Points Target

[GreenArmy1984]

100 Points will make us Champions !!! :scarf:

 

[X Isle]

1 point, or even plus one goal difference over 4th place is all that matters, but one game at a time is the only way to think.

 

[rsp4]

Can we not do this for another month. We started this last year and look how that ended!!! Let just wait and see what feb brings and take 1 match at a time. I was so gutted at our run in last season

 

[davie nine]

All the players can do is try to win every game.
But look what happened last season- things can go wrong ! There's still 60 points to play for.
The bookmakers still think that Portsmouth will finish ahead of Argyle.

I hope the board can finance a couple of QUALITY signings, Not other team's rejects.

I can't find a bookmaker who thinks that Portsmouth will finish above Argyle. You can now get 8/1 against Portsmouth and the best odds against Argyle is 4/1.

I hope they're right.

 

[Mr Gillingham]

82

 

[CornishGreenWhite]

Another win.

28 points needed. 9 wins would all but do it.

We've got this.

:clap:

 

[Spion Kopter]

Winning games is all about scoring goals. Scoring more goals than the opposition.
I've looked at the total no. of goals scored in the last 10 games by the teams that we are to play between now and the end of the season and then compared these totals with the total no. of goals scored in the last 10 games by Argyle!

To attempt to predict the results of each of the matches Argyle have to play, I've compared the average no. of goals per game scored by Argyle with each of the opposition teams. Argyle's average divided by the opposition average provides a ratio. For instance, if the ratio is 2.00, Argyle score twice as many goals per match as the opposition team. If the ratio is 0.5, the opposition team score twice as many goals per match as Argyle. I haven't taken goals only scored at home or goals only scored away, to correspond to whether the matches are being played at home or away by Argyle, but this is an obvious refinement to try later!!

For the analysis initially, I assumed that if the ratio is 1.50 or more Argyle will win, if the ratio is between 1.20 and 1.49, it will be a draw, and less than 1.20 and it is a loss.

To make things more conservative, I then also tried changing this to 1.80 or more for the win, between 1.30 and 1.79 for the draw, and less than 1.30 it's a loss.

The results are as follows, with points totals after each game, in each case:-

ARGYLE 17 goals in 10 games, 1.7 goals per match (compare this with opposition teams' goals per match to arrive at the ratio).
EXE SH1TTY(H) 28 goals, 2.80 goals per match, Argyle ratio 0.60, Argyle loss (57 points), conservative: Argyle loss (57 points)
LEYTON O(H) 9 goals, 0.90 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.88, Argyle win (60 points), conservative: Argyle win (60 points)
HARTLEPOOL(A) 9 goals, 0.90 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.88, Argyle win (63 points), conservative: Argyle win (63 points)
LUTON(A) 14 goals, 1.40 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.21, Argyle draw (64 points), conservative: Argyle loss (63 points)
NOTTS C(H) 6 goals, 0.60 goals per match, Argyle ratio 2.83, Argyle win (67 points), conservative: Argyle win (66 points)
CARLISLE(H) 14 goals, 1.40 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.21, Argyle draw (68 points), conservative: Argyle loss (66 points)
BLACKPOOL(H) 10 goals, 1.00 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.70, Argyle win (71 points), conservative: Argyle draw (67 points)
MANSFIELD(A) 12 goals, 1.20 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.41, Argyle draw (72 points), conservative: Argyle draw (68 points)
WYCOMBE(A) 16 goals, 1.60 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.06, Argyle loss (72 points), conservative: Argyle loss (68 points)
MORECAMBE(H) 13 goals, 1.30 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.30, Argyle draw (73 points), conservative: Argyle draw (69 points)
DONCASTER(A) 17 goals, 1.70 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.00, Argyle loss (73 points), conservative: Argyle loss (69 points)
ACCRINGTON(H) 7 goals, 0.70 goals per match, Argyle ratio 2.42, Argyle win (76 points), conservative: Argyle win (72 points)
CRAWLEY(A) 15 goals, 1.50 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.13, Argyle loss (76 points), conservative: Argyle loss (72 points)
POMPEY(A) 9 goals, 0.90 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.88, Argyle win (79 points), conservative: Argyle win (75 points)
NEWPORT(H) 11 goals, 1.10 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.54, Argyle win (82 points), conservative: Argyle draw (76 points)
COLCHESTER(A) 19 goals, 1.90 goals per match, Argyle ratio 0.89, Argyle loss (82 points), conservative: Argyle loss (76 points)
CREWE(H) 4 goals, 0.40 goals per match, Argyle ratio 4.25, Argyle win (85 points), conservative: Argyle win (79 points)
GRIMSBY(A) 9 goals, 0.90 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.88, Argyle win (88 points), conservative: Argyle win (82 points)

By my reckoning, Argyle should get automatic promotion, although with the conservative approach it could be a close run thing!! I'm still confident though, as we should hammer Exeter despite what the no. of goals scored says, because Exeter will always have that underlying inferiority complex, especially when playing at Home Park!! (An extra 3 points there then!!)

I appreciate that choosing arbitrary ratios for win, draw or lose doesn't mean anything in the real world of football, but if nothing else the no. of goals scored by each team in the last 10 games does to some extent show how weak or strong they are and is a pointer to how the games might go with Argyle!!

COYG!! You're doing great right now! You can do this - I've virtually proved it above!! :scarf:

 

[Knibbsworth]

It has been commented on how difficult our away run in is. The flip side of that is the home run is relatively easy - on paper! 6 home wins out of 9 and a point a game away may just about be enough. Doesnt sound that difficult.

Difficult for who, us?

We have the best away record in the division, 10 wins from 14 on the road and also a clean sheet at Anfield.

Who do you suggest we need to be afraid of?

 

[Tynan's Dad]

Winning games is all about scoring goals. Scoring more goals than the opposition.
I've looked at the total no. of goals scored in the last 10 games by the teams that we are to play between now and the end of the season and then compared these totals with the total no. of goals scored in the last 10 games by Argyle!

To attempt to predict the results of each of the matches Argyle have to play, I've compared the average no. of goals per game scored by Argyle with each of the opposition teams. Argyle's average divided by the opposition average provides a ratio. For instance, if the ratio is 2.00, Argyle score twice as many goals per match as the opposition team. If the ratio is 0.5, the opposition team score twice as many goals per match as Argyle. I haven't taken goals only scored at home or goals only scored away, to correspond to whether the matches are being played at home or away by Argyle, but this is an obvious refinement to try later!!

For the analysis initially, I assumed that if the ratio is 1.50 or more Argyle will win, if the ratio is between 1.20 and 1.49, it will be a draw, and less than 1.20 and it is a loss.

To make things more conservative, I then also tried changing this to 1.80 or more for the win, between 1.30 and 1.79 for the draw, and less than 1.30 it's a loss.

The results are as follows, with points totals after each game, in each case:-

ARGYLE 17 goals in 10 games, 1.7 goals per match (compare this with opposition teams' goals per match to arrive at the ratio).
EXE SH1TTY(H) 28 goals, 2.80 goals per match, Argyle ratio 0.60, Argyle loss (57 points), conservative: Argyle loss (57 points)
LEYTON O(H) 9 goals, 0.90 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.88, Argyle win (60 points), conservative: Argyle win (60 points)
HARTLEPOOL(A) 9 goals, 0.90 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.88, Argyle win (63 points), conservative: Argyle win (63 points)
LUTON(A) 14 goals, 1.40 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.21, Argyle draw (64 points), conservative: Argyle loss (63 points)
NOTTS C(H) 6 goals, 0.60 goals per match, Argyle ratio 2.83, Argyle win (67 points), conservative: Argyle win (66 points)
CARLISLE(H) 14 goals, 1.40 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.21, Argyle draw (68 points), conservative: Argyle loss (66 points)
BLACKPOOL(H) 10 goals, 1.00 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.70, Argyle win (71 points), conservative: Argyle draw (67 points)
MANSFIELD(A) 12 goals, 1.20 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.41, Argyle draw (72 points), conservative: Argyle draw (68 points)
WYCOMBE(A) 16 goals, 1.60 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.06, Argyle loss (72 points), conservative: Argyle loss (68 points)
MORECAMBE(H) 13 goals, 1.30 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.30, Argyle draw (73 points), conservative: Argyle draw (69 points)
DONCASTER(A) 17 goals, 1.70 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.00, Argyle loss (73 points), conservative: Argyle loss (69 points)
ACCRINGTON(H) 7 goals, 0.70 goals per match, Argyle ratio 2.42, Argyle win (76 points), conservative: Argyle win (72 points)
CRAWLEY(A) 15 goals, 1.50 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.13, Argyle loss (76 points), conservative: Argyle loss (72 points)
POMPEY(A) 9 goals, 0.90 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.88, Argyle win (79 points), conservative: Argyle win (75 points)
NEWPORT(H) 11 goals, 1.10 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.54, Argyle win (82 points), conservative: Argyle draw (76 points)
COLCHESTER(A) 19 goals, 1.90 goals per match, Argyle ratio 0.89, Argyle loss (82 points), conservative: Argyle loss (76 points)
CREWE(H) 4 goals, 0.40 goals per match, Argyle ratio 4.25, Argyle win (85 points), conservative: Argyle win (79 points)
GRIMSBY(A) 9 goals, 0.90 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.88, Argyle win (88 points), conservative: Argyle win (82 points)

By my reckoning, Argyle should get automatic promotion, although with the conservative approach it could be a close run thing!! I'm still confident though, as we should hammer Exeter despite what the no. of goals scored says, because Exeter will always have that underlying inferiority complex, especially when playing at Home Park!! (An extra 3 points there then!!)

I appreciate that choosing arbitrary ratios for win, draw or lose doesn't mean anything in the real world of football, but if nothing else the no. of goals scored by each team in the last 10 games does to some extent show how weak or strong they are and is a pointer to how the games might go with Argyle!!

COYG!! You're doing great right now! You can do this - I've virtually proved it above!! :scarf:

I love spending hours on randomness like this! I use s imilar type of thing when picking accumulators, but comparing the home teams scoring record with the away teams defensive record to suggest how many the home team will score, then the opposite for the away teams goals.

 

[rsp4]

Winning games is all about scoring goals. Scoring more goals than the opposition.
I've looked at the total no. of goals scored in the last 10 games by the teams that we are to play between now and the end of the season and then compared these totals with the total no. of goals scored in the last 10 games by Argyle!

To attempt to predict the results of each of the matches Argyle have to play, I've compared the average no. of goals per game scored by Argyle with each of the opposition teams. Argyle's average divided by the opposition average provides a ratio. For instance, if the ratio is 2.00, Argyle score twice as many goals per match as the opposition team. If the ratio is 0.5, the opposition team score twice as many goals per match as Argyle. I haven't taken goals only scored at home or goals only scored away, to correspond to whether the matches are being played at home or away by Argyle, but this is an obvious refinement to try later!!

For the analysis initially, I assumed that if the ratio is 1.50 or more Argyle will win, if the ratio is between 1.20 and 1.49, it will be a draw, and less than 1.20 and it is a loss.

To make things more conservative, I then also tried changing this to 1.80 or more for the win, between 1.30 and 1.79 for the draw, and less than 1.30 it's a loss.

The results are as follows, with points totals after each game, in each case:-

ARGYLE 17 goals in 10 games, 1.7 goals per match (compare this with opposition teams' goals per match to arrive at the ratio).
EXE SH1TTY(H) 28 goals, 2.80 goals per match, Argyle ratio 0.60, Argyle loss (57 points), conservative: Argyle loss (57 points)
LEYTON O(H) 9 goals, 0.90 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.88, Argyle win (60 points), conservative: Argyle win (60 points)
HARTLEPOOL(A) 9 goals, 0.90 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.88, Argyle win (63 points), conservative: Argyle win (63 points)
LUTON(A) 14 goals, 1.40 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.21, Argyle draw (64 points), conservative: Argyle loss (63 points)
NOTTS C(H) 6 goals, 0.60 goals per match, Argyle ratio 2.83, Argyle win (67 points), conservative: Argyle win (66 points)
CARLISLE(H) 14 goals, 1.40 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.21, Argyle draw (68 points), conservative: Argyle loss (66 points)
BLACKPOOL(H) 10 goals, 1.00 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.70, Argyle win (71 points), conservative: Argyle draw (67 points)
MANSFIELD(A) 12 goals, 1.20 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.41, Argyle draw (72 points), conservative: Argyle draw (68 points)
WYCOMBE(A) 16 goals, 1.60 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.06, Argyle loss (72 points), conservative: Argyle loss (68 points)
MORECAMBE(H) 13 goals, 1.30 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.30, Argyle draw (73 points), conservative: Argyle draw (69 points)
DONCASTER(A) 17 goals, 1.70 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.00, Argyle loss (73 points), conservative: Argyle loss (69 points)
ACCRINGTON(H) 7 goals, 0.70 goals per match, Argyle ratio 2.42, Argyle win (76 points), conservative: Argyle win (72 points)
CRAWLEY(A) 15 goals, 1.50 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.13, Argyle loss (76 points), conservative: Argyle loss (72 points)
POMPEY(A) 9 goals, 0.90 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.88, Argyle win (79 points), conservative: Argyle win (75 points)
NEWPORT(H) 11 goals, 1.10 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.54, Argyle win (82 points), conservative: Argyle draw (76 points)
COLCHESTER(A) 19 goals, 1.90 goals per match, Argyle ratio 0.89, Argyle loss (82 points), conservative: Argyle loss (76 points)
CREWE(H) 4 goals, 0.40 goals per match, Argyle ratio 4.25, Argyle win (85 points), conservative: Argyle win (79 points)
GRIMSBY(A) 9 goals, 0.90 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.88, Argyle win (88 points), conservative: Argyle win (82 points)

By my reckoning, Argyle should get automatic promotion, although with the conservative approach it could be a close run thing!! I'm still confident though, as we should hammer Exeter despite what the no. of goals scored says, because Exeter will always have that underlying inferiority complex, especially when playing at Home Park!! (An extra 3 points there then!!)

I appreciate that choosing arbitrary ratios for win, draw or lose doesn't mean anything in the real world of football, but if nothing else the no. of goals scored by each team in the last 10 games does to some extent show how weak or strong they are and is a pointer to how the games might go with Argyle!!

COYG!! You're doing great right now! You can do this - I've virtually proved it above!! :scarf:

Wow that is some thread with maths involved. When I get a chance I will read through it. Well done on taking the time out.
Personally Im not looking at the point required argument until Easter last year hurt too much :-(

 

[GreenArmy1984]

15 Games To Go !!

7 Home ( Notts County , Carlisle , Blackpool , Morecambe , Accrington , Newport , Crewe )

8 Away ( Luton , Mansfield , Wycombe , Doncaster , Crawley , Portsmouth , Colchester , Grimsby )

 

[John Cooper]

Promotion at dog Pooh City is still a possibility

 

[Guiri Green]

Winning games is all about scoring goals. Scoring more goals than the opposition.
I've looked at the total no. of goals scored in the last 10 games by the teams that we are to play between now and the end of the season and then compared these totals with the total no. of goals scored in the last 10 games by Argyle!

To attempt to predict the results of each of the matches Argyle have to play, I've compared the average no. of goals per game scored by Argyle with each of the opposition teams. Argyle's average divided by the opposition average provides a ratio. For instance, if the ratio is 2.00, Argyle score twice as many goals per match as the opposition team. If the ratio is 0.5, the opposition team score twice as many goals per match as Argyle. I haven't taken goals only scored at home or goals only scored away, to correspond to whether the matches are being played at home or away by Argyle, but this is an obvious refinement to try later!!

For the analysis initially, I assumed that if the ratio is 1.50 or more Argyle will win, if the ratio is between 1.20 and 1.49, it will be a draw, and less than 1.20 and it is a loss.

To make things more conservative, I then also tried changing this to 1.80 or more for the win, between 1.30 and 1.79 for the draw, and less than 1.30 it's a loss.

The results are as follows, with points totals after each game, in each case:-

ARGYLE 17 goals in 10 games, 1.7 goals per match (compare this with opposition teams' goals per match to arrive at the ratio).
EXE SH1TTY(H) 28 goals, 2.80 goals per match, Argyle ratio 0.60, Argyle loss (57 points), conservative: Argyle loss (57 points)
LEYTON O(H) 9 goals, 0.90 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.88, Argyle win (60 points), conservative: Argyle win (60 points)
HARTLEPOOL(A) 9 goals, 0.90 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.88, Argyle win (63 points), conservative: Argyle win (63 points)
LUTON(A) 14 goals, 1.40 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.21, Argyle draw (64 points), conservative: Argyle loss (63 points)
NOTTS C(H) 6 goals, 0.60 goals per match, Argyle ratio 2.83, Argyle win (67 points), conservative: Argyle win (66 points)
CARLISLE(H) 14 goals, 1.40 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.21, Argyle draw (68 points), conservative: Argyle loss (66 points)
BLACKPOOL(H) 10 goals, 1.00 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.70, Argyle win (71 points), conservative: Argyle draw (67 points)
MANSFIELD(A) 12 goals, 1.20 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.41, Argyle draw (72 points), conservative: Argyle draw (68 points)
WYCOMBE(A) 16 goals, 1.60 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.06, Argyle loss (72 points), conservative: Argyle loss (68 points)
MORECAMBE(H) 13 goals, 1.30 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.30, Argyle draw (73 points), conservative: Argyle draw (69 points)
DONCASTER(A) 17 goals, 1.70 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.00, Argyle loss (73 points), conservative: Argyle loss (69 points)
ACCRINGTON(H) 7 goals, 0.70 goals per match, Argyle ratio 2.42, Argyle win (76 points), conservative: Argyle win (72 points)
CRAWLEY(A) 15 goals, 1.50 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.13, Argyle loss (76 points), conservative: Argyle loss (72 points)
POMPEY(A) 9 goals, 0.90 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.88, Argyle win (79 points), conservative: Argyle win (75 points)
NEWPORT(H) 11 goals, 1.10 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.54, Argyle win (82 points), conservative: Argyle draw (76 points)
COLCHESTER(A) 19 goals, 1.90 goals per match, Argyle ratio 0.89, Argyle loss (82 points), conservative: Argyle loss (76 points)
CREWE(H) 4 goals, 0.40 goals per match, Argyle ratio 4.25, Argyle win (85 points), conservative: Argyle win (79 points)
GRIMSBY(A) 9 goals, 0.90 goals per match, Argyle ratio 1.88, Argyle win (88 points), conservative: Argyle win (82 points)

By my reckoning, Argyle should get automatic promotion, although with the conservative approach it could be a close run thing!! I'm still confident though, as we should hammer Exeter despite what the no. of goals scored says, because Exeter will always have that underlying inferiority complex, especially when playing at Home Park!! (An extra 3 points there then!!)

I appreciate that choosing arbitrary ratios for win, draw or lose doesn't mean anything in the real world of football, but if nothing else the no. of goals scored by each team in the last 10 games does to some extent show how weak or strong they are and is a pointer to how the games might go with Argyle!!

COYG!! You're doing great right now! You can do this - I've virtually proved it above!! :scarf:

I'm sticking with whoever scores most wins and gets the 3 points

 

[Princerock]

It has been commented on how difficult our away run in is. The flip side of that is the home run is relatively easy - on paper! 6 home wins out of 9 and a point a game away may just about be enough. Doesnt sound that difficult.

Difficult for who, us?

We have the best away record in the division, 10 wins from 14 on the road and also a clean sheet at Anfield.

Who do you suggest we need to be afraid of?

Wrong.......Exeter have got 31 pts away.....we have only 30 pts.

 

[CornishGreenWhite]

How good would promotion be at Portsmouth? Don't want to tempt fate but in the Premiership teams aim for 40 points for survival, in League two teams aim for 45 points for survival, we should be targeting 85+ points for promotion.

Next weeks game is our biggest of the season, win that and we'll have one foot in league 1's door.

:silent: