714
Fleetwood 1.714
Peterborough 1.686
Sunderland 1.639

Weighted PPG:-

Oxford 1.971
Rotherham 1.770
Oxford 1.725
Fleetwood 1.704
Peterborough 1.703
Wycombe 1.698
Portsmouth 1.696
Sunderland 1.618

So, it’s Portsmouth or Peterborough in playoffs with Sunderland out of the running.
Good luck Pompey!!!

Davie, you have listed Oxford twice and forgotten Coventry.

However, more importantly, the way that you have listed the ppg average table is absolutely the correct way to show the table at the conclusion of a prematurely terminated season, not 86, 77, 75, etc. based on the 44-game season, as most people are doing.

This would stop people mistakenly thinking that the EFL have predicted the results of games that will not be played.

 

[demportdave]

As much as I haven't liked the way Peterborough have conducted themselves during this, I really can't understand why weighted ppg was not used as the standard. It seems the fairest of 2 unperfect systems. Home and away form is a factor of football that is well recognised and often discussed.

Weighted PPG means the EFL are predicting results which is not in the EFL rulebook. Ending the season early can be done as EFL rules state the season ends 'after the last game has been played'. Non weighted PPG makes no assumptions about future performance and basically ends the season as it is now.

You are wrong to say that weighted ppg is predicting results.

Neither weighted average ppg or mean average ppg makes predictions or assumptions. The season is terminated at 36/37 games and the averages are determined from the results of the actual games played.

Calculated averages to date are not predictions of future games that will never be played.

If you want to go down that route, you may as well bring back the old Pools Panel and whilst they’re at it, get them to explain how Sunderland couldn’t even manage a draw against a team that had barely won a game in months. I’m so glad that they are missing out again, sad but true.

Rant over and back to the point. For all teams, their home average ppg is significantly higher than their away average and the crucial difference with weighted ppg is that it takes that all-important fact into account.

So in a 37-game season where you might have played 19 home games, mean average ppg gives you an advantage over a team who have played 19 away games instead.

Portsmouth have played 19 home games, Peterborough have played 19 away games.

By using mean average ppg, the extra home game is enough to put Portsmouth in the Play-offs at the expense of Peterborough.

The home and away weighting is not controversial in itself as an average it is pretty consistent over many seasons. I think the issue for the EFL is once you start using a weighting why stop with that. Should a weighting be given to teams facing weaker opposition? Should recent form be taken into account. It opens up a whole new can of worms. It adds a layer and makes a mathematical extrapolation. Ergo a forecast. Non weighted PPG is also a forecast of sorts however the result should pretty much be the table as it now except evening out the number of games. Because of the threat of legal action the EFL could argue the season ended 'after the last game was played'. This is crucially different to the Premier League rule that the season ends ' after all teams have played each other twice''.

This is only about this unique season, not “many seasons”, so I don’t know what you are referring to there.

If you accept that relegation and promotion can be decided after 80% of the season has been completed then surely average points have to be calculated regardless of who you have or have not played.

If you look at davie nine’s ppg table, that is how the table should be shown. It is a (terminated) table based on ppg of actual games played rather than a a 46-game table. It does not involve any calculations or predictions.

You cannot argue the fact that teams have a higher home average than away average so be default, unweighted favours any team that has played more games at home and discriminated against a team that has played more games away.

This is why France and other countries have used the weighted method to calculate average ppg.

As for possible legal action, that is just BS and bluster, worthy of Vicky Johnson or Donald Trump; there will be no legal action involving clubs at League 1 or League 2 level.

These clubs are going to have to save their money to ensure they don’t slip into administration.

 

[Wango]

If you look at davie nine’s ppg table, that is how the table should be shown. It is a (terminated) table based on ppg of actual games played rather than a a 46-game table. It does not involve any calculations or predictions.

You cannot argue the fact that teams have a higher home average than away average so be default, unweighted favours any team that has played more games at home and discriminated against a team that has played more games away.

This is why France and other countries have used the weighted method to calculate average ppg.

As for possible legal action, that is just BS and bluster, worthy of Vicky Johnson or Donald Trump; there will be no legal action involving clubs at League 1 or League 2 level.

These clubs are going to have to save their money to ensure they don’t slip into administration.

I think my point was over a season the statistical advantage of playing at home as opposed to playing away is as close to mathematical fact that you can get in football. I agree that non weighted favours teams that have played fewer games. I also agree that weighted is fairer. I am not arguing anything. I am trying to make a suggestion as to why the EFL favours non-weighted. Which they clearly do.

 

[davie nine]

Spreadsheet maths, I think.

Current positions:-

Coventry 67
Rotherham 62
Oxford 60
Portsmouth 60
Fleetwood 60
Peterborough 59
Sunderland 59
Wycombe 59

Straight PPG:-

Coventry 1.971
Rotherham 1.771
Wycombe 1.735
Oxford 1.714
Portsmouth 1.714
Fleetwood 1.714
Peterborough 1.686
Sunderland 1.639

Weighted PPG:-

Oxford 1.971
Rotherham 1.770
Oxford 1.725
Fleetwood 1.704
Peterborough 1.703
Wycombe 1.698
Portsmouth 1.696
Sunderland 1.618

So, it’s Portsmouth or Peterborough in playoffs with Sunderland out of the running.
Good luck Pompey!!!

Davie, you have listed Oxford twice and forgotten Coventry.

However, more importantly, the way that you have listed the ppg average table is absolutely the correct way to show the table at the conclusion of a prematurely terminated season, not 86, 77, 75, etc. based on the 44-game season, as most people are doing.

This would stop people mistakenly thinking that the EFL have predicted the results of games that will not be played.

Oops!!! Sorry about that, dd. Not sure how that happened. I’m not going to say it was a deliberate mistake to see if anyone would notice but I did say ‘I think’.
A typing error, can't blame the spreadsheet.
Current positions:-

Coventry 67
Rotherham 62
Oxford 60
Portsmouth 60
Fleetwood 60
Peterborough 59
Sunderland 59
Wycombe 59

Straight PPG:-

Coventry 1.971
Rotherham 1.771
Wycombe 1.735
Oxford 1.714
Portsmouth 1.714
Fleetwood 1.714
Peterborough 1.686
Sunderland 1.639

Weighted PPG:-

Coventry 1.971
Rotherham 1.770
Oxford 1.725
Fleetwood 1.704
Peterborough 1.703
Wycombe 1.698
Portsmouth 1.696
Sunderland 1.618

 

[Quintrell Green]

As much as I haven't liked the way Peterborough have conducted themselves during this, I really can't understand why weighted ppg was not used as the standard. It seems the fairest of 2 unperfect systems. Home and away form is a factor of football that is well recognised and often discussed.

Weighted PPG means the EFL are predicting results which is not in the EFL rulebook. Ending the season early can be done as EFL rules state the season ends 'after the last game has been played'. Non weighted PPG makes no assumptions about future performance and basically ends the season as it is now.

You are wrong to say that weighted ppg is predicting results.

Neither weighted average ppg or mean average ppg makes predictions or assumptions. The season is terminated at 36/37 games and the averages are determined from the results of the actual games played.

Calculated averages to date are not predictions of future games that will never be played.

If you want to go down that route, you may as well bring back the old Pools Panel and whilst they’re at it, get them to explain how Sunderland couldn’t even manage a draw against a team that had barely won a game in months. I’m so glad that they are missing out again, sad but true.

Rant over and back to the point. For all teams, their home average ppg is significantly higher than their away average and the crucial difference with weighted ppg is that it takes that all-important fact into account.

So in a 37-game season where you might have played 19 home games, mean average ppg gives you an advantage over a team who have played 19 away games instead.

Portsmouth have played 19 home games, Peterborough have played 19 away games.

By using mean average ppg, the extra home game is enough to put Portsmouth in the Play-offs at the expense of Peterborough.

The home and away weighting is not controversial in itself as an average it is pretty consistent over many seasons. I think the issue for the EFL is once you start using a weighting why stop with that. Should a weighting be given to teams facing weaker opposition? Should recent form be taken into account. It opens up a whole new can of worms. It adds a layer and makes a mathematical extrapolation. Ergo a forecast. Non weighted PPG is also a forecast of sorts however the result should pretty much be the table as it now except evening out the number of games. Because of the threat of legal action the EFL could argue the season ended 'after the last game was played'. This is crucially different to the Premier League rule that the season ends ' after all teams have played each other twice''.

This is only about this unique season, not “many seasons”, so I don’t know what you are referring to there.

If you accept that relegation and promotion can be decided after 80% of the season has been completed then surely average points have to be calculated regardless of who you have or have not played.

If you look at davie nine’s ppg table, that is how the table should be shown. It is a (terminated) table based on ppg of actual games played rather than a a 46-game table. It does not involve any calculations or predictions.

You cannot argue the fact that teams have a higher home average than away average so be default, unweighted favours any team that has played more games at home and discriminated against a team that has played more games away.

This is why France and other countries have used the weighted method to calculate average ppg.

As for possible legal action, that is just BS and bluster, worthy of Vicky Johnson or Donald Trump; there will be no legal action involving clubs at League 1 or League 2 level.

These clubs are going to have to save their money to ensure they don’t slip into administration.

There is big enough difficulty getting Court time to hear criminal cases. As a result a civil action as promoted here would be a long time coming to be heard in the High Court. I really cannot see the EFL withholding any start to next season before any legal outcome is settled. I think the dissenting clubs in their hearts recognise this.

 

[Dreamgreen]

As I said on another thread ...

As the EFL is effectively owned by its members, and issues voted on by its members, I fail to see how a court could over-rule the decision of its members !

As for Tranmere complaining ... wasn't Mark Palios on the Board of the EFL at one time ? Clearly not accepting the democratic vote cannot have been part of his mandate at the time then.

 

[Alan Turing]

Palios was with the FA until his affair with Faria Alam was exposed.

 

[Dreamgreen]

So Palios would have learned something about legal issues during that saga :greensmile:

 

[gaspargomez]

As I said on another thread ...

As the EFL is effectively owned by its members, and issues voted on by its members, I fail to see how a court could over-rule the decision of its members !

As for Tranmere complaining ... wasn't Mark Palios on the Board of the EFL at one time ? Clearly not accepting the democratic vote cannot have been part of his mandate at the time then.

Peterborough might argue that the rules of the competition were set out in writing at the start of the campaign and they have invested money on that basis. By arbitarily changing the rules of the competition before it had been completed, the EFL would be breaking a legally binding agreement between the parties.

Whether there is any basis to this probably depends on what the clubs sign up for when they join the league. I expect this is very complicated and a detailed knowledge of the law surrounding these things would be required to understand whether legal action would have much prospect of success.

It looks like the Premier League and Championship will be completed behind closed doors. But if promotion and relegation were to be decided on average points in those leagues then legal action would almost be invetiable given the hundreds of millions of pounds that would be at stake.