What budget did Ryan Lowe have?

[HC Green]

i have posted on this before in answer to HC Green's misplaced assertion about Ryan Lowe's budget compared to Derek Adams. Argyle gave the budget details (as much as they were able) in their financial report on the accounts for the year end June 2020 (see link - https://www.pafc.co.uk/news/2021/februa ... al-report/)

In summary wages and salaries are the major cost for Argyle. From the report,

Adams (League One) 2018-2019 £3.3m
Lowe (League Two) 2019=2020 £2.9m

Lowe (League One) - Argyle pledged their adherence (at the time) to the proposed salary cap for League One of £2.5m which was proposed in the close season but only confirmed in August 2020. Subsequently, it was challenged successfully. Other clubs gambled on expenditure pre-August 2020 that evaded that salary cap.

The wages and salaries costs stated are for all wage costs and not, for obvious reasons, the playing budget. Under Adams the team management structure was slimmer and the number of hospitality employees would have been less too. that implies that the playing budget may have been proportionately even more

On the reasonable basis of the above, it is safe to assume that Ryan Lowe's playing budget for 2020-2021 was significantly lower than when we were last in League One after Adams. The Ennis acquisition may have equated to Wooton and Cavanan's wages and with Woods on loan I doubt come February 2021 whether the wage bill was materially altered.

League One survival is a reasonable expectation and achievement on the above basis. Swindon and Northampton did not manage it.

Next season will see our greatest challenge in recent years on recruitment. We have a number of players to recruit at a time when the standard of League One next season will be something like the lower reaches of the Championship in previous seasons, in terms of standard of clubs and quality of play. Reassuringly, for me at last, that recruitment will, initially at least, be on a structured data based analysis rather than a gut instinct whim. I have posted elsewhere that we have won less aerial duels than any other club in League One. We only scored 8 gaols from set pieces - Burton Albion scored 23!. We achieved the lowest number of interceptions in play than any other team. The data provides the framework for what we need.

Both have a part to play in recruitment but I remember Paul Sturrock saying that only 50% of his signings were successful. We simply cannot afford that rate of success and we have to do better. Hopefully, with the promise of fans back at Home Park the purse strings for next season's playing budget will be slightly expanded within the club's expressed pathway to maintaining a sustainable Club.

Indeed the 19/20 costs were lower than 18/19 but as you and the Club said that this was to be expected because costs were lower as we were in League 2. Also at the fans forum where the 18/19 figures were discussed it was said that 18/19 salary costs included exceptional items caused by the change of the management team.
The implication being that the 19/20 budget in League 2 was very similar to the budget for the 18/19 League 1 season.
By implication you would expect the Club to increase the 20/21 budget as we were in League 1.

Of course the Club could have agreed to abide by the proposed salary cap rules but as that didn’t start until August and the transition rules allowed the salaries of players signed before that date to be costed at the league’s average if they exceeded that figure it would seem to have been a bit of a mistake by whoever decided that in the Club.
Another implication being that some players are on such large salaries already that there wasn’t much wiggle room to sign others.

 

[Railway sleeper]

You can’t really compare pre and post salary cap expenditure- as your not comparing like with like.

But if we are saying that Lowe and Adams had broadly similar budgets ( if we take the last season of Adams reign)- then that comparison doesn’t look too flattering for Ryan Lowe.

Lowe hasn’t got players of the quality of Graham Carey, Ruben Lameiras and Ladapo in his current squad......

 

[greenpilled]

I don't think the quantity of the loans is the problem, it's the quality and attitude that matters.
Last season we had six loans, Palmer, Hardie, Cooper, Grant and Bakinson all played a huge part in our promotion. Only Rudden could be deemed a failure.

This season the loan players haven't been the same standard or shown the same commitment, especially the two from Fulham.
I think the loans this season were mainly squad fillers due to the uncertainty of finances and Covid but eventually had to be regulars in the first team and struggled.

What basis is there for suggesting the Fulham players' commitment was any weaker than the other loanees?

 

[Paranoid Android]

You can’t really compare pre and post salary cap expenditure- as your not comparing like with like.

But if we are saying that Lowe and Adams had broadly similar budgets ( if we take the last season of Adams reign)- then that comparison doesn’t look too flattering for Ryan Lowe.

Lowe hasn’t got players of the quality of Graham Carey, Ruben Lameiras and Ladapo in his current squad......

Strange logic. I would have said the opposite, why didn’t we stay up with those players? And without them, with our youngest squad ever, we have?

 

[gaspargomez]

I have read the post from Graham Clark, above.

However, whatever financial information may (or may not) be in the public domain it seems to me that Ryan Lowe must have benefitted from a better playing budget than Derek Adams. I base that on the quality of players that each manager was able to sign. The only 'big' signing that Adams made was to keep Carey at Argyle when his contract ran out. He was probably cheap when he first signed for the club- and so were Ladapo and Lamerias (both going nowhere in their careers). The only other desirable player was probably Ryan Taylor.

I'm not an accountant but I know that there are various ways of presenting finances- sometimes to minimise tax payments etc. With the Covid situation, budgets might be down across all football league clubs- so another consideration is Argyle's budget relative to competing clubs. Then there are contract lengths and how costs are spread out across the contract. So even the published figures don't tell the whole story. The only way to find out for sure would be to ask Simon Hallett- and I can't imagine he would want to answer something like that.

 

[Paranoid Android]

I have read the post from Graham Clark, above.

However, whatever financial information may (or may not) be in the public domain it seems to me that Ryan Lowe must have benefitted from a better playing budget than Derek Adams. I base that on the quality of players that each manager was able to sign. The only 'big' signing that Adams made was to keep Carey at Argyle when his contract ran out. He was probably cheap when he first signed for the club- and so were Ladapo and Lamerias (both going nowhere in their careers). The only other desirable player was probably Ryan Taylor.

I'm not an accountant but I know that there are various ways of presenting finances- sometimes to minimise tax payments etc. With the Covid situation, budgets might be down across all football league clubs- so another consideration is Argyle's budget relative to competing clubs. Then there are contract lengths and how costs are spread out across the contract. So even the published figures don't tell the whole story. The only way to find out for sure would be to ask Simon Hallett- and I can't imagine he would want to answer something like that.

I would simply look at it from evidence. The players Ryan got in last season to get us up, compared to the players he’s been able to recruit on loans this year. Irrespective of whether the budgets a bit higher or lower, I suspect a big factor was Covid and players wanting extra security, whether that meant taking any deal for 2 years over 1, taking a higher salary or just staying as local as possible to avoid relocation costs.

The pandemic year has to have had a disproportionate effect on our ability to attract players for a year. That’s my thinking about it.

 

[oldage]

i have posted on this before in answer to HC Green's misplaced assertion about Ryan Lowe's budget compared to Derek Adams. Argyle gave the budget details (as much as they were able) in their financial report on the accounts for the year end June 2020 (see link - https://www.pafc.co.uk/news/2021/februa ... al-report/)

In summary wages and salaries are the major cost for Argyle. From the report,

Adams (League One) 2018-2019 £3.3m
Lowe (League Two) 2019=2020 £2.9m

Lowe (League One) - Argyle pledged their adherence (at the time) to the proposed salary cap for League One of £2.5m which was proposed in the close season but only confirmed in August 2020. Subsequently, it was challenged successfully. Other clubs gambled on expenditure pre-August 2020 that evaded that salary cap.

The wages and salaries costs stated are for all wage costs and not, for obvious reasons, the playing budget. Under Adams the team management structure was slimmer and the number of hospitality employees would have been less too. that implies that the playing budget may have been proportionately even more

On the reasonable basis of the above, it is safe to assume that Ryan Lowe's playing budget for 2020-2021 was significantly lower than when we were last in League One after Adams. The Ennis acquisition may have equated to Wooton and Cavanan's wages and with Woods on loan I doubt come February 2021 whether the wage bill was materially altered.

League One survival is a reasonable expectation and achievement on the above basis. Swindon and Northampton did not manage it.

Next season will see our greatest challenge in recent years on recruitment. We have a number of players to recruit at a time when the standard of League One next season will be something like the lower reaches of the Championship in previous seasons, in terms of standard of clubs and quality of play. Reassuringly, for me at last, that recruitment will, initially at least, be on a structured data based analysis rather than a gut instinct whim. I have posted elsewhere that we have won less aerial duels than any other club in League One. We only scored 8 gaols from set pieces - Burton Albion scored 23!. We achieved the lowest number of interceptions in play than any other team. The data provides the framework for what we need.

Both have a part to play in recruitment but I remember Paul Sturrock saying that only 50% of his signings were successful. We simply cannot afford that rate of success and we have to do better. Hopefully, with the promise of fans back at Home Park the purse strings for next season's playing budget will be slightly expanded within the club's expressed pathway to maintaining a sustainable Club.

Our recruitment on a"structured data based analysis" has certainly worked so far! How has if formed a "framework"for what we need? Lowe recruiting inexperienced players and trying to fit square pegs into round holes. Computer probably recommends a lower league Messi, Henderson, Grealish etc but they cost money .

 

[Dan Ellard]

I have read the post from Graham Clark, above.

However, whatever financial information may (or may not) be in the public domain it seems to me that Ryan Lowe must have benefitted from a better playing budget than Derek Adams. I base that on the quality of players that each manager was able to sign.

A.k.a. "I'm going to ignore the facts presented to me because it doesn't suit my agenda".

"Quality" is a term that goes on basis of opinion, but let's have a look at reputation. Thats basically what you're saying, isn't it - that Adams wasn't afforded the opportunity to sign players as reputable as Lowe, worrying that we were signing lower league rejects without 2nd tier experience.

Well, they've both had an equal amount of time in the 3rd and 4th tiers with us now (2 seasons in each for DA, 1 season in each for RL). So, let's take a look at the signings each of them made and the amount of Premier League and Championship experience each of those players had at the time of signing:

15/16: 15 signings, 0 PL appearances, 184 Championship appearances
16/17: 21 signings, 51 PL, 202 Ch
17/18: 19 signings, 0 PL, 389 Ch
18/19: 15 signings, 18 PL, 373 Ch


19/20: 13 signings, 7 PL, 100 Ch
20/21: 15 signings, 14 PL, 248 Ch

DA total: 70 signings, 69 PL, 1148 Ch
DA average: 0.99 PL, 16.40 Ch

RL total: 28 signings, 21 PL, 348 Ch
RL average: 0.75 PL, 12.43 Ch

So, to summarise, on average, a player Derek Adams signed had more Premier League experience and more Championship experience than a player Ryan Lowe signed.

My apologies for letting more facts get in the way of your opinion. :wave:

 

[Paranoid Android]

I have read the post from Graham Clark, above.

However, whatever financial information may (or may not) be in the public domain it seems to me that Ryan Lowe must have benefitted from a better playing budget than Derek Adams. I base that on the quality of players that each manager was able to sign.

A.k.a. "I'm going to ignore the facts presented to me because it doesn't suit my agenda".

"Quality" is a term that goes on basis of opinion, but let's have a look at reputation. Thats basically what you're saying, isn't it - that Adams wasn't afforded the opportunity to sign players as reputable as Lowe, worrying that we were signing lower league rejects without 2nd tier experience.

Well, they've both had an equal amount of time in the 3rd and 4th tiers with us now (2 seasons in each for DA, 1 season in each for RL). So, let's take a look at the signings each of them made and the amount of Premier League and Championship experience each of those players had at the time of signing:

15/16: 15 signings, 0 PL appearances, 184 Championship appearances
16/17: 21 signings, 51 PL, 202 Ch
17/18: 19 signings, 0 PL, 389 Ch
18/19: 15 signings, 18 PL, 373 Ch


19/20: 13 signings, 7 PL, 100 Ch
20/21: 15 signings, 14 PL, 248 Ch

DA total: 70 signings, 69 PL, 1148 Ch
DA average: 0.99 PL, 16.40 Ch

RL total: 28 signings, 21 PL, 348 Ch
RL average: 0.75 PL, 12.43 Ch

So, to summarise, on average, a player Derek Adams signed had more Premier League experience and more Championship experience than a player Ryan Lowe signed.

My apologies for letting more facts get in the way of your opinion. :wave:

That’s brilliant analysis thanks Dan

 

[Gary Wills]

That data seems flawed, looking at the entire career as a snapshot of reputation. Fox and Sawyer weren’t absolutely anywhere near their peak when signed, for example.

And on that basis Shilts had signed an experienced premier league squad, based upon sticking his gloves on the first time.

Taking just the immediate season before signing up, that might be a better barometer?

 

[Dan Ellard]

That data seems flawed, looking at the entire career as a snapshot of reputation. Fox and Sawyer weren’t absolutely anywhere near their peak when signed, for example.

And on that basis Shilts had signed an experienced premier league squad, based upon sticking his gloves on the first time.

Taking just the immediate season before signing up, that might be a better barometer?

.... balanced out by similar players Lowe has signed, such as McCormick and Edwards.

However, you asked and I obliged. Other than 1 PL appearance (Watts) and 12 Championship appearances (MacLeod), none of Lowe's signings made any 1st or 2nd tier appearances in the season before, giving an average of 0.46.

For Adams, there was Diagouraga with 13 Championship appearances, along with Vyner (3), Threlkeld (7), Tanner (3), Kennedy (1), and Walton (3). So an average of 0.43 - yes, fractionally lower than Lowe, but in terms of quantity, more players with 2nd tier experience. Still hardly the gulf in "quality" GG was referring to, is it?

 

[Gary Wills]

Thank you for obliging, Dan.

Agreed, no gulf based on the data, then. Hence, broadly similar outcomes.